Lake Vrana on the island of Cres is one of the largest fresh water features on Mediterranean islands. The maximum depth of the lake is 72 m and it stores 220 million m3 of fresh water. The paper provides an overview o...Lake Vrana on the island of Cres is one of the largest fresh water features on Mediterranean islands. The maximum depth of the lake is 72 m and it stores 220 million m3 of fresh water. The paper provides an overview of lake and groundwater temperature measurements to date and recent activities within the EU project ＂CC-WaterS （Climate Change and Impacts on Water Supply）＂. Groundwater temperatures in the lake surrounding are almost constant throughout the year, in the range from 14.6 ℃ to 13.1 ℃, while thermodynamic cycle of the lake conforms to the characteristics of a monomictic, medium depth lake in the moderate climate belt. Present and future climate simulations using three limited area models were analyzed （Aladin, Promes and RegCM3）, they pointed out further air temperature increase in range of 0.27 ℃/10 yrs to 0.32 ℃/10 yrs. The significant changes of precipitation rates were not indicated. Considering increasing water consumption from the lake, already asserted negative trends, indicated climate changes and possible effects on the lake recharge, it is necessary to establish continual monitoring of parameters that describe lake system behaviour and periodically analyze lake conditions, especially with respect to the extraction for the public water supply.展开更多
As a result of recent accidents, society is becoming more conscious and concerned about the risk that are under to the environment and communities. A proposal of assessment of the vulnerability of the environment and ...As a result of recent accidents, society is becoming more conscious and concerned about the risk that are under to the environment and communities. A proposal of assessment of the vulnerability of the environment and community is presented here under a holistic perspective using fuzzy logic as a formal tool. An internal factor of the risk of a system under a given threat is assessed. Risk is considered as the union between the threat and the vulnerability of the environment and community. This approach shows that the reduction in either or both of them makes a reduction in the risk content as well. The main purpose of this proposal is not to obtain a single value as output; in fact the result is a map which can contribute to the different areas of the community in decision making.展开更多
A relative humidity series of April-August during 1825-2009 AD was reconstructed based on tree- ring width of Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica for the Hulunbuir area. During the past 185 years, 25 humid years and 26 ar...A relative humidity series of April-August during 1825-2009 AD was reconstructed based on tree- ring width of Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica for the Hulunbuir area. During the past 185 years, 25 humid years and 26 arid years were identified in the reconstruction, as well as 6 wet periods and 6 dry periods. The relative humidity has decreased since approximately the 1950s, suggesting a warm and dry climate trend in the study area. The reconstruction can be compared with those of the surrounding tree ring reconstructed precipitation and rela- tive humidity series at the decadal scale, reflecting the consistency of the regional climate variations. Besides, significant positive correlations are revealed between the reconstruction and the normalized difference vegetation index of the Hulunbuir grassland. And the decrease in relative humidity will cause negative impacts on the Hulunbuir grassland. Comparisons between the sandstorm records and the relative humidity of the study area indicate that strong sandstorms occurred more frequently in Hulunbuir when the relative humidity was low. Therefore, under the downward trend in relative humidity, more effort should be made to protect the grassland ecology and treat the bare sand land for the local and surrounding areas.展开更多
This paper proposes to use the blockwise empirical likelihood （EL） method to construct the confidence regions for the regression vector β in a partially linear model under negatively associated errors. It is shown ...This paper proposes to use the blockwise empirical likelihood （EL） method to construct the confidence regions for the regression vector β in a partially linear model under negatively associated errors. It is shown that the blockwise EL ratio statistic for β is asymptotically χ^2 distributed. The result is used to obtain an EL-based confidence region for β. Results of a simulation study on the finite sample performance of the proposed confidence regions are reported.展开更多
文摘Lake Vrana on the island of Cres is one of the largest fresh water features on Mediterranean islands. The maximum depth of the lake is 72 m and it stores 220 million m3 of fresh water. The paper provides an overview of lake and groundwater temperature measurements to date and recent activities within the EU project ＂CC-WaterS （Climate Change and Impacts on Water Supply）＂. Groundwater temperatures in the lake surrounding are almost constant throughout the year, in the range from 14.6 ℃ to 13.1 ℃, while thermodynamic cycle of the lake conforms to the characteristics of a monomictic, medium depth lake in the moderate climate belt. Present and future climate simulations using three limited area models were analyzed （Aladin, Promes and RegCM3）, they pointed out further air temperature increase in range of 0.27 ℃/10 yrs to 0.32 ℃/10 yrs. The significant changes of precipitation rates were not indicated. Considering increasing water consumption from the lake, already asserted negative trends, indicated climate changes and possible effects on the lake recharge, it is necessary to establish continual monitoring of parameters that describe lake system behaviour and periodically analyze lake conditions, especially with respect to the extraction for the public water supply.
文摘As a result of recent accidents, society is becoming more conscious and concerned about the risk that are under to the environment and communities. A proposal of assessment of the vulnerability of the environment and community is presented here under a holistic perspective using fuzzy logic as a formal tool. An internal factor of the risk of a system under a given threat is assessed. Risk is considered as the union between the threat and the vulnerability of the environment and community. This approach shows that the reduction in either or both of them makes a reduction in the risk content as well. The main purpose of this proposal is not to obtain a single value as output; in fact the result is a map which can contribute to the different areas of the community in decision making.
基金supported by the State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology(SKLLQG1316)the Scientific Research Plan Projects of Shaanxi Education Department(15JK1796)+1 种基金the Dominant Discipline Construction Projects of Shaanxi(Historical Geography 0602 SZXKY1302)the Specialized Research Fund Project of Xianyang Normal University(12XSYK0310)
文摘A relative humidity series of April-August during 1825-2009 AD was reconstructed based on tree- ring width of Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica for the Hulunbuir area. During the past 185 years, 25 humid years and 26 arid years were identified in the reconstruction, as well as 6 wet periods and 6 dry periods. The relative humidity has decreased since approximately the 1950s, suggesting a warm and dry climate trend in the study area. The reconstruction can be compared with those of the surrounding tree ring reconstructed precipitation and rela- tive humidity series at the decadal scale, reflecting the consistency of the regional climate variations. Besides, significant positive correlations are revealed between the reconstruction and the normalized difference vegetation index of the Hulunbuir grassland. And the decrease in relative humidity will cause negative impacts on the Hulunbuir grassland. Comparisons between the sandstorm records and the relative humidity of the study area indicate that strong sandstorms occurred more frequently in Hulunbuir when the relative humidity was low. Therefore, under the downward trend in relative humidity, more effort should be made to protect the grassland ecology and treat the bare sand land for the local and surrounding areas.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.11271088and 11361011the Natural Science Foundation of Guangxi under Grant Nos.2013GXNSFAA019004 and2013GXNSFAA019007
文摘This paper proposes to use the blockwise empirical likelihood （EL） method to construct the confidence regions for the regression vector β in a partially linear model under negatively associated errors. It is shown that the blockwise EL ratio statistic for β is asymptotically χ^2 distributed. The result is used to obtain an EL-based confidence region for β. Results of a simulation study on the finite sample performance of the proposed confidence regions are reported.
