2000年我国耕地资源的可能变化及其对策

在我国,耕地是绝大部分的粮食、豆类、蔬菜和瓜类,95％的肉类,相当部分的轻工业原料和农村燃料、饲料及肥料的来源,也是目前我国土地资源中能量转化效率和负荷最高的利用类型。尽管丘陵山地和高原的面积占了我国土地总面积的70％。

基于设计实践的参数化与BIM

参数化与BIM这两个词越来越多地被建筑师们挂在嘴上,在中国从鲜有人知到谁都能说点,也就是过去三、五年的事情。时至今日,参数化已经成为复杂形体的代词,对于BIM的理解也是众说纷纭,有人甚至把参数化和BIM等"时髦"的词语罗列在一起,暴露了对于这些数字化技术应用背后本质和动机的错位。要想真正领悟什么是参数化,什么是BIM,以及二者之间的关系,就需要把参数化和BIM放到设计实践的语境下讨论。本文以广义的设计实践为媒介,先分别探讨如何全面理解参数化,BIM和设计?然后在此基础上,利用设计四方维度的哲学框架,详细阐述BIM与设计的关系、参数化与设计的关系、参数化和设计的关系,最后展望BIM与参数化的未来。本文结尾,提出无论是参数化还是BIIM,他们都是过程和途径,不是目的,只有正确理解它们和建筑设计之间的关系,才能在提升设计团队工作效率和质量的同时,不限制设计师个体源于经验和直觉的创造性。

story(故事)的故事

同学们知道,story这个词是"故事"的 意思,但你知道story本身也有许多故事 吗?下面给你们讲几个有关story的故事,通 过这些故事,同学们在英语学习中一定会 受到启发。 [故事一]I know his story. 这句话若译为"我知道他的故事"显然 不妥当,其真正意思是"我了解他的经 历",这里的story是指"个人历史"。

Addressing the trade-climate change-energy nexus: China's explorations in a global governance landscape

We have arrived at a critical juncture when it comes to understanding the numerous ways in which trade interacts with climate change and energy(trade-climate-energy nexus).Trade remains crucial for the sustainable development of the world's greatest trading nation:China.After clarifying the linkages within the trade,climate change and energy nexus,this article delves into China's specific needs and interests related to trade,climate change and energy.Then it explores the ways in which trade can contribute to China's needs,to sustainable energy development and to the goals of the global climate agreement that is under negotiation.One main findings are China is a key participant in negotiations on trade liberalization of environmental technologies and services.These negotiations are in China's interests in terms of innovative industries,technological upgrading,employment and public health.China could stand up for the interests of other emerging and developing countries and serve as an example in terms of transitioning to a low-carbon economy.Beyond trade barriers issues of domestic(energy)regulation such as fossil-fuel subsidies as well as investment,competition-policy,tradefacilitation and transit issues related to clean energy need to be addressed.Building trust between relevant actors across sectors and national borders will be of the essence in order to foster long-term cooperation on technological innovation.As a way forward,different approaches towards the governance of trade and climate change will be highlighted.Besides discussing the specific aspects of Chinese participation in global trade and climate change governance,this paper aims at offering broader insights into the nexus between trade,energy and climate governance in China.

Decadal variability of chlorophyll α in the South China Sea: a possible mechanism

Four climatologies on a monthly scale (January, April, May and November) of chlorophyll a within the South China Sea (SCS) were calculated using a Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) (1979-1983) and the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) (1998-2002). We analyzed decadal variability of chlorophyll a by comparing the products of the two observation periods. The relationships of variability in chlorophyll a with sea surface wind speed (SSW), sea surface temperature (SST), wind stress (WS), and mixed layer depth (MLD) were determined. The results indicate that there is obvious chlorophyll a decadal variability in the SCS. The decadal chlorophyll a presents distinct seasonal variability in characteristics, which may be as a result of various different dynamic processes. The negative chlorophyll a concentration anomaly in January was associated with the warming of SST and a shallower MLD. Generally, there were higher chlorophyll a concentrations in spring during the SeaWiFS period compared with the CZCS period. However, the chlorophyll a concentration exhibits some regional differences during this season, leading to an explanation being difficult. The deepened MLD may have contributed to the positive chlorophyll a concentration anomalies from the northwestern Luzon Island to the northeastern region of Vietnam during April and May. The increases of chlorophyll a concentration in northwestern Borneo during May may be because the stronger SSW and higher WS produce a deeper mixed layer and convective mixing, leading to high levels of nutrient concentrations. The higher chlorophyll a off southeastern Vietnam may be associated with the advective transport of the colder water extending from the Karimata Strait to southeastern Vietnam.

Application of Rough Set Theory in Fault Diagnostic Rules Acquisition

Rough set theory is a new mathematical tool to deal with vagneness and uncertainty. But original rough sets theory only generates deterministic rules and deals with data sets in which there is no noise. The variable precision rough set model （VPRSM） is presented to handle uncertain and noisy information. A method based on VPRSM is proposed to apply to fault diagnosis feature extraction and rules acquisition for industrial applications. An example for fault diagnosis of rotary machinery is given to show that the method is very effective.

Spatiotemporal features and possible mechanisms of seasonal changes in sea surface height south of Japan

Variations of sea surface height （SSH） in the Kuroshio south of Japan are addressed by analyzing 19-year （1993-2011） altimetry data from AVISO. Regionally averaged time series of observed SSH had a rising linear trend at 2.64＋0.72 mrn/a in this period. By analyzing the power spectra, several periods were recognized in temporal SSH variations, including those around 90 and 360 days. The seasonal cycle of SSH was minimum in winter （February） and maximum in summer （August）, with peak-to-peak amplitude about 20.0 cm. The spatial distribution of linear trends was inhomogeneous, with a rising linear trend along the coastline and a tripole structure offshore. Spatial distributions of standard deviation of seasonal SSH show very dynamic activities in the southeast of Kyushu and south of Honshu. Seasonal variations of observed SSH are partially explained by surface buoyancy forcing, local wind forcing and the steric component related to subsurface water beneath the mixed layer. Results show different spatial distributions of correlation coefficient and estimation skill between seasonally observed and modeled SSH, which are calculated from surface buoyancy flux, local wind forcing and the steric component related to subsurface water. Of those three, the surface buoyancy flux has a greater contribution to variations of observed SSH on the seasonal time scale south of Japan.

Actively Dealing with Climate Change and Striving to Strengthen the Capability of Sustainable Development

Either from the perspective of the finite supply capacity of global resources and energy,or from the perspective of global environment restrictive conditions,developing countries can not repeat the old development road of developed countries,either in view of the international pressure China is currently facing,or in view of China's own resources endowment and stages of development,we must actively face such a challenge of climate change.We must recognize that the issue of climate change may be a great restraint to the present and future eco-social development,and may also be an important driving force and new opportunity to push forward the transformation of development pattern,to take a new road of industrialization and to realize sustainable development.This demands us,on the one hand,to take the Scientific Outlook of Development as the guide to make efforts to control the emission of greenhouse gases and continuously increase the capability of adapting to climatic change,and set up the overall plan to respond to climate change of our country,and on the other hand,we should unswervingly take the road of sustainable development,save energy,optimize energy structure and strengthen biological protection in slowing and adapting to climate change.

The Connection of Vegetation with Tourism Development and Economic Growth： A Case Study for Aruba

Vegetation is an important ecosystem on earth. It influences the earth system in many ways. Any influences on this fragile variable should be investigated, especially in a changing climate. Humans can have a positive or a negative influence on plants. This paper investigates the possible impact of tourism development and economic growth on vegetation health using cointegration and causality for Aruba. The proposed framework contributes to a better understanding on the use of remote sensing of vegetation response to tourism development and economic growth. Thereby, provide opportunities for improving the overall strategy for achieving sustainable development on a small island state. The calculations showed that there were relationships between the tourism demand and economic growth on the vegetation health on Aruba for the western part of the island. On the other hand, for the central part of the island, no relationships were found.

Seasonal Temperature Variations of Lake Vrana on the Island of Cres and Possible Influence of Global Climate Changes

Lake Vrana on the island of Cres is one of the largest fresh water features on Mediterranean islands. The maximum depth of the lake is 72 m and it stores 220 million m3 of fresh water. The paper provides an overview of lake and groundwater temperature measurements to date and recent activities within the EU project ＂CC-WaterS （Climate Change and Impacts on Water Supply）＂. Groundwater temperatures in the lake surrounding are almost constant throughout the year, in the range from 14.6 ℃ to 13.1 ℃, while thermodynamic cycle of the lake conforms to the characteristics of a monomictic, medium depth lake in the moderate climate belt. Present and future climate simulations using three limited area models were analyzed （Aladin, Promes and RegCM3）, they pointed out further air temperature increase in range of 0.27 ℃/10 yrs to 0.32 ℃/10 yrs. The significant changes of precipitation rates were not indicated. Considering increasing water consumption from the lake, already asserted negative trends, indicated climate changes and possible effects on the lake recharge, it is necessary to establish continual monitoring of parameters that describe lake system behaviour and periodically analyze lake conditions, especially with respect to the extraction for the public water supply.

Outcomes of palliative local treatment in metastatic colorectal cancer patients receiving chemotherapy plus bevacizumab

Objective The aim of this study was to assess the value of palliative local treatment of incurable metastatic lesions in colorectal cancer(CRC) patients receiving chemotherapy plus bevacizumab.Methods Data of 105 patients with histologically confirmed synchronous or metachronous metastatic CRC who received bevacizumab treatment from January 1, 2011 to January 31, 2017 were retrospectively reviewed. Sixteen(15%) patients who were treated with bevacizumab for less than 4 cycles were excluded, and finally, 89(85%) patients were enrolled. Among them, 33(37%) patients who received palliative local treatment were categorized into the palliative local treatment group, and the remaining 56(63%) patients were categorized into the chemotherapy plus bevacizumab group. The primary endpoint was overall survival(OS), which was calculated using Kaplan-Meier survival analyses. Factors possibly influencing survival were evaluated by univariate and multivariate analyses. Adverse events(AEs) were graded according to Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events, version 4.0. Grades 1–2 and 3–4 AEs of the two groups were compared and analyzed using the Fisher's exact test and χ~2 analysis.Results The median follow-up period was 20.4 months, ranging from 1 to 60 months. The median OS in the palliative local treatment group was 36.3 months(95% CI, 33.5–39.2), and that in the chemotherapy plus bevacizumab group was 20.5 months(95% CI, 17.6–23.4). Both the univariate(HR 0.13, 95% CI, 0.05–0.30, P < 0.001) and multivariate(HR 0.16, 95% CI, 0.07–0.39, P < 0.001) analyses showed that the addition of palliative local treatment could prolong survival compared with chemotherapy plus bevacizumab alone. There were no significant differences in the rates of common chemotherapy-or bevacizumab-related AEs between the two groups.Conclusion These findings suggest palliative local treatment is an effective and safe method for treating patients with incurable metastatic CRC receiving chemotherapy plus bevacizumab.

Can we go beyond INDCs： Analysis of a future mitigation possibility in China, Japan, EU and the U.S.

The most important achievement in the Paris Agreement is to set up emission reduction target by commitment submitted by each country/ region with the form INDC. However the emission reduction target inside INDCs could not match with the emission pathway for the global to keep a global temperature rise this century well below 2 ℃ and to drive efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 ℃ above pre- industrial levels. It is important for countries to do more than their commitment in INDCs, especially in near term. This paper looks at the near term trend for possibilities for further emission reduction compared with INDCs, and found there do have the possibility. It concludes there is space for the four countries/regions to do more than their INDCs submitted to UNFCCC, and see the light towards to a global 2 ℃ target.

Carbon Dioxide Control-Technology for the Future

The world is experiencing global climate change, and most scientists attribute it to the accumulation in the atmosphere of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons. Because of its enormous emission rate, carbon dioxide （CO2） is the main culprit. Almost all the anthropogenic CO2 emissions come from the burning of fossil fuels for electricity, heat, and transportation. Emissions of COg can be reduced by conservation, increased use of renewable energy sources, and increased efficiencies in both the production of electrical power and the transportation sector. Capture of CO2 can be accomplished with wet scrubbing, dry sorption, or biogenic fixation. After CO2 is captured, it must be transported either as a liquid or a supercritical fluid, which realistically can only be accomplished by pipeline or ship. Final disposal of CO2 will either be to underground reservoirs or to the ocean; at present, the underground option seems to be the only viable one. Various strategies and technologies involved with reduction of CO2 emissions and carbon capture and sequestration （CCS） are briefly reviewed in this paper.

Frequency Variations of Power System Due to Switching of Renewable Energy Sources

Power systems in Germany mainly containing intermittently operating renewable sources require load/frequency control which is performed up to now at the AC transmissioh and distribution levels. Frequency control can be achieved by employing short-and long-term storage plants buffering and complementing renewable energy sources. A representative grid consists of a natural-gas-fired plant serving as frequency leader, long-term storage plant, wind-power farm with associated short-term storage plantfor energy buffering, and photovoltaic farm with associated short-term storage plant interconnected by a long transmission line to two load circuits. Transient analysis is performed with Mathemafica solving the differential equation system for frequency variation. Powerflow through the AC transmission line is limited by its impedance. The long transmission line must be segmented to achieve stability and voltage control over an 800 km distance. The renewable plants must be operated together with the storage plants in order tominimize frequency variations by smoothing the power output of renewable plants, achieving step-wise control of the transmission-line power. Although to date only AC Iransmission lines in Germany exist, it is anticipated that within the next 10 years these will beaugmented by DC high-voltage lines.

Developing bioenergy to tackle climate change：Bioenergy path and practice of Tianguan group

Biomass energy would become the most potential renewable energies, for whether wind power or photovoltaic, would be restricted by the nature thus cannot provide stable power, while biomass energy is the only renewable energy that can be used in the form of gas, liquid or solid stage, it could replace the fossil energy, lead a positive influence on the control of the greenhouse gases. Across the globe, the biomass produced through photosynthesis is about 200 Gt, or 99 Gtce per year. If 10% of the biomass is utilized, more than 4 Gt of fuel ethanol and other bioenergy products can be produced, equivalent to 4.13 Gt of petroleum consumed by the world in 2014. Therefore, bioenergy can be a feasible alternative to fossil energy.

Microalgae for Renewable Energy： Is it a Solution for Global Warming？

Microalgae could be a new sustainable energy source substituted for petroleum. They can produce high value biodiesel, bioethanol, bio-hydrogen, biogas, and that they are able to use waste water and nutrients, allowing for integration of such processes with waste treatment. Open ponds in hectares of area, could remove excess CO2 in atmosphere with photosynthesis. Large scale microalgal production in fields which are not suitable for agriculture could be a solution for CO： capturing from the atmosphere. Sea water could be used for the culture medium not to consume the fresh water. However microalgae reduce the atmospheric CO： while producing the organic material, using the biomass for either fuel production or food, feed, fertilizer, come out with CO2 release to the atmosphere, when burned by the engine, body and/or bacterial activities. So, microalgal growth can＇t reduce the CO2 however makes an important contribution to keep the atmospheric CO2 level stable. Long term solution for removing the CO2, could be possible with making durable biomaterials with microalgal biomass and capture the atmospheric CO2 by fixing into the materials and interrupt the carbon cycle for a long while.

Growing season relative humidity variations and possible impacts on Hulunbuir grassland

A relative humidity series of April-August during 1825-2009 AD was reconstructed based on tree- ring width of Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica for the Hulunbuir area. During the past 185 years, 25 humid years and 26 arid years were identified in the reconstruction, as well as 6 wet periods and 6 dry periods. The relative humidity has decreased since approximately the 1950s, suggesting a warm and dry climate trend in the study area. The reconstruction can be compared with those of the surrounding tree ring reconstructed precipitation and rela- tive humidity series at the decadal scale, reflecting the consistency of the regional climate variations. Besides, significant positive correlations are revealed between the reconstruction and the normalized difference vegetation index of the Hulunbuir grassland. And the decrease in relative humidity will cause negative impacts on the Hulunbuir grassland. Comparisons between the sandstorm records and the relative humidity of the study area indicate that strong sandstorms occurred more frequently in Hulunbuir when the relative humidity was low. Therefore, under the downward trend in relative humidity, more effort should be made to protect the grassland ecology and treat the bare sand land for the local and surrounding areas.

Reversible magnetocaloric effect and refrigeration capacity enhanced by two successive magnetic transitions in DyB2

A large and reversible magnetocaloric effect is found in the compound DyB2, which is associated with two successive mag- netic transitions： a spin-reorientation-like transition followed by a ferromagnetic-paramagnetic transition. These two transitions appreciably enlarge the magnetic-refrigeration temperature window and yield a huge refrigeration capacity of 610 J kg^-1, with a maximum magnetic entropy change -ASmax of 17 J kg^-1K^-1, at a magnetic-field change of 5 T. The corresponding values for low magnetic-field change of 2 T are 193 J kg^-1 and 7.4 J kg-lK^-1, respectively.