The possible anthropogenic aerosol effect on regional precipitation is analyzed based on the historical data of precipitation and visibility of North China. At first, the precipitation amounts from 1960 to 1979 are co...The possible anthropogenic aerosol effect on regional precipitation is analyzed based on the historical data of precipitation and visibility of North China. At first, the precipitation amounts from 1960 to 1979 are considered as natural background values in our study for relatively less intensive industrial activi- ties and light air pollution during that period of time, then the region is divided into different subregions by applying the clustering method including the significance test of station rainfall correlations to the time series of 10-day mean rainfall amounts in this period. Based on the rule that the precipitation characteristics are similar in the same clustering region, the correlation of precipitation amounts among all stations in each region is thus established. Secondly, for the period from 1990 to 2005, during which, the economy had experienced a rapid development in this region, the variations of visibility at each station are analyzed. The stations with the absolute change in visibility less than 0.1 km/a are used as the reference stations, at which it is assumed that precipitation has not been seriously influ- enced by anthropogenic aerosols. Then the rainfall amounts of reference stations are used to estimate the natural precipitation values of the other stations in each clustering region. The difference between estimated precipitation and measured precipitation amount is thought to result from changes in an- thropogenic aerosols. These changes in precipitation amounts caused by anthropogenic aerosols at each station are calculated using the 10-day mean rainfall values from 1990 to 2005. The analysis re- sults obtained with this method are remarkable if it passes the significance test, and therefore, the suppression of regional precipitation over the region by anthropogenic aerosol is proved. It is found that this effect is most remarkable in summer. The influence of anthropogenic aerosols on convective precipitation possibly plays an important role in this season.展开更多
基金Supported by National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2006CB403706)National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40475003)
文摘The possible anthropogenic aerosol effect on regional precipitation is analyzed based on the historical data of precipitation and visibility of North China. At first, the precipitation amounts from 1960 to 1979 are considered as natural background values in our study for relatively less intensive industrial activi- ties and light air pollution during that period of time, then the region is divided into different subregions by applying the clustering method including the significance test of station rainfall correlations to the time series of 10-day mean rainfall amounts in this period. Based on the rule that the precipitation characteristics are similar in the same clustering region, the correlation of precipitation amounts among all stations in each region is thus established. Secondly, for the period from 1990 to 2005, during which, the economy had experienced a rapid development in this region, the variations of visibility at each station are analyzed. The stations with the absolute change in visibility less than 0.1 km/a are used as the reference stations, at which it is assumed that precipitation has not been seriously influ- enced by anthropogenic aerosols. Then the rainfall amounts of reference stations are used to estimate the natural precipitation values of the other stations in each clustering region. The difference between estimated precipitation and measured precipitation amount is thought to result from changes in an- thropogenic aerosols. These changes in precipitation amounts caused by anthropogenic aerosols at each station are calculated using the 10-day mean rainfall values from 1990 to 2005. The analysis re- sults obtained with this method are remarkable if it passes the significance test, and therefore, the suppression of regional precipitation over the region by anthropogenic aerosol is proved. It is found that this effect is most remarkable in summer. The influence of anthropogenic aerosols on convective precipitation possibly plays an important role in this season.
