Different driving decisions will cause different processes of phase transition in traffic flow. To reveal the inner mechanism, this paper built a new cellular automaton （CA） model, based on the driving decision （DD...Different driving decisions will cause different processes of phase transition in traffic flow. To reveal the inner mechanism, this paper built a new cellular automaton （CA） model, based on the driving decision （DD）. In the DD model, a driver＇s decision is divided into three stages： decision-making, action, and result. The acceleration is taken as a decision variable and three core factors, i.e. distance between adjacent vehicles, their own velocity, and the preceding vehicle＇s velocity, are considered. Simulation results show that the DD model can simulate the synchronized flow effectively and describe the phase transition in traffic flow well. Further analyses illustrate that various density will cause the phase transition and the random probability will impact the process. Compared with the traditional NaSch model, the DD model considered the preceding vehicle＇s velocity, the deceleration limitation, and a safe distance, so it can depict closer to the driver preferences on pursuing safety, stability and fuel-saving and has strong theoretical innovation for future studies.展开更多
Runoff series of the Yangtze River presents an intricate variation tendency under the reinforced influence of human activities.The Morlet Wavelet Transform method has been applied to analyze the annual runoff data fro...Runoff series of the Yangtze River presents an intricate variation tendency under the reinforced influence of human activities.The Morlet Wavelet Transform method has been applied to analyze the annual runoff data from 1950 to 2011 at the Yangtze River Estuary.It can clearly reveal the multi-time scales structure,break point,change and distribution of periodic variation in the different time scales of the runoff series.The main conclusions are that:1) Repeated periodic oscillations accompanied by an extremely large fluctuation are presented in the runoff series with an obvious difference between wet and dry years,and the major periods of the time series are about 3,8,16 and 23 years respectively.Among them,the presented maximum periodic oscillation is 23 years scale.2) In the 23-year time scale,the wet periods are 1950-1958,1969-1980 and 1992-2003,and the dry periods are 1959-1968,1981-1991 and 2004-2011.3) It can be predicted from the view of long time scales that the low annual runoff will likely occur in the near future.展开更多
In order to effectively analyse the multivariate time series data of complex process,a generic reconstruction technology based on reduction theory of rough sets was proposed,Firstly,the phase space of multivariate tim...In order to effectively analyse the multivariate time series data of complex process,a generic reconstruction technology based on reduction theory of rough sets was proposed,Firstly,the phase space of multivariate time series was originally reconstructed by a classical reconstruction technology.Then,the original decision-table of rough set theory was set up according to the embedding dimensions and time-delays of the original reconstruction phase space,and the rough set reduction was used to delete the redundant dimensions and irrelevant variables and to reconstruct the generic phase space,Finally,the input vectors for the prediction of multivariate time series were extracted according to generic reconstruction results to identify the parameters of prediction model.Verification results show that the developed reconstruction method leads to better generalization ability for the prediction model and it is feasible and worthwhile for application.展开更多
The parameters of principal and directional extrema in a marine environment are important in marine engineering design, especially for appropriate construction of oceanic platforms and other structures. When designing...The parameters of principal and directional extrema in a marine environment are important in marine engineering design, especially for appropriate construction of oceanic platforms and other structures. When designing wave walls and break water structures, the orientation of the breakwater or seawall depends mainly on the direction of the strongest waves. However, the strength of the breakwater and the elevation of the seawall depend on the magnitude of the biggest wave height of the strongest waves. Thus, identification of directional extrema plays an important role in the design of wave factors. When calculating the directional extremum, different materials may require different specific computational methods, yet few theoretical studies have been conducted in this field of research. Based on multivariate extremnm statistical theory, this paper utilizes a discrete random variable to build a joint probability model compounded by a discrete random variable and a multivariate continuous random variable. Furthermore, this paper provides the first investigation on the theories and methodologies to deduce wave directional extrema. The results provide tools for both creating the calculation method of the directional extremum value and providing the rational directional extremum parameters for marine engineering design.展开更多
A systems approach is used to describe the generation and variation of wastewater in an urban area. This is a multivariable system and its combined response at the outlet of this system, which is usually the entrance ...A systems approach is used to describe the generation and variation of wastewater in an urban area. This is a multivariable system and its combined response at the outlet of this system, which is usually the entrance ofa wastewater treatment plant, depends on a number of environmental （precipitation and temperature） as well as social （size of the urban area, population changes, water consumption per capita） variables. There is a large number of available models and tools for describing the urban water system, however, the interactions between the individual components are rarely considered within the same modelling framework. In this paper a parsimonious methodology is proposed in order to understand and estimate the wastewater generation and its characteristics in an urban area using any information provided by the available data. The model incorporates both the flows of stormwater discharge and wastewater production that arrive to the wastewater treatment plant. A state dependent variable is introduced to simulate the consumptive uses in the urban area. Data availability and system＇s complexity affect the ability to achieve enhanced model performance, however, in the presented case study, preliminary results from the application of the presented model in the Greater Athens Area illustrate the potential of the conceptual modelling approach.展开更多
基金Supported by the Program for National High-Tech Research and Development Program of China under Grant No 2007AA11Z233National Key Technology R & D Program under Grant No. 2009BAG13A06China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Funded Project under Grant No. 20090450395
文摘Different driving decisions will cause different processes of phase transition in traffic flow. To reveal the inner mechanism, this paper built a new cellular automaton （CA） model, based on the driving decision （DD）. In the DD model, a driver＇s decision is divided into three stages： decision-making, action, and result. The acceleration is taken as a decision variable and three core factors, i.e. distance between adjacent vehicles, their own velocity, and the preceding vehicle＇s velocity, are considered. Simulation results show that the DD model can simulate the synchronized flow effectively and describe the phase transition in traffic flow well. Further analyses illustrate that various density will cause the phase transition and the random probability will impact the process. Compared with the traditional NaSch model, the DD model considered the preceding vehicle＇s velocity, the deceleration limitation, and a safe distance, so it can depict closer to the driver preferences on pursuing safety, stability and fuel-saving and has strong theoretical innovation for future studies.
基金supported by the National Key Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB957704) Marine Public Welfare Program of China (Grant No. 201305003)
文摘Runoff series of the Yangtze River presents an intricate variation tendency under the reinforced influence of human activities.The Morlet Wavelet Transform method has been applied to analyze the annual runoff data from 1950 to 2011 at the Yangtze River Estuary.It can clearly reveal the multi-time scales structure,break point,change and distribution of periodic variation in the different time scales of the runoff series.The main conclusions are that:1) Repeated periodic oscillations accompanied by an extremely large fluctuation are presented in the runoff series with an obvious difference between wet and dry years,and the major periods of the time series are about 3,8,16 and 23 years respectively.Among them,the presented maximum periodic oscillation is 23 years scale.2) In the 23-year time scale,the wet periods are 1950-1958,1969-1980 and 1992-2003,and the dry periods are 1959-1968,1981-1991 and 2004-2011.3) It can be predicted from the view of long time scales that the low annual runoff will likely occur in the near future.
基金Project(61025015) supported by the National Natural Science Funds for Distinguished Young Scholars of ChinaProject(21106036) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China+2 种基金Project(200805331103) supported by Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of ChinaProject(NCET-08-0576) supported by Program for New Century Excellent Talents in Universities of ChinaProject(11B038) supported by Scientific Research Fund for the Excellent Youth Scholars of Hunan Provincial Education Department,China
文摘In order to effectively analyse the multivariate time series data of complex process,a generic reconstruction technology based on reduction theory of rough sets was proposed,Firstly,the phase space of multivariate time series was originally reconstructed by a classical reconstruction technology.Then,the original decision-table of rough set theory was set up according to the embedding dimensions and time-delays of the original reconstruction phase space,and the rough set reduction was used to delete the redundant dimensions and irrelevant variables and to reconstruct the generic phase space,Finally,the input vectors for the prediction of multivariate time series were extracted according to generic reconstruction results to identify the parameters of prediction model.Verification results show that the developed reconstruction method leads to better generalization ability for the prediction model and it is feasible and worthwhile for application.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40776006)Shanghai Typhoon Research Fund (No.2009ST05)
文摘The parameters of principal and directional extrema in a marine environment are important in marine engineering design, especially for appropriate construction of oceanic platforms and other structures. When designing wave walls and break water structures, the orientation of the breakwater or seawall depends mainly on the direction of the strongest waves. However, the strength of the breakwater and the elevation of the seawall depend on the magnitude of the biggest wave height of the strongest waves. Thus, identification of directional extrema plays an important role in the design of wave factors. When calculating the directional extremum, different materials may require different specific computational methods, yet few theoretical studies have been conducted in this field of research. Based on multivariate extremnm statistical theory, this paper utilizes a discrete random variable to build a joint probability model compounded by a discrete random variable and a multivariate continuous random variable. Furthermore, this paper provides the first investigation on the theories and methodologies to deduce wave directional extrema. The results provide tools for both creating the calculation method of the directional extremum value and providing the rational directional extremum parameters for marine engineering design.
文摘A systems approach is used to describe the generation and variation of wastewater in an urban area. This is a multivariable system and its combined response at the outlet of this system, which is usually the entrance ofa wastewater treatment plant, depends on a number of environmental （precipitation and temperature） as well as social （size of the urban area, population changes, water consumption per capita） variables. There is a large number of available models and tools for describing the urban water system, however, the interactions between the individual components are rarely considered within the same modelling framework. In this paper a parsimonious methodology is proposed in order to understand and estimate the wastewater generation and its characteristics in an urban area using any information provided by the available data. The model incorporates both the flows of stormwater discharge and wastewater production that arrive to the wastewater treatment plant. A state dependent variable is introduced to simulate the consumptive uses in the urban area. Data availability and system＇s complexity affect the ability to achieve enhanced model performance, however, in the presented case study, preliminary results from the application of the presented model in the Greater Athens Area illustrate the potential of the conceptual modelling approach.
