一种制导弹药电子部件可靠性预计方法

目的 综合考虑制导弹药全寿命各种应力的大小及作用时间,预计制导弹药电子部件的可靠性.方法 把一般电子设备可靠性预计方法引入制导弹药,对运输和储存环境、发射使用环境,分别选用不工作和工作状态的预计方法.结果 储存10～15年的条件下,可靠度在0.895～0.91之间.结论 汇总所有电子元器件预计结果,储存10～15年,电子部件仍满足使用要求.

非线性包装系统中关键部件振动可靠度分析

研究非线性包装件中关键部件在真实的具有一定谱特征的随机振动激励下的振动可靠度。考虑到实测随机振动PSD曲线的多峰值特征,采用多阶Kanai-Tajimi模型模拟随机振动的功率谱密度,将真实随机振动在标准正态随机变量空间中离散化表达。考虑包装件中的关键部件,将包装件建模为二自由度非线性支座激励系统,应用模型修正因子法,将非线性包装件等效表示为一个线性化系统,应用一阶可靠度方法分析包装系统中关键部件的首次穿越损坏概率。应用数值分析的方法分析包装件中各参数变化对损坏概率的影响。该研究对于计算包装件损坏概率、优化包装件参数以提高振动可靠度,具有重要的指导意义。

斡件可靠性初探

本文提出了斡件和斡件可靠性的概念,以及研究斡件可靠性的必要性和紧迫性;初步探讨了研究斡件可靠性的途径和方法。

±800kV特高压直流绝缘子可靠性分析

±800kV特高压直流工程在电气、机械、运行可靠性等方面对绝缘子提出了比1000kV特高压交流工程和±500kV超高压直流工程更高的技术要求。为评估我国±800kV直流绝缘子的可靠性，分析了我国±800kV直流盘形悬式、支柱和复合空心绝缘子的制造技术及发展水平，认为我国±800kV直流绝缘子的综合技术已达国际领先水平。评估了该技术和经济可靠性，认为盘形悬式瓷和玻璃绝缘子在经济性上具有可比性，但盘形悬式复合绝缘子更具优势；瓷、瓷复合化绝缘子在经济件上具有可比性，但瓷复合化绝缘子更具优势。为确保绝缘子的运行可靠性，建议非常轻和轻污秽等级的绝缘子悬垂“Ⅰ”串优先采用160～420kN双伞型瓷绝缘子，中和重污秽等级的绝缘子悬垂“Ⅰ”串优先采用复合绝缘子；还建议在结构高度约12m的支柱瓷绝缘子瓷件表面涂敷持久性防污闪涂料（PRTV）。

SRAM型FPGA的单粒子效应及TMR设计加固

宇宙空间中存在多种高能粒子,其辐射效应会严重威胁航天器中现场可编程门阵列(FieldProgrammable Gate Array,FPGA)器件工作的可靠性。文章研究了静态随机存储器型(Static Random AccessMemory,SRAM)FPGA中的单粒子翻转效应。理论计算表明,采用三模冗余(Triple Module Redundancy,TMR)设计方法可以有效缓解FPGA中的单粒子翻转问题。针对传统TMR设计方法的不足,提出了一种改进的TMR设计架构,并将该架构应用于某星载关键控制电路的设计中。文中的研究成果对SRAM型FPGA的空间应用有一定参考作用。

基于单自由度参数激励模型的车辆随机振动分析

包装件振动可靠性的分析和优化需要构建高效准确的车辆随机振动载荷分析模型。该研究将车辆建模为单自由度参数激励系统,分析车辆在平稳载荷下的加速度响应。基于Mathieu方程分析车辆动态响应特性,结果表明,车辆响应中出现少量的大幅振动响应的原因是参数激励系统中随机过程β(t)的波动引起了系统的失稳。分别构建车辆在稳态、失稳和衰减条件下的响应分析方法,建立了车辆加速度响应的概率密度函数分析方法,构建了根据记录的试验数据识别系统参数的方法。分析结果表明,该研究建立的车辆随机振动分析方法能够高效准确地再现车辆非平稳随机振动的时域特征及概率密度函数(probability density function,PDF),为研究包装件振动可靠性提供了高效准确的分析基础。

Effect of Inertial Shock on RF MEMS Capacitive Switches Property in Low Vacuum

The influence of outside inertial shock combined with RF signal voltages on the properties of a shunt capacitive MEMS switch encapsulated in a low vacuum environment is analyzed considering the damping of the air around the MEMS switch membrane. An analytical expression that approximately computes the displacement induced by outside shock is obtained. According to the expression, the minimum required mechanical stiffness constant of an MEMS switch beam in some maximum tolerated insertion loss condition and some external inertial shock environment or the insertion loss induced by external inertial shock can also be obtained. The influence is also illustrated with an RF MEMS capacitive switch example,which shows that outside environment factors have to be taken into account when designing RF MEMS capacitive switches working in low vacuum. While encapsulating RF MEMS switches in low vacuum diminishes the air damping and improves the switch speed and operation voltage,the performances of a switch is incident to being influenced by outside environment. This study is very useful for the optimized design of RF MEMS capacitive switches working in low vacuum.

Bayesian and Multiple Bayesian Analysis of the Reliability Performances for Series System with Cold Standby Units

By using Bayesian and multiple Bayesian method, the failure probability, reliability and mean time to failure(MTTF) of series system with cold standby units are estimated. At last, we compare the two estimators by means of Monte_Carlo simulation.

Time-varying confidence interval forecasting of travel time for urban arterials using ARIMA-GARCH model

To improve the forecasting reliability of travel time, the time-varying confidence interval of travel time on arterials is forecasted using an autoregressive integrated moving average and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity （ARIMA-GARCH） model. In which, the ARIMA model is used as the mean equation of the GARCH model to model the travel time levels and the GARCH model is used to model the conditional variances of travel time. The proposed method is validated and evaluated using actual traffic flow data collected from the traffic monitoring system of Kunshan city. The evaluation results show that, compared with the conventional ARIMA model, the proposed model cannot significantly improve the forecasting performance of travel time levels but has advantage in travel time volatility forecasting. The proposed model can well capture the travel time heteroskedasticity and forecast the time-varying confidence intervals of travel time which can better reflect the volatility of observed travel times than the fixed confidence interval provided by the ARIMA model.

Component-based software reliability process simulation considering imperfect debugging

In view of the flaws of component-based software （CBS） reliability modeling and analysis, the low recognition degree of debugging process, too many assumptions and difficulties in obtaining the solution, a CBS reliability simulation process is presented incorporating the imperfect debugging and the limitation of debugging resources. Considering the effect of imperfect debugging on fault detec- tion and correction process, a CBS integration testing model is sketched by multi-queue muhichannel and finite server queuing model （MMFSQM）. Compared with the analytical method based on pa- rameters and other nonparametric approaches, the simulation approach can relax more of the usual reliability modeling assumptions and effectively expound integration testing process of CBS. Then, CBS reliability process simulation procedure is developed accordingly. The proposed simulation ap- proach is validated to be sound and effective by simulation experiment studies and analysis.

Analysis on testing and operational reliability of software

Software reliability was estimated based on NHPP software reliability growth models. Testing reliability and operational reliability may be essentially different. On the basis of analyzing similarities and differences of the testing phase and the operational phase, using the concept of operational reliability and the testing reliability, different forms of the comparison between the operational failure ratio and the predicted testing failure ratio were conducted, and the mathematical discussion and analysis were performed in detail. Finally, software optimal release was studied using software failure data. The results show that two kinds of conclusions can be derived by applying this method, one conclusion is to continue testing to meet the required reliability level of users, and the other is that testing stops when the required operational reliability is met, thus the testing cost can be reduced.

Obsolescence optimization of electronic and mechatronic components by considering dependability and energy consumption

Nowadays, rapid technological progress influences the dependability of equipments and also causes rapid obsolescence. The mechatronic and electronic equipment components are mostly affected by obsolescence. A new challenger unit possesses identical functionalities, but with higher performances. This work aims to find the optimal number of components which should be replaced by new-type units, under budgetary constraints. In this work, the new challenger unit is characterized by lower energy consumption and the optimization steps are based on genetic algorithm (GA). The result shows the importance of this type of replacement in order to economize energy consumption and to deal with obsolescence.

Test case generation based on orthogonal table for software black-box testing

Software testing is an important means to assure the software quality. This paper presents a practicable method to generate test cases of software testing, which is operational and high efficient. We discuss the identification of software specification categories and choices and make a classification tree. Based on the orthogonal array, it is easy to generate test cases. The number of this method is less than that of all combination of the choices.

Reliability Evaluation Metrics for Open Source Software Selection

Recently, Open Source Software （OSS） is so widely used not only by companies for development but also by common users instead of commercial software. However, the number of OSS is vast, and its quality varies from low to high. So how people can evaluate OSS and ensta-e that it is reliable for use becomes necessary. This paper proposes a set of reliability evaluation metrics considering the states of OSS selected in the early stage. Understandability, Fault tolerance ＆ Recoverability and Community Matmrity as sub-attributes of reliability are defined, and then several evaluation criteria for each of them are identified. A process of reliability evaluation in our study is proposed. For application, we select four OSS projects and evaluate them with our metrics. As a result of compadrison with other evaluation model for OSS, our research presents an easy, effective and trustworthy way for selecting a reliable OSS.

Early Stage Software Reliability Estimation with Stochastic Reward Nets

This paper presents software reliability modeling issues at the early stage of a software development for fault tolerant software management system. Based on Stochastic Reward Nets, an effective model of hierarchical view for a fault tolerant software management system is put forward, and an approach that consists of system transient performance analysis is adopted. A quantitative approach for software reliability analysis is given. The results show its usefulness for the design and evaluation of the early-stage software reliability modeling when failure data is not available.

On Reliability-optimized Controller Placement for Software-Defined Networks

By decoupling control plane and data plane,Software-Defined Networking(SDN) approach simplifies network management and speeds up network innovations.These benefits have led not only to prototypes,but also real SDN deployments.For wide-area SDN deployments,multiple controllers are often required,and the placement of these controllers becomes a particularly important task in the SDN context.This paper studies the problem of placing controllers in SDNs,so as to maximize the reliability of SDN control networks.We present a novel metric,called expected percentage of control path loss,to characterize the reliability of SDN control networks.We formulate the reliability-aware control placement problem,prove its NP-hardness,and examine several placement algorithms that can solve this problem.Through extensive simulations using real topologies,we show how the number of controllers and their placement influence the reliability of SDN control networks.Besides,we also found that,through strategic controller placement,the reliability of SDN control networks can be significantly improved without introducing unacceptable switch-to-controller latencies.

Multi-component opportunistic maintenance optimization for wind turbines with consideration of seasonal factor

Aiming at wind turbines,the opportunistic maintenance optimization is carried out for multi-component system,where minimal repair,imperfect repair,replacement as well as their effects on component’s effective age are considered.At each inspection point,appropriate maintenance mode is selected according to the component’s effective age and its maintenance threshold.To utilize the maintenance opportunities for the components among the wind turbines,opportunistic maintenance approach is adopted.Meanwhile,the influence of seasonal factor on the component’s failure rate and improvement factor’s decrease with the increase of repair’s times are also taken into account.The maintenance threshold is set as the decision variable,and an opportunistic maintenance optimization model is proposed to minimize wind turbine’s life-cycle maintenance cost.Moreover,genetic algorithm is adopted to solve the model,and the effectiveness is verified with a case study.The results show that based on the component’s inherent reliability and maintainability,the proposed model can provide optimal maintenance plans accordingly.Furthermore,the higher the component’s reliability and maintainability are,the less the times of repair and replacement will be.

Reliability analysis of web server cluster systems based on proportional hazards model

An approach for web server cluster(WSC)reliability and degradation process analysis is proposed.The reliability process is modeled as a non-homogeneous Markov process(NHMH)composed of several non-homogeneous Poisson processes(NHPPs).The arrival rate of each NHPP corresponds to the system software failure rate which is expressed using Cox s proportional hazards model(PHM)in terms of the cumulative and instantaneous load of the software.The cumulative load refers to software cumulative execution time,and the instantaneous load denotes the rate that the users requests arrive at a server.The result of reliability analysis is a time-varying reliability and degradation process over the WSC lifetime.Finally,the evaluation experiment shows the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Component-based software reliability analysis incorporating imperfect debugging and change-point

Against the deficiencies of component-based software(CBS) reliability modeling and analysis,for instance,importing too many assumptions,paying less attention to debugging process without considering imperfect debugging and change-point(CP) problems adequately,an approach of CBS reliability process analysis is proposed which incorporates the imperfect debugging and CP.First,perfect/imperfect debugging and CP are reviewed.Based on the queuing theory,a multi-queue multichannel and infinite server queuing model(MMISQM) is presented to sketch the integration test process of CBS.Meanwhile,considering the effects of imperfect debugging and CP,expressions for fault detection and correction are derived based on MMISQM.Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed model can sketch the integration test process of CBS with preferable performance which outperforms other models.

Software architecture based software deployment reliability estimation considering architectural style

Software today often consists of a large number of components offering and requiring services. Such components should be deployed into embedded, pervasive environments, and several deployment architectures are typically possible. These deployment architectures can have significant impacts on system reliability. However, existing reliability estimation approaches are typically limited to certain classes or exclusively concentrate on software reliability, neglecting the influence of hardware resources, software deployment and architectural styles. The selection of an appropriate architectural style has a significant impact on system reliability of the target system. Therefore, we propose a novel software architecture （SA） based reliability estimation model incorporating software deployment and architectural style. On the basis of two architectural styles, we design influence factors and present a new approach to calculate system reliability. Experimental results show that influence factors provide an accurate and simple method of reflecting architectural styles and software deployment on system reliability. It is important for considering the influence of other architectural styles on system reliability in large scale deployment environment.