Operational reliability evaluation theory reflects real-time reliability level of power system. The component failure rate varies with operating conditions. The impact of real-time operating conditions such as ambient...Operational reliability evaluation theory reflects real-time reliability level of power system. The component failure rate varies with operating conditions. The impact of real-time operating conditions such as ambient temperature and transformer MVA (megavolt-ampere) loading on transformer insulation life is studied in this paper. The formula of transformer failure rate based on the winding hottest-spot temperature (HST) is given. Thus the real-time reliability model of transformer based on oper- ating conditions is presented. The work is illustrated using the 1979 IEEE Reliability Test System. The changes of operating conditions are simulated by using hourly load curve and temperature curve, so the curves of real-time reliability indices are ob- tained by using operational reliability evaluation.展开更多
Drought is one of the major natural disasters causing huge agricultural losses annually. Regional agricultural drought risk assessment has great significance for reducing regional disaster and agricultural drought los...Drought is one of the major natural disasters causing huge agricultural losses annually. Regional agricultural drought risk assessment has great significance for reducing regional disaster and agricultural drought losses. Based on the fuzzy characteristics of agricultural drought risk, variable fuzzy sets model was used for comprehensively assessing agricultural drought risk of Liaoning Province in China. A multi-layers and multi-indices assessment model was estab-lished according to variable fuzzy sets theory, and agricultural drought risk of all 14 prefecture-level cities was respec-tively estimated in terms of dangerousness, vulnerability, exposure and drought-resistibility. By calculating the combi-nation weights of four drought risk factors, agricultural drought risk grade of each city was obtained. Based on the as-sessment results, the spatial distribution maps of agricultural drought risk were drawn. The results shows that eastern cities have lower drought dangerousness than western cities in Liaoning Province totally. Most cities are located in low drought vulnerability region and high drought exposure region. Because of frequent and severe drought since 2000, most cities are located in lower drought-resistibility region. Comprehensive agricultural drought risk presents apparent spatial characteristics, escalating from the east to the west. Drought dangerousness is the most important factor influencing comprehensive agricultural drought risk. Through the spatial distribution maps of drought risk, decision makers could find out drought situation and make decisions on drought resistance conveniently.展开更多
A global atmospheric general circulation model (L9R15 AGCMs) forced by COADS SST was integrated from 1945 to 1993. Interannual and interdecadal variability of the simulated surface wind over the tropical Pacific was a...A global atmospheric general circulation model (L9R15 AGCMs) forced by COADS SST was integrated from 1945 to 1993. Interannual and interdecadal variability of the simulated surface wind over the tropical Pacific was analyzed and shown to agree vey well with observation. Simulation of surface wind over the central-western equatorial Pacific was more successful than that over the eastern Pacific. Zonal propagating feature of interannual variability of the tropical Pacific wind anomalies and its decadal difference were also simulated successfully. The close agreement between simulation and observation on the existence of obvious interdecadal variability of tropical Pacific surface wind attested to the high simulation capability of AGCM.展开更多
This research develops a new mathematical modeling method by combining industrial big data and process mechanism analysis under the framework of generalized additive models(GAM)to generate a practical model with gener...This research develops a new mathematical modeling method by combining industrial big data and process mechanism analysis under the framework of generalized additive models(GAM)to generate a practical model with generalization and precision.Specifically,the proposed modeling method includes the following steps.Firstly,the influence factors are screened using mechanism knowledge and data-mining methods.Secondly,the unary GAM without interactions including cleaning the data,building the sub-models,and verifying the sub-models.Subsequently,the interactions between the various factors are explored,and the binary GAM with interactions is constructed.The relationships among the sub-models are analyzed,and the integrated model is built.Finally,based on the proposed modeling method,two prediction models of mechanical property and deformation resistance for hot-rolled strips are established.Industrial actual data verification demonstrates that the new models have good prediction precision,and the mean absolute percentage errors of tensile strength,yield strength and deformation resistance are 2.54%,3.34%and 6.53%,respectively.And experimental results suggest that the proposed method offers a new approach to industrial process modeling.展开更多
A kind of hybrid reliability model is presented to solve the fatigue reliability problems of steel bridges. The cumulative damage model is one kind of the models used in fatigue reliability analysis. The parameter cha...A kind of hybrid reliability model is presented to solve the fatigue reliability problems of steel bridges. The cumulative damage model is one kind of the models used in fatigue reliability analysis. The parameter characteristics of the model can be described as probabilistic and interval. The two-stage hybrid reliability model is given with a theoretical foundation and a solving algorithm to solve the hybrid reliability problems. The theoretical foundation is established by the consistency relationships of interval reliability model and probability reliability model with normally distributed variables in theory. The solving process is combined with the definition of interval reliability index and the probabilistic algorithm. With the consideration of the parameter characteristics of the S-N curve, the cumulative damage model with hybrid variables is given based on the standards from different countries. Lastly, a case of steel structure in the Neville Island Bridge is analyzed to verify the applicability of the hybrid reliability model in fatigue reliability analysis based on the AASHTO.展开更多
With the rapid development of the marine economy industry, human exploitation of marine resources is increasing, which is contributing to the growing trend of eutrophication and frequent occurrence of red tide. Accord...With the rapid development of the marine economy industry, human exploitation of marine resources is increasing, which is contributing to the growing trend of eutrophication and frequent occurrence of red tide. Accordingly, investigations of seawater quality have attracted a great deal of attention. This study was conducted to construct a seawater environmental quality assessment model based on the variable fuzzy recognition model. The uncertainty and ambiguity of the seawater quality assessment were then considered, combining the monitoring values of evaluation indicators with the standard values of seawater quality. Laizhou Bay was subsequently selected for a case study. In this study, the correct variable model for different parameters was obtained according to the linear and nonlinear features of evaluation objects. Application of the variable fuzzy recognition model for Laizhou Bay, water quality evaluation and comparison with performance obtained using other approaches revealed that the generated model is more reliable than traditional methods, can more reasonably determine the water quality of various samples, and is more suitable for evaluation of a multi-index, multi-level, nonlinear marine environment system; accordingly, the generated model will be an effective tool for seawater quality evaluation.展开更多
An elastoplastic constitutive model for overconsolidated clays is established in the framework of the critical state theory and bounding surface plasticity theory. The bounding surface is defined as the maximum yield ...An elastoplastic constitutive model for overconsolidated clays is established in the framework of the critical state theory and bounding surface plasticity theory. The bounding surface is defined as the maximum yield surface in the loading history. A yielding ratio, i.e., an internal variant, is defined as the size ratio of the current yield surface to the corresponding bounding surface. The yielding ratio instead of the overconsolidation ratio(OCR) is used to evaluate the strength and stress-strain behaviors of overconsolidated clays in the shearing process. The bounding stress ratio incorporating the effect of the yielding ratio is used to characterize the potential failure strength of the overconsolidated clays. The dilation stress ratio taking into account the effect of the yielding ratio is applied to describe the dilatancy behaviors of the overconsolidated clays. Comparisons between model predictions and test data show that the proposed model could well capture the strength and stress-strain behaviors of normally consolidated and overconsolidated clays.展开更多
A new distribution for the fluctuation of materials' lifetime cumulative hazard rate is firstly proposed. The new distribution is extended from the Weibull distribution by adding a sine function. After that, the prop...A new distribution for the fluctuation of materials' lifetime cumulative hazard rate is firstly proposed. The new distribution is extended from the Weibull distribution by adding a sine function. After that, the properties of its hazard rate function, cumulative hazard rate function, probability density function and cumulative distribution function are studied. The analysis result shows this distribution can well model the lifetime with variable and periodic hazard rate. Finally, the new distribution is verified with two real data sets as examples to demonstrate its capability.展开更多
A generalization of the geometric measure of quantum discord is introduced in this article, based on Hellinger distance. Our definition has virtues of computability and independence of local measurement. In addition i...A generalization of the geometric measure of quantum discord is introduced in this article, based on Hellinger distance. Our definition has virtues of computability and independence of local measurement. In addition it also does not suffer from the recently raised critiques about quantum discord. The exact result can be obtained for bipartite pure states with arbitrary levels, which is completely determined by the Schmidt decomposition. For bipartite mixed states the exact result can also be found for a special case. Furthermore the generalization into multipartite case is direct. It is shown that it can be evaluated exactly when the measured state is invariant under permutation or translation. In addition the detection of quantum phase transition is also discussed for Lipkin–Meshkov–Glick and Dicke model.展开更多
Bodies of plants are modularly organized. Development proceeds by adding new modules to open endings with a potential for branching. Each module is autonomous to some extent. Development relies on the self-organized p...Bodies of plants are modularly organized. Development proceeds by adding new modules to open endings with a potential for branching. Each module is autonomous to some extent. Development relies on the self-organized patterns that emerge from the interactions of individual modules. Interactions include both competition and cooperation,and several types of positive and negative feedback loops are involved. Development can be open to external influences, thus enabling the plant to adjust its form to the environment,for example, to the spatial distribution of ecological resources. This paper provides a review on adaptive plasticity in plants.展开更多
We analyse further the reliability behaviour of series and parallel systems in the successive damage model initiated by Downton. The results are compared with those obtained for other models with different bivariate d...We analyse further the reliability behaviour of series and parallel systems in the successive damage model initiated by Downton. The results are compared with those obtained for other models with different bivariate distributions.展开更多
基金Project (No. 2004CB217901) supported by the National Basic Re-search Program (973) of China
文摘Operational reliability evaluation theory reflects real-time reliability level of power system. The component failure rate varies with operating conditions. The impact of real-time operating conditions such as ambient temperature and transformer MVA (megavolt-ampere) loading on transformer insulation life is studied in this paper. The formula of transformer failure rate based on the winding hottest-spot temperature (HST) is given. Thus the real-time reliability model of transformer based on oper- ating conditions is presented. The work is illustrated using the 1979 IEEE Reliability Test System. The changes of operating conditions are simulated by using hourly load curve and temperature curve, so the curves of real-time reliability indices are ob- tained by using operational reliability evaluation.
基金Under the auspices of Key Program of National Key Technology R & D Program of China (No. 2007BAB28B01)
文摘Drought is one of the major natural disasters causing huge agricultural losses annually. Regional agricultural drought risk assessment has great significance for reducing regional disaster and agricultural drought losses. Based on the fuzzy characteristics of agricultural drought risk, variable fuzzy sets model was used for comprehensively assessing agricultural drought risk of Liaoning Province in China. A multi-layers and multi-indices assessment model was estab-lished according to variable fuzzy sets theory, and agricultural drought risk of all 14 prefecture-level cities was respec-tively estimated in terms of dangerousness, vulnerability, exposure and drought-resistibility. By calculating the combi-nation weights of four drought risk factors, agricultural drought risk grade of each city was obtained. Based on the as-sessment results, the spatial distribution maps of agricultural drought risk were drawn. The results shows that eastern cities have lower drought dangerousness than western cities in Liaoning Province totally. Most cities are located in low drought vulnerability region and high drought exposure region. Because of frequent and severe drought since 2000, most cities are located in lower drought-resistibility region. Comprehensive agricultural drought risk presents apparent spatial characteristics, escalating from the east to the west. Drought dangerousness is the most important factor influencing comprehensive agricultural drought risk. Through the spatial distribution maps of drought risk, decision makers could find out drought situation and make decisions on drought resistance conveniently.
文摘A global atmospheric general circulation model (L9R15 AGCMs) forced by COADS SST was integrated from 1945 to 1993. Interannual and interdecadal variability of the simulated surface wind over the tropical Pacific was analyzed and shown to agree vey well with observation. Simulation of surface wind over the central-western equatorial Pacific was more successful than that over the eastern Pacific. Zonal propagating feature of interannual variability of the tropical Pacific wind anomalies and its decadal difference were also simulated successfully. The close agreement between simulation and observation on the existence of obvious interdecadal variability of tropical Pacific surface wind attested to the high simulation capability of AGCM.
基金Project(51774219)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘This research develops a new mathematical modeling method by combining industrial big data and process mechanism analysis under the framework of generalized additive models(GAM)to generate a practical model with generalization and precision.Specifically,the proposed modeling method includes the following steps.Firstly,the influence factors are screened using mechanism knowledge and data-mining methods.Secondly,the unary GAM without interactions including cleaning the data,building the sub-models,and verifying the sub-models.Subsequently,the interactions between the various factors are explored,and the binary GAM with interactions is constructed.The relationships among the sub-models are analyzed,and the integrated model is built.Finally,based on the proposed modeling method,two prediction models of mechanical property and deformation resistance for hot-rolled strips are established.Industrial actual data verification demonstrates that the new models have good prediction precision,and the mean absolute percentage errors of tensile strength,yield strength and deformation resistance are 2.54%,3.34%and 6.53%,respectively.And experimental results suggest that the proposed method offers a new approach to industrial process modeling.
基金Projects(51178042,51578047)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(C14JB00340)supported by the Innovative Research Fund in Beijing Jiaotong University,ChinaProject(2014-ZJKJ-03)supported by Science and Technology Research and Development Fund of the China Communications Construction Co.,LTD
文摘A kind of hybrid reliability model is presented to solve the fatigue reliability problems of steel bridges. The cumulative damage model is one kind of the models used in fatigue reliability analysis. The parameter characteristics of the model can be described as probabilistic and interval. The two-stage hybrid reliability model is given with a theoretical foundation and a solving algorithm to solve the hybrid reliability problems. The theoretical foundation is established by the consistency relationships of interval reliability model and probability reliability model with normally distributed variables in theory. The solving process is combined with the definition of interval reliability index and the probabilistic algorithm. With the consideration of the parameter characteristics of the S-N curve, the cumulative damage model with hybrid variables is given based on the standards from different countries. Lastly, a case of steel structure in the Neville Island Bridge is analyzed to verify the applicability of the hybrid reliability model in fatigue reliability analysis based on the AASHTO.
基金Supported by the 908 Special Fund of the State Oceanic Administration:the Offshore Marine Environment Quality Evaluation of Liaoning Province(No.LN-908-02-04)the Humanities and Social Science Research Project of Ministry of Education
文摘With the rapid development of the marine economy industry, human exploitation of marine resources is increasing, which is contributing to the growing trend of eutrophication and frequent occurrence of red tide. Accordingly, investigations of seawater quality have attracted a great deal of attention. This study was conducted to construct a seawater environmental quality assessment model based on the variable fuzzy recognition model. The uncertainty and ambiguity of the seawater quality assessment were then considered, combining the monitoring values of evaluation indicators with the standard values of seawater quality. Laizhou Bay was subsequently selected for a case study. In this study, the correct variable model for different parameters was obtained according to the linear and nonlinear features of evaluation objects. Application of the variable fuzzy recognition model for Laizhou Bay, water quality evaluation and comparison with performance obtained using other approaches revealed that the generated model is more reliable than traditional methods, can more reasonably determine the water quality of various samples, and is more suitable for evaluation of a multi-index, multi-level, nonlinear marine environment system; accordingly, the generated model will be an effective tool for seawater quality evaluation.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51509024)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Grant No.106112015CDJXY200008)the Project funded by China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant No.2016M590864)
文摘An elastoplastic constitutive model for overconsolidated clays is established in the framework of the critical state theory and bounding surface plasticity theory. The bounding surface is defined as the maximum yield surface in the loading history. A yielding ratio, i.e., an internal variant, is defined as the size ratio of the current yield surface to the corresponding bounding surface. The yielding ratio instead of the overconsolidation ratio(OCR) is used to evaluate the strength and stress-strain behaviors of overconsolidated clays in the shearing process. The bounding stress ratio incorporating the effect of the yielding ratio is used to characterize the potential failure strength of the overconsolidated clays. The dilation stress ratio taking into account the effect of the yielding ratio is applied to describe the dilatancy behaviors of the overconsolidated clays. Comparisons between model predictions and test data show that the proposed model could well capture the strength and stress-strain behaviors of normally consolidated and overconsolidated clays.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.11461051and 11361036the Natural Science Foundation of Inner Mongolia under Grant No.2014MS0112
文摘A new distribution for the fluctuation of materials' lifetime cumulative hazard rate is firstly proposed. The new distribution is extended from the Weibull distribution by adding a sine function. After that, the properties of its hazard rate function, cumulative hazard rate function, probability density function and cumulative distribution function are studied. The analysis result shows this distribution can well model the lifetime with variable and periodic hazard rate. Finally, the new distribution is verified with two real data sets as examples to demonstrate its capability.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.11005002 and 11475004 New Century Excellent Talent of M.O.E(NCET-11-0937) Sponsoring Program of Excellent Younger Teachers in universities in Henan Province under Grant No.2010GGJS-181
文摘A generalization of the geometric measure of quantum discord is introduced in this article, based on Hellinger distance. Our definition has virtues of computability and independence of local measurement. In addition it also does not suffer from the recently raised critiques about quantum discord. The exact result can be obtained for bipartite pure states with arbitrary levels, which is completely determined by the Schmidt decomposition. For bipartite mixed states the exact result can also be found for a special case. Furthermore the generalization into multipartite case is direct. It is shown that it can be evaluated exactly when the measured state is invariant under permutation or translation. In addition the detection of quantum phase transition is also discussed for Lipkin–Meshkov–Glick and Dicke model.
基金This research was subsidized by the Hungarian National Research Fund(OTKA T35009,and NWOOTKA N34028),the Hungarian Ministry of Education(FKFP 0187/1990,Istvn Szchenyi Scolarship),and the International Program of the Santa Fe Institute,NM,USA.
文摘Bodies of plants are modularly organized. Development proceeds by adding new modules to open endings with a potential for branching. Each module is autonomous to some extent. Development relies on the self-organized patterns that emerge from the interactions of individual modules. Interactions include both competition and cooperation,and several types of positive and negative feedback loops are involved. Development can be open to external influences, thus enabling the plant to adjust its form to the environment,for example, to the spatial distribution of ecological resources. This paper provides a review on adaptive plasticity in plants.
文摘We analyse further the reliability behaviour of series and parallel systems in the successive damage model initiated by Downton. The results are compared with those obtained for other models with different bivariate distributions.