Previous studies show that temporal irreversibility(TI),as an important indicator of the nonlinearity of time series,is almost uniformly overestimated in the daily air temperature anomaly series over China in NCEP rea...Previous studies show that temporal irreversibility(TI),as an important indicator of the nonlinearity of time series,is almost uniformly overestimated in the daily air temperature anomaly series over China in NCEP reanalysis data,as compared with station observations.Apart from this highly overestimated TI in the NCEP reanalysis,some other important atmospheric metrics,such as predictability and extreme events,might also be overestimated since there are close relations between nonlinearity and predictability/extreme events.In this study,these issues are fully addressed,i.e.,intrinsic predictability,prediction skill,and the number of extreme events.The results show that intrinsic predictability,prediction skill,and the occurrence number of extreme events are also almost uniformly overestimated in the NCEP reanalysis daily minimum and maximum air temperature anomaly series over China.Furthermore,these overestimations of intrinsic predictability,prediction skill,and the number of extreme events are only weakly correlated with the overestimated TI,which indicates that the quality of the NCEP reanalysis should be carefully considered when conclusions on both predictability and extreme events are derived.展开更多
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 41475048,41675049,41705041]。
文摘Previous studies show that temporal irreversibility(TI),as an important indicator of the nonlinearity of time series,is almost uniformly overestimated in the daily air temperature anomaly series over China in NCEP reanalysis data,as compared with station observations.Apart from this highly overestimated TI in the NCEP reanalysis,some other important atmospheric metrics,such as predictability and extreme events,might also be overestimated since there are close relations between nonlinearity and predictability/extreme events.In this study,these issues are fully addressed,i.e.,intrinsic predictability,prediction skill,and the number of extreme events.The results show that intrinsic predictability,prediction skill,and the occurrence number of extreme events are also almost uniformly overestimated in the NCEP reanalysis daily minimum and maximum air temperature anomaly series over China.Furthermore,these overestimations of intrinsic predictability,prediction skill,and the number of extreme events are only weakly correlated with the overestimated TI,which indicates that the quality of the NCEP reanalysis should be carefully considered when conclusions on both predictability and extreme events are derived.
