Europe＇s mountains cover nearly half of the continent＇s area and are home to one fifth of the European population. Mountain areas are hotspots of biodiversity and agriculture has played a multifunctional role in def...Europe＇s mountains cover nearly half of the continent＇s area and are home to one fifth of the European population. Mountain areas are hotspots of biodiversity and agriculture has played a multifunctional role in defining and sustaining mountain biodiversity. Ongoing trends of agricultural decline are having negative impacts on mountain biodiversity. This paper presents results from an interdisciplinary European research project, BioScene, which investigated the relationship between agriculture and biodiversity in six mountain study areas across Europe to provide recommendations for reconciling biodiversity conservation with social and economic activities through an integrated rural development strategy. BioScene used scenario analysis and stakeholder participation as tools for structuring the analysis of alternative mountain futures. Three main BioScene scenarios were evaluated： Business as Usual （BAIT）, Agricultural Liberalisation （Lib）, Managed Change for Biodiversity （MCB）. BioScene brought together ecologists, economists, sociologists and rural geogra- phers, to carry out interdisciplinary analysis of the scenarios： identifying key drivers of change, assessing the biodiversity consequences and evaluating costeffectiveness. BioScene used a sustainability assessment to integrate the research outputs across natural and social science disciplines to assess the broader sustainability of the scenarios in terms of biodiversity, natural resources, rural development, social development, economic development and institutional capacity. The sustainability assessment showed that the MCB scenario was potentially the most sustainable of the three BioScene scenarios. Through the reconciliation of potentially conflicting objectives, such as conservation, economic development and human livelihoods, and with a strong participatory planning approach, the MCB scenario could represent an alternative approach to BaU for sustainable rural development in Europe＇s mountains. BioScene confirms the necessity for natural and social scientists to work together to seek solutions to environmental problems. Interdisciplinary research can assist with the definition of integrated strategies with the potential to reconcile the ecological, social and economic parameters that determine a sustainable future for European mountain areas.展开更多
We review recent research activities on structural reliability analysis,reliability-based design optimization(RBDO) and applications in complex engineering structural design.Several novel uncertainty propagation metho...We review recent research activities on structural reliability analysis,reliability-based design optimization(RBDO) and applications in complex engineering structural design.Several novel uncertainty propagation methods and reliability models,which are the basis of the reliability assessment,are given.In addition,recent developments on reliability evaluation and sensitivity analysis are highlighted as well as implementation strategies for RBDO.展开更多
文摘Europe＇s mountains cover nearly half of the continent＇s area and are home to one fifth of the European population. Mountain areas are hotspots of biodiversity and agriculture has played a multifunctional role in defining and sustaining mountain biodiversity. Ongoing trends of agricultural decline are having negative impacts on mountain biodiversity. This paper presents results from an interdisciplinary European research project, BioScene, which investigated the relationship between agriculture and biodiversity in six mountain study areas across Europe to provide recommendations for reconciling biodiversity conservation with social and economic activities through an integrated rural development strategy. BioScene used scenario analysis and stakeholder participation as tools for structuring the analysis of alternative mountain futures. Three main BioScene scenarios were evaluated： Business as Usual （BAIT）, Agricultural Liberalisation （Lib）, Managed Change for Biodiversity （MCB）. BioScene brought together ecologists, economists, sociologists and rural geogra- phers, to carry out interdisciplinary analysis of the scenarios： identifying key drivers of change, assessing the biodiversity consequences and evaluating costeffectiveness. BioScene used a sustainability assessment to integrate the research outputs across natural and social science disciplines to assess the broader sustainability of the scenarios in terms of biodiversity, natural resources, rural development, social development, economic development and institutional capacity. The sustainability assessment showed that the MCB scenario was potentially the most sustainable of the three BioScene scenarios. Through the reconciliation of potentially conflicting objectives, such as conservation, economic development and human livelihoods, and with a strong participatory planning approach, the MCB scenario could represent an alternative approach to BaU for sustainable rural development in Europe＇s mountains. BioScene confirms the necessity for natural and social scientists to work together to seek solutions to environmental problems. Interdisciplinary research can assist with the definition of integrated strategies with the potential to reconcile the ecological, social and economic parameters that determine a sustainable future for European mountain areas.
基金supported by the Defense Industrial Technology Development Program (Grant Nos.A2120110001 and B2120110011)111 Project (Grant No.B07009)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.11002013,90816024 and 10876100)
文摘We review recent research activities on structural reliability analysis,reliability-based design optimization(RBDO) and applications in complex engineering structural design.Several novel uncertainty propagation methods and reliability models,which are the basis of the reliability assessment,are given.In addition,recent developments on reliability evaluation and sensitivity analysis are highlighted as well as implementation strategies for RBDO.
