加速随机模拟化学反应系统的“最后所有可能的步进”方法

提出了一种改进的模拟化学反应系统的加速方法,称为"最后所有可能的步进"(FAPS)方法.此方法不仅可以用较少的模拟次数得到整个运行过程中任何时刻物种的统计特性,而且还可以与leap算法相结合,有效地进行大规模的化学反应系统的模拟.数值模拟的结果表明提出的方法可以广泛地应用于多种化学反应系统,并且与已有的方法相比其运行效率有显著的改进.

基于可能-满意度方法的个人信贷决策模型研究

在对商业银行个人信贷决策进行系统分析的基础上 ,运用可能 -满意度方法解决该多目标决策问题 ,初步探讨个人信贷决策的可能 -满意度模型。

学习党章的意义、误区及可能方法

做新时期合格党员首先要从学习党章开始。学习党章则要深刻领会党章的重大意义,党章是党的鲜红旗帜、根本大法与"心学"经典。学习党章应当避免陷入常见的学习误区,还应当不断探索有效的学习方法。

基于P-S方法的金融危机预测系统构建与应用

在比较和借鉴国内外金融风险识别和防范研究成果的基础上,利用可能-满意度(P-S)方法,建立了金融危机预警系统,并相应地设计了一套金融危机预警指标体系.将该系统应用于1997年亚洲金融危机的实证研究,结果表明,该系统使用简单,并具有较好的预警能力.

基于P-S方法的天津市人口承载力分析

人口承载力分析是一个多目标决策的社会问题,承载力的确定涉及经济、资源、能源等因素。基于P-S方法的人口承载力分析是从目标实现的可能度和满意度这两个角度出发,建立可能-满意度函数,进而测算人口最优规模的过程。文章先对P-S方法进行介绍,再以天津市为例,应用P-S方法测算天津市人口的最优规模,并结合天津市人口发展现状及存在的问题给出相应的规划发展建议,以期对其他城市的人口规划发展提供借鉴。

基于可能—满意度的人口承载力及风险管理研究——以苏中市区为例

农业转移人口落户政策的推动及实施导致城市人口增多,而一定经济土地资源环境下的城市是不可能承载太多人口的,所以人口承载力的测算比较重要。本文选定苏中地区南通、扬州及泰州市区的经济、资源、公共基础设施、环境及人口健康素质等指标,首先利用可能—满意度方法测算选定指标下苏中所属各个地级市市区常住人口的承载力,然后根据数据及分析结果,提出相应的人口承载力风险管理战略建议。如苏中市区通过多种渠道加强经济建设;南通市区道路建设及卫生机构床位数需要优化;扬州市区转移人口到所属小城镇;泰州市区因人均城建面积超过国家规定,需要提升城市建设面积的使用效率等。

基于退化失效阈值可能性分布的可靠性建模

针对随机失效阈值下的退化可靠性分析问题,利用可能性分布表征失效阈值中的不确定性,提出了一种退化失效建模的可靠性分析方法,解决了预测模型中不确定性的传递问题。通过陀螺仪剩余寿命预测的案例研究,阐明了文中方法的有效性。

地市级可再生资源能源利用优化

对地市级可再生能源管理问题,建立了在确保有限的传统能源和可再生能源能满足地区各个部门在规划期内的能源总需求条件下,使整个系统的运作成本最低的可再生能源利用优化模型,并根据实际情况假设模型中除太阳能和风能的可利用量为随机变量外,其他参数均为区间数时,利用处理区间数的可能度方法和满意度方法推导该类问题的确定性等价模型.

主体功能区人口承载能力研究

从人口承载能力水平看,限制开发区、重点开发区、优化开发区总体呈现承载能力梯次降低的格局。无论优化开发区、重点开发区还是限制开发区人口承载能力满意程度出现了一定分化,人口的不平衡分布在不同开发区之间,以及开发区内部都得以显现。采取多管齐下的措施合理控制人口规模,引导人口向郊区流动,是京沪穗深等一线城市比较现实的政策取向。其他优化开发区和重点开发区应提高人口承载的短板,限制开发区要加大财政投入,提高公共服务水平,鼓励人口向宜居地区流动。

林业生态文明评价指标体系构建与应用

近年来,国家和社会越来越重视生态文明,实现林业生态文明是林业可持续发展的目标,林业生态文明评价指标体系构建是实现林业生态文明理论与实践体系建设的重要内容。文章依据科学性、系统性和可操作性原则,构建了林业生态文明评价指标体系,包括4个一级指标和22个二级指标,以及林业生态文明水平测度标准。采用德尔菲法、层次分析法和可能满意度法建立了林业生态文明建设水平定量测度评价方法,并将评价指标体系应用于广东清远市清城区林业生态文明评价实践中。结果表明:(1)该评价指标体系可以系统地评估林业生态文明建设水平,对森林资源可持续经营管理也具有一定的指导意义;(2)该评价方法体系可以用来补充完善各项林业生态建设工程建设项目的定量评估工作,对林业建设水平进行数量化管理具有一定的指导意义;(3)2011年、2013年和2015年,广东省清远市清城区林业生态文明建设水平不断提高,综合评价测度值分别为27.52、28.64、29.04,与2013年广东林业生态文明建设水平综合评价测度值41.17相比,清城区目前仍处于林业生态文明建设起步阶段,在逐步迈向林业生态文明城区具有无限发展潜力。

不确定性环境下可再生能源系统新优化模型

为发挥可再生能源在能源-经济-环境可持续发展中的积极效应,本文研究了多态不确定性环境下跨地区、跨品种、跨部门的可再生能源动态规划问题。利用满意度方法处理太阳能和风能可利用量等随机变量,利用可能度方法处理能源供应成本、需求量等区间数,再结合0-1整数规划,得到使系统成本最小的新优化模型。最后的算例说明使用的综合方法是有效合理的。

Preparation of ferromagnetic metal fine fibers by organic gel-thermal reduction process

The organic gel-thermal reduction process was used for the preparation of ferromagnetic metal Ni, Co and Fe fine fibers from the raw materials of citric acid, lactic acid and metal salts. The structure, thermal decomposition process and morphologies of the gel precursors and fibers derived from thermal reduction of these gel precursors were characterized by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction, thermo-gravimetric/differential scanning calorimetry and scanning electron microscopy. The results show that spinnability of gel largely depends on molecular structure of metal-carboxylate complex that is a linear-type structure formed in the gel. As a result, the gels exhibit a good spinnability. Metal Ni, Co and Fe fine fibers are featured with diameters of around 1 μm and a high aspect ratio up to 1×106.

Negative Temperature of Inner Horizon and Planck Absolute Entropy of a Kerr-Newman Black Hole

Considering the contribution of both the outer and inner horizons, the Hamilton-Jacobi method is applied to a Kerr-Newman black hole and a negative temperature of the inner horizon is obtained. Under the negative temperature inside the black hole, the thermodynamics of the two horizons is studied, and the new Bekenstein-Smarr formula is given. The entropies of the inner and outer horizons are all positive. The new entropy expression of the black hole satisfies the Nernst Theorem and can be regarded as the Planck absolute entropy.

多态不确定性环境下可再生能源系统优化

为了发挥可再生能源在能源-经济-环境可持续发展中的积极效应,研究了多态不确定性环境下跨地区、跨品种、跨部门的可再生能源动态规划模型。利用满意度方法处理太阳能和风能可利用量等随机变量,用可能度方法处理能源供应成本、需求量等区间数,再结合0-1整数规划,得到使系统成本最小的优化模型的确定性等价类。最后的算例说明该综合方法能给出不同系统违反水平下的能源配置方案,为政府提供参考意见。

Colorectal cancer screening behavior and willingness

The outpatient-based study by Deng et al [World J Gastroenterol 2011 July 14; 17(26): 3133-3139] on the factors that may influence the colorectal cancer (CRC) screening feasibility, encouraged our curiosity. Establishing a simple method for quickly assessing the educational level of patients and modulating a questionnaire for each type of patient, may be an effective protocol to increase the people participation, mainly in countries where sufficient medical resources and financial support are lacking. In fact, the knowledge directly affects the feasibility when screening is offered. Patient educational level influences the understanding of the knowledge and the screening method. This factor may affect patient's priority level on the study participation, the understanding of questions, and the motivation to complete the questionnaire and, consequently, the screening success. Recent studies have found a relationship between high educational level and CRC screening participation, and emphasized the question-naire ineffectiveness in the illiterate people. Although the questionnaire is an excellent method for this kind of evaluation, physician's contribution could be the most important factor associated with the screening method. Thus, further studies should be conducted to explore the compliance of patients with low educational level and to look for the best solutions for their enrollment.

Residual life estimation based on bivariate Wiener degradation process with measurement errors

An adaptive method of residual life estimation for deteriorated products with two performance characteristics (PCs) was proposed, which was sharply different from existing work that only utilized one-dimensional degradation data. Once new degradation information was available, the residual life of the product being monitored could be estimated in an adaptive manner. Here, it was assumed that the degradation of each PC over time was governed by a Wiener degradation process and the dependency between them was characterized by the Frank copula function. A bivariate Wiener process model with measurement errors was used to model the degradation measurements. A two-stage method and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method were combined to estimate the unknown parameters in sequence. Results from a numerical example about fatigue cracks show that the proposed method is valid as the relative error is small.

Optimization of Routing Considering Uncertainties

A route optimization methodology in the frame of an onboard decision support/guidance system for the ship＇s master has been developed and is presented in this paper. The method aims at the minimization of the fuel voyage cost and the risks related to the ship＇s seakeeping performance expected to be within acceptable limits of voyage duration. Parts of this methodology were implemented by interfacing alternative probability assessment methods, such as Monte Carlo, first order reliability method （FORM） and second order reliability method （SORM）, and a 3-D seakeeping code, including a software tool for the calculation of the added resistance in waves of NTUA-SDL. The entire system was integrated within the probabilistic analysis software PROBAN. Two of the main modules for the calculation of added resistance and the probabilistic assessment for the considered seakeeping hazards with respect to exceedance levels of predefined threshold values are herein elaborated and validation studies proved their efficiency in view of their implementation into an on-board optimization system.

An intelligent method for contact fatigue reliability analysis of spur gear under EHL

To complete the contact fatigue reliability analysis of spur gear under elastohydrodynamic lubrication(EHL) efficiently and accurately, an intelligent method is proposed. Oil film pressure is approximated using quadratic polynomial with intercrossing term and then mapped into the Hertz contact zone. Considering the randomness of the EHL, material properties and fatigue strength correction factors, the probabilistic reliability analysis model is established using artificial neural network(ANN). Genetic algorithm(GA) is employed to search the minimum reliability index and the design point by introducing an adjusting factor in penalty function. Reliability sensitivity analysis is completed based on the advanced first order second moment(AFOSM). Numerical example shows that the established probabilistic reliability analysis model could correctly reflect the effect of EHL on contact fatigue of spur gear, and the proposed intelligent method has an excellent global search capability as well as a highly efficient computing performance compared with the traditional Monte Carlo method(MCM).

试论BIM的应用协同--基于BIM的上海国际旅游度假区项目管理探索之二

从区域性开发商的角度,根据上海国际旅游度假区项目管理采用BIM管理体系的经验,阐述BIM技术不仅自身是解决跨专业、跨流程和跨时空的协同工具,而且在其的推广应用过程中,也需要解决软件之间、平台之间和新旧设计、施工、管理模式之间的协同,以适应多种类多层次的项目建设需求;还需要解决设计,施工,业主之间的应用步骤协同。深入分析自身需求,针对项目管理的特点,构建整个BIM体系,并在基于BIM技术的管理目标的前提下,找出协同的可能与方法,解决协同的及时性与时序问题。以项目管理的角度,从应用技术规则、招标文件到合同条款,再到现场培训实施落实考核都需要解决协同问题。通过多方向的、多层次的、多企业的跨界组织的管理协同,实现应用BIM技术提高项目管理的整体协同效率与水平。

Research on Seismic Reliability and Damage of Reinforced Concrete Frame

This paper first introduces the basic principle of seismic risk analysis, and then put forward the basic concept of structures global seismic fragility, aiming at the existing problems of traditional analysis method, combined the method of analytical approximation degree of structure reliability with Performance-Based Seismic Design （PBSD）, put forward the analysis method of structural reliability and the performance of the global seismic fragility, are calculated by using the finite element reliability method of structures global seismic fragility. Taking the maximum interlamination relative deformation as indicators of overall performance, we analyze seismic fragility of five storey RC frame structure, rendering the seismic fragility curves corresponding to different performance requirements and different earthquake action.