变时间尺度的风光互补发电短期功率预测技术

该文探究适用于风光互补发电系统的变时间尺度短期功率预测技术。风力发电机组的功率预测模型以风速作为输入参数,光伏发电机组的功率预测模型以温度和光照强度作为输入参数。经过数据校正模块、地形变化模块、辐射量计算模块、功率预测模块的处理后,准确预测输出功率。在此基础上使用Simulink仿真软件构建风光互补发电模型,采集一天的风速和太阳能辐射数据作为输出量,仿真结果表明该模型的实际输出功率和期望输出功率基本一致,变时间尺度的短期功率预测技术达到预期效果,有助于实现风光互补发电系统的可靠并网。

基于模型预测控制的主动配电网多场景变时间尺度优化调度

针对源荷预测误差对主动配电网调度影响较大的问题,充分考虑源荷数据相关性,提出基于模型预测控制(MPC)的主动配电网多场景变时间尺度优化调度策略。在日前、日内优化阶段,采用藤Copula模型描述源荷相关性,结合场景生成与削减技术形成源荷出力场景,以多场景下配电网期望运行成本最小为目标建立优化模型,求解配电网中机组、储能、无功补偿装置等可调资源运行状态及出力情况;在实时优化阶段,采用MPC思想,以可调资源调整量最小为目标,提出场景相似度的概念以及自适应追踪最优轨迹的方法,得到基于滚动优化和反馈以及最优参考轨迹的实时调度。采用修改后的IEEE 33节点系统验证了所提优化策略的可行性。

基于变时间尺度的风力发电功率短期预测方法的研究

在不同的变时间尺度下,风力发电功率的短期预测效果是不完全相同的。鉴于每年的统计周期对风力发电功率的预测不能反映在不同时间尺度下发电功率的变化问题,结合风力发电的物理模型和相关历史数据,提出一种基于变时间尺度的风力发电功率短期预测方法。

一种跟踪风光互补发电系统计划出力的变时间尺度短期功率预测方法

引入各发电组件的短期功率预测值有助于风光互补发电系统制定优化的能量分配策略,更好地跟踪计划出力。针对风光互补发电系统能量分配周期多变的特点,提出了一种变时间尺度的短期功率预测算法。该算法将历史数据与物理模型相结合,可获得各发电组件任何时间间隔的短期功率预测值,进而实现对于计划出力的最大程度跟踪。基于某风光互补发电站数据的仿真结果表明,基于历史数据与物理模型相结合的预测方法可更准确地实现能量分配变周期下的计划跟踪。

基于可靠性量化的微电网变时间尺度协调调度策略

随着光伏发电(Photovoltaic Power,PV)接入微电网渗透率的增加,其出力的波动性和不可控性导致常规机组的调节压力不断增大,在保证系统供电可靠性前提下如何实现微电网的经济调度已成为研究的热点。将系统供电可靠性分为安全性和充裕性两个指标分别进行量化,并将其作为改变日内调度时间尺度的约束判据,提出一种变时间尺度的协调调度模型:当预测PV发电量波动较小时,增大调度时间尺度以节约调度计算资源;而当预测PV发电量波动较大时,通过减小调度时间尺度提高预测的精度以保证系统可靠性要求。模型中,在日前通过短期预测制定机组运行和备用容量计划;在日内利用模糊函数计算PV预测误差隶属度,与不同可靠性量化的约束判据进行比较,动态决定下一调度时间尺度。算例中分析了不同权重系数下安全性与运行费用的关系,验证了模型的正确性和求解方法的有效性。

单目视觉下目标三维行为的时间尺度不变建模及识别

提出一种单目视觉下在线识别目标三维行为的方法.该方法用匹配的标记点估计帧间相似变换,然后转换相似矩阵到对数空间以获取一致的四自由度运动参数序列.为解决持续时间敏感问题,提出基于多边形近似算法的时间尺度不变特征,并用动态规划实现特征序列的在线提取.在行为识别阶段,基于动态时间规整训练有限类别行为模板用于匹配测试行为序列.实验结果表明,该行为模板较对比方法类别可分性平均提高60%以上,并且可用于在线识别连续视频中的未知行为.

基于双扩展型Duffing振子的脉冲信号检测方法

由于混沌振子能达到比通常的信号检测方法更低的信噪比,所以得到了广泛的研究.为了拓展现有混沌振子对非周期脉冲信号检测的适用范围,提出了一种基于双扩展型Duffing振子的检测方法.该方法利用两个广义时间尺度变换Duffing振子之间的状态变量差值检测信号,通过合理选择系统参数,可以检测信噪比低至-30dB的非周期方波脉冲,比现有方法能达到更低的信号检测信噪比.通过仿真发现该方法能适用于多样的信号采样频率、很宽的信号幅值范围.

抑制光伏功率对电网影响的电池管理研究

光伏功率难以有效预测、调度和控制,通过储能系统直接与光伏并联运行,可平抑光伏功率的随机性,将其并网时对配电网电能质量的影响降到最低。主要研究使光伏发电的并网功率波动最小的电池管理方法,针对随机量的一般波动性与多尺度波动性指标,提出了对光伏功率进行完全补偿时基于定尺度窗口和变尺度窗口的电池充放电策略,通过仿真,将优化效果以及所需储能系统的容量分别进行比较,得出变尺度窗口比定尺度窗口调度电池具有更好的平抑作用。

Response of Ecosystem Respiration to Experimental Warming and Clipping at Daily Time Scale in an Alpine Meadow of Tibet

The alpine meadow, as one of the typical vegetation types on the Tibetan Plateau, is one of the most sensitive terrestrial ecosystems to climate warming. However, how climate warming affects the carbon cycling of the alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau is not very dear. A field experiment under controlled experimental warming and clipping conditions was conducted in an alpine meadow on the Northern Tibetan Plateau since July 2008. Open top chambers （0TCs） were used to simulate climate warming. The main objective of this study was to examine the responses of ecosystem respiration （Reco） and its temperature sensitivity to experimental warming and clipping at daily time scale. Therefore, we measured Reco once or twice a month from July to September in 2010, from June to September in 2011 and from August to September in 2012. Air temperature dominated daily variation of Reco whether or not experimental warming and clipping were present. Air temperature was exponentially correlated with Reco and it could significantly explain 58-96% variation of Redo at daily time scale. Experimental warming and clipping decreased daily mean Reco by 5.8-37.7% and -11.9-23.0%, respectively, although not all these changes were significant. Experimental warming tended to decrease the temperature sensitivity of Reco, whereas clipping tended to increase the temperature sensitivity of Reco at daily time scale. Our findings suggest that Reco wasmainly controlled by air temperature and may acclimate to climate warming due to its lower temperature sensitivity under experimental warming at daily time scale.

Analysis of Nonstationary Wind Fluctuations Using the Hilbert-Huang Transform

Climatological patterns in wind fluctuations on time scales of 1–10 h are analyzed at a meteorological mast at the Yangmeishan wind farm, Yunnan Province,China, using a 2-yr time series of 10-min wind speed observations. For analyzing the spectral properties of nonstationary wind fluctuations in mountain terrain, the Hilbert-Huang transform(HHT) is applied to investigate climatological patterns between wind variability and several variables including time of year, time of day, wind direction, and pressure tendency. Compared with that for offshore sites, the wind variability at Yangmeishan wind farm has a more distinct diurnal cycle, but the seasonal discrepancies and the differences according to directions are not distinct, and the synoptic influences on wind variability are weaker. There is enhanced variability in spring and winter compared with summer and autumn. For flow from the main direction sector, the maximum wind variability is observed in spring. And the severe wind fluctuations are more common when the pressure tendency is rising.

Sea surface height variations in the Mindanao Dome region in response to the northern tropical Pacific winds

Sea surface height (SSH) variability in the Mindanao Dome (MD) region is found to be one of the strong variations in the northern Pacific. It is only weaker than that in the Kuroshio Extension area, and is comparable to that in the North Pacific Subtropical Countercurrent region. Based on a 1.5-layer reduced gravity model, we analyzed SSH variations in this region and their responses to northern tropical Pacific winds. The average SSH anomaly in the region varies mainly on a seasonal scale, with significant periods of 0.5 and 1 year, ENSO time scale2-7years, and time scale in excess of 8 years. Annual and long-term variabilities are comparably stronger. These variations are essentially a response to the northern tropical Pacific winds. On seasonal and ENSO time scales, they are mainly caused by wind anomalies east of the region, which generate westward-propagating, long Rossby waves. On time scales longer than 8 years, they are mostly induced by local Ekman pumping. Long-term SSH variations in the MD region and their responses to local winds are examined and discussed for the first time .

Temporal Variations of Water Discharge and Sediment Load of Huanghe River,China

Based on the data from gauging stations, the changes in water discharge and sediment load of the Huanghe （Yellow） River were analyzed by using the empirical mode decomposition （EMD） method. The results show that the periodic oscillation of water discharge and sediment load of the Huanghe River occurs at the interannual, decadal, and multi-decadal scales, caused by the periodic oscillations of precipitation, and E1 Nifio/Southern Oscillation （ENSO） af- fects water discharge by influencing precipitation distribution and contributes to periodic varations in precipitation and water discharge at interannual timescale. The water discharge and sediment load of the Huanghe River have decreased since the 1960s under the influence of precipitation and huamn activities, and human activities attribute more than precipitation to the reduction in the water discharge and sediment load, furthermore, water abstraction and water-soil conservation practices are the main causes of the decrease in water discharge and sediment load, respectively. The reduction in sediment load has directly impacted on the lower reaches of the Huanghe River and the river delta, causing considerable erosion of the river channel in the lower reaches since the 1970s along with River Delta changing siltation into erosion around 2000.

The ocean response to climate change guides both adaptation and mitigation efforts

The ocean’s thermal inertia is a major contributor to irreversible ocean changes exceeding time scales that matter to human society.This fact is a challenge to societies as they prepare for the consequences of climate change,especially with respect to the ocean.Here the authors review the requirements for human actions from the ocean’s perspective.In the near term(∼2030),goals such as the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)will be critical.Over longer times(∼2050–2060 and beyond),global carbon neutrality targets may be met as countries continue to work toward reducing emissions.Both adaptation and mitigation plans need to be fully implemented in the interim,and the Global Ocean Observation System should be sustained so that changes can be continuously monitored.In the longer-term(after∼2060),slow emerging changes such as deep ocean warming and sea level rise are committed to continue even in the scenario where net zero emissions are reached.Thus,climate actions have to extend to time scales of hundreds of years.At these time scales,preparation for“high impact,low probability”risks—such as an abrupt showdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation,ecosystem change,or irreversible ice sheet loss—should be fully integrated into long-term planning.

Temporal and Spatial Variability of Dissolved Organic Carbon Concentration in the Xijiang River, South China

A whole year analysis of riverine dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in the Xijiang River (XJR), South China, showed that the mean riverine DOC concentration (1.24 mg L-1) in the XJR was notably lower than the averaged value (5.75 mg L-1) of the global riverine DOC concentration in several major rivers. There is an inconspicuous monthly fluctuation of the DOC signal in the XJR, but on a semi-yearly time scale, however, the riverine DOC concentration had significant difference between hydrological seasons. The DOC level during the flood season (1.18 mg L-1) was less than that during the non-flood season (1.40 mg L-1). Owing to the concomitance of the flushing and dilution effects of the runoff during the high-water period, the variation of riverine DOC concentration with discharge in the XJR differed from that reported in many other major rivers. The DOC export flux above the city of Wuzhou was about 0.62× 106 g C km-2 yr-1. The DOC transported during the "056" Massive Flood period comprised 30.35% of the annual total, while the discharge accounted for 36.32% of the total annual flow. The characteristics in riverine DOC concentration in the XJR were attributed to the combined effect of the geomorphologic, monsoon climatic and hydrological processes as well as land-use within the drainage basin.

Variability of Summer Monsoon Rainfall in India on Inter-Annual and Decadal Time Scales

Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall （ISMR） exhibits a prominent inter-annual variability known as troposphere biennial oscillation.A season of deficient June to September monsoon rainfall in India is followed by warm sea surface temperature （SST） anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean and cold SST anomalies over the westem Pacific Ocean.These anomalies persist until the following monsoon,which yields normal or excessive rainfall.Monsoon rainfall in India has shown decadal variability in the form of 30 year epochs of alternately occurring frequent and infrequent drought monsoons since 1841,when rainfall measurements began in India.Decadal oscillations of monsoon rainfall and the well known decadal oscillations in SSTs of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans have the same period of approximately 60 years and nearly the same temporal phase.In both of these variabilities,anomalies in monsoon heat source,such as deep convection,and middle latitude westerlies of the upper troposphere over south Asia have prominent roles.

Multiple Time Scale Analysis of River Runoff Using Wavelet Transform for Dagujia River Basin, Yantai, China

Based on monthly river runoff and meteorological data, a method of Morlet wavelet transform was used to analyze the multiple time scale characteristics of river runoff in the Dagujia River Basin, Yantai City, Shandong Province. The results showed that the total annual river runoffin the Dagujia River Basin decreased significantly from 1966 to 2004, and the rate of decrease was 48× 10^6ma/10yr, which was higher than the mean value of most rivers in China. Multiple time scale characteristics existed, which accounted for different aspects of the changes in annual river runoff, and the major periods of the runofftime series were identified as about 28 years, 14 years and 4 years with decreasing levels of fluctuation. The river runoff evolution process was controlled by changes in precipitation to a certain extent, but it was also greatly influenced by human activities. Also, for different time periods and scales, the impacts of climate changes and human activities on annual river runoff evolution occurred at the same time. Changes in the annual river runoffwere mainly associated with climate change before the 1980s and with human activities after 1981.

Observed dryness and wetness variability in Shanghai during 1873-2005

Dryness and wetness variations on different time scales in Shanghai were analyzed using the Standardized Precipitation Index （SPI） based on monthly precipitation data for 1873-2005. The SPI on scales of 3, 6, 12 and 24 months has been calculated. The SPI on 3, 6, 12 and 24 months present 4 wet periods prevailed during 1873-1885, 1904-1923, 1938-1960 and 1983-2005, and 3 dry episodes during 1886-1903, 1924-1937 and 1961-1982. Significant periods of higher wavelet power in the SPI-24 months occurred on the time scales of 2-7-year band in around 1880-1890, 1910-1950 and 1970-1990, and at 8-15-year band in 1920-1960 and 1965-2000 respectively. Periodicities in the SOl and ENSO indices are similar to those in SPI-24 months with little difference, namely, in the SPI-24 months, there are significant periods at the 2-7- and 8-15-year bands during 1930-1940. The periodicity components in individual SPI-24 months, SOl and ENSO indices are more complicated, showing the wetness and dryness variability in Shanghai is controlled by more than one physical factors. The research results indicate that the Shanghai area has experienced dryness and wetness variability on different time scales during the past 133 years.

Southern Ocean SST Variability and Its Relationship with ENSO on Inter-Decadal Time Scales

Empirical orthogonal function （EOF） analysis reveals a co-variability of Sea surface temperatures （SSTs） in the Southern Hemisphere （0°-60°S）. In the South Indian and Atlantic Oceans, there is a subtropical dipole pattern slanted in the southwest-northeast direction. In the South Pacific Ocean, a meridional tripole structure emerges, whose middle pole co-varies with the dipoles in the South Indian and Atlantic Oceans and is used in this study to track subtropical Pacific variability. The South Indian and Atlantic Ocean dipoles and the subtropical Pacific variability are phase-locked in austral summer. On the inter-decadal time scales, the dipoles in the South Indian and Atlantic Oceans weaken in amplitude after 1979/1980. No such weakening is found in the subtropical South Pacific Ocean. Interestingly, despite the reduced amplitude, the correlation of the Indian Ocean and Atlantic dipoles with E1 Nino and Southern Oscillation （ENSO） are enhanced after 1979/1980. The same increase in correlation is found for subtropical South Pacific variability after 1979/1980. These inter-decadal modulations imply that the Southern Hemisphere participates in part of the climate shift in the late 1970s. The correlation between Southern Hemisphere SST and ENSO reduces after 2000.

Variability of Tropical Cyclone in High Frequent Occurrence Regions over the Western North Pacific

In this study, three high frequent occurrence regions of tropical cyclones(TCs), i.e., the northern South China Sea(the region S), the south Philippine Sea(the region P) and the region east of Taiwan Island(the region E), are defined with frequency of TC's occurrence at each grid for a 45-year period(1965–2009), where the frequency of occurrence(FO) of TCs is triple the mean value of the whole western North Pacific. Over the region S, there are decreasing trends in the FO of TCs, the number of TCs' tracks going though this region and the number of TCs' genesis in this region. Over the region P, the FO and tracks demonstrate decadal variation with periods of 10–12 year, while over the region E, a significant 4–5 years' oscillation appears in both FO and tracks. It is demonstrated that the differences of TCs' variation in these three different regions are mainly caused by the variation of the Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH) at different time scales. The westward shift of WPSH is responsible for the northwesterly anomaly over the region S which inhibits westward TC movement into the region S. On the decadal timescale, the WPSH stretches northwestward because of the anomalous anticyclone over the northwestern part of the region P, and steers more TCs reaching the region P in the greater FO years of the region P. The retreating of the WPSH on the interannual time scale is the main reason for the FO's oscillation over the region E.

Climate modulation on sea surface height in China seas

The climate modulation on the sea surface height （SSH） in China seas is investigated using a China Ocean Reanalysis （CORA） dataset from 1958-2008. The dataset is constructed by assimilating the temperature/salinity profiles derived from the satellite altimetry data and historical observational temperature/salinity profiles. Based on the Empirical Orthogonal Function （EOF）, the CORA sea surface height anomaly （SSHa） is decomposed, and the interannual and decadal variability of the first three leading modes are analyzed. On the interannual timescale, the first principal component （PC1） is significant positively correlated with the E1 Nifio/Southern Oscillation （ENSO）. On the decadal timescale, North Pacific Gyre Oscillation （NPGO） has significant negative correlation with PC 1 whereas Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） is in phase with PC3. Analysis shows that the decadal variability of SSH is mainly modulated by the wind stress curl variability related to the NPGO and PDO. In addition, the effect of net heat flux associated to the NPGO and PDO on SSH is also investigated, with net heat flux variability in the Luzon strait and tropic Pacific found to influence the decadal variability of SSH.