新质生产力下“能源绿色转型”革命及意义——兼论“能源三角”理论认识

基于全球气候变化、碳中和目标与能源转型需求、现状及发展趋势,总结了世界能源绿色转型进程与中国新能源革命取得的成就及意义,提出了“能源三角”理论。研究表明:能源技术革命引领全球能源正历经北美黑色“页岩油气革命”和中国绿色“新能源革命”。中国风光氢储绿色新能源革命取得历史性成就,光伏风电技术水平全球领先,建成全球最大、最完整和最具竞争力的新能源创新链、产业链、价值链,建成了世界上最大的清洁电力供应体系。新质生产力代表绿色生产力,中国绿色新能源革命,加速了中国能源结构转型和全球清洁能源转型的步伐,构建了世界绿色低碳转型共赢新模式。新质生产力下的“能源三角”理论诠释了碳中和目标驱动能源绿色转型背景下,能源安全性、经济性、绿色性三要素在由化石能源到新型能源体系再到能源革命演变过程中的关联与发展。与世界能源资源禀赋比,中国能源资源特征是“煤炭较多、油气较少、风光无限”,未来中国能源发展思路要坚持科技驱动、洁煤降碳、稳油增气、强新增绿、智能互融。大力发展新能源是解决中国能源安全的必然趋势,建设碳中和“超级能源系统”是必然选择,要持续提升中国新能源发展的国际领先优势,发展能源新质生产力,支撑中国建设“能源强国”,奋力“能源独立”。

Scenario Prediction and Analysis of Urban Growth Using SLEUTH Model

Scenario prediction was introduced to better understand urban dynamics and to support urban planning. Taking the Dongguan central urban area of the Pearl River Delta, China as an example, three urban development scenarios, historical trend (HT) scenario, forest protection (FP) scenario, and growth restriction (GR) scenario, were designed and transplanted into the SLEUTH model through the parameter self-modification method. The quantitative analysis results showed that the urban area would expand continuously from 2003 to 2030 under the HT scenario. More land resources would be saved under the GR scenario than FP scenario. Furthermore, the urban growth under the HT and FP scenarios would come to a steady state by 2020, while this deadline of the GR scenario would be postponed to 2025. The spatial pattern analysis using five spatial metrics, class area, number of patches, largest patch index, edge density, and contagion index, showed that under all the scenarios, the urban patches would become bigger and the form would become more compact, and the urban form under the GR scenario would be the smallest and most heterogeneous. These demonstrated that the GR scenario was more effective in meeting the goal of land protection and sustainable development for the study area.

Discussion on Forestry Sustainable Development in the Yellow River Delta Region

The Yellow River Delta (YRD) is one of the biggest deltas that have not been developed in the world. During the turn of the centuries, YRD development is listed in the two major projects in the new century by Shandong provincial government. According to the plan, YRD will become an important energy, chemical and agricultural production base in 15-20 years. In view of its location and natural conditions, so far there exist a lot of environmental problems in YRD. Thus the principle of economic development coordinating with environmental protection must be implemented during YRD development. Forestation is one of the vital measures to cope with environment degradation. Therefore, strategies of forestry development and techniques of tree planting in different land use types are discussed in the paper based on site classification with specific problems involved .

Effect of Farming Practices on the Variability of Phosphorus Status in Intensively Managed Soils

Phosphorus(P) in agricultural soils is an important factor for soil quality and environmental protection. Understanding of P and its fractions in soils on a regional scale is imperative for effective management or utilization of P and the improvement of P availability in soils. To study spatial variability and changes of soil P and its fractions as affected by farming practices, soil samples were taken in Rugao County, Jiangsu Province of China, an intensive agricultural area in the Yangtze River Delta region, in years of 1982(n = 1 514), 1997(n = 1 651), and 2002(n = 342). High spatial variabilities of Olsen P and total P(TP) were observed throughout the study area. Loamy Stagnic Anthrosols and clay or loamy Aquic Cambosols had significantly higher concentrations of Olsen P and TP than sandy Ustic Cambosols and Aquic Cambosols. Olsen P and TP were increased from 1982 to 2002. The accumulations of Olsen P and TP in the cultivated soils were likely related to the increased application of P fertilizer, organic input,and soil incorporation of crop residues as well as conversion of soil use. Accumulated soil P was dominantly in labile and semi-labile P fractions. These P fractions may be utilized by future crop production by adjusting management practices, but they also pose a serious threat to nearby water bodies. Future strategies should include decreasing P fertilization in soils and supporting sustainable management. The information from this study can be used to monitor changes in soil fertility and environmental risks so that the use of fertilizers can become more rational.