To reduce typhoon-caused damages, numerical and empirical methods are often used to forecast typhoon storm surge. However, typhoon surge is a complex nonlinear process that is difficult to forecast accurately. We appl...To reduce typhoon-caused damages, numerical and empirical methods are often used to forecast typhoon storm surge. However, typhoon surge is a complex nonlinear process that is difficult to forecast accurately. We applied a principal component back-propagation neural network (PCBPNN) to predict the deviation in typhoon storm surge, in which data of the typhoon, upstream flood, and historical case studies were involved. With principal component analysis, 15 input factors were reduced to five principal components, and the application of the model was improved. Observation data from Huangpu Park in Shanghai, China were used to test the feasibility of the model. The results indicate that the model is capable of predicting a 12-hour warning before a typhoon surge.展开更多
The simulation results of Typhoon Matsa （2005） by using the Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF） model show that pro- nounced stratospheric gravity waves （GWs） are generated in the vicinity of the typhoon. Usi...The simulation results of Typhoon Matsa （2005） by using the Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF） model show that pro- nounced stratospheric gravity waves （GWs） are generated in the vicinity of the typhoon. Using the model output, we investi- gate the spatial structures and the temporal variations of the GWs through a three dimensional （3-d） spectral analysis, i.e. the spectrum with respect to two horizontal wavenumbers and frequency. We further derive the momentum flux carried by the GWs. Spectral investigation results show that the power spectral density （PSD） of the GWs exhibits a single-peaked spectrum, which consists primarily of a distinct spectrum at horizontal wavelength of -1000 km, time period of 12-18 h, and vertical wavelength of 7-9 kin. This spectrum is different from the spectra of GWs generated by deep convections disclosed by the previous researches. Both the PSD and momentum flux spectrum are prominent in positive kh portion, which is consistent with the fact that the GWs propagate in the upstream of mean flow. Large momentum flux is found to be associated with the GWs, and the net zonal momentum flux is 0.7845×10-3 Pa at 20 km height, which can account for -26% of the momentum flux that is required in driving the QBO phenomenon.展开更多
基金Supported by National Marine Public Scientific Research Fund of China(No. 200905010)the Talent Training Fund Project for Basic Sciences of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. J0730534)+2 种基金the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universitiesthe Open Research Funding Program of KLGIS (No. KLGIS2011A12)the Open Fund from Key Laboratory of Marine Management Technique of State Oceanic Administration (No. 201112)
文摘To reduce typhoon-caused damages, numerical and empirical methods are often used to forecast typhoon storm surge. However, typhoon surge is a complex nonlinear process that is difficult to forecast accurately. We applied a principal component back-propagation neural network (PCBPNN) to predict the deviation in typhoon storm surge, in which data of the typhoon, upstream flood, and historical case studies were involved. With principal component analysis, 15 input factors were reduced to five principal components, and the application of the model was improved. Observation data from Huangpu Park in Shanghai, China were used to test the feasibility of the model. The results indicate that the model is capable of predicting a 12-hour warning before a typhoon surge.
基金supported by Key Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZZD-EW-01-1)National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2010CB428603)National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41075028)
文摘The simulation results of Typhoon Matsa （2005） by using the Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF） model show that pro- nounced stratospheric gravity waves （GWs） are generated in the vicinity of the typhoon. Using the model output, we investi- gate the spatial structures and the temporal variations of the GWs through a three dimensional （3-d） spectral analysis, i.e. the spectrum with respect to two horizontal wavenumbers and frequency. We further derive the momentum flux carried by the GWs. Spectral investigation results show that the power spectral density （PSD） of the GWs exhibits a single-peaked spectrum, which consists primarily of a distinct spectrum at horizontal wavelength of -1000 km, time period of 12-18 h, and vertical wavelength of 7-9 kin. This spectrum is different from the spectra of GWs generated by deep convections disclosed by the previous researches. Both the PSD and momentum flux spectrum are prominent in positive kh portion, which is consistent with the fact that the GWs propagate in the upstream of mean flow. Large momentum flux is found to be associated with the GWs, and the net zonal momentum flux is 0.7845×10-3 Pa at 20 km height, which can account for -26% of the momentum flux that is required in driving the QBO phenomenon.
