国内长输管道工程建设EPC合同管理中的风险及防范

近年来,随着世界能源需求的不断增加,管道运输业得到了迅速发展。长输管道建设项目是“十一五”期间国家重点投资项目。随着管道工程的成功建设,中国天然气产区与能源需求市场之间的布局和流向更加合理。文章对国内长输管道工程EPC合同管理中的风险及防范进行了研究分析,希望能起到一定的参考作用。

Supply chain coordination with participators' risk bias under buy-back contract

Considering participators' risk bias,which is measured by the method of value at risk,the risk constraints in a two-echelon supply chain coordination under buy-back contract is equal to giving the order of an upper bound.With a risk-averse dominant enterprise(M)and a risk-neutral non-dominant one(R),the coordination which optimizes the supply chain under the risk constraints is achieved by a penalty mechanism L to reduce R's order.With risk-neutral M and risk-averse R,M can motivate R to increase his order by providing a risk subsidy K,and two cases are discussed.If the risk constraints of R cannot satisfy M's participation constraint to offer K,M will prefer to accept R's order to obtain a sub-optimization solution of the supply chain.Or else,with M's K,R's optimal order just coordinates the supply chain,which is equal to the case without risk bias,and in this situation R's risk bias only affects the profit distribution between the participators.

Risks and new transformations of PPP contracts

This paper tries to demonstrate that the principle of the risk allocation based on the balance is the most effective way to resolve the risk allocation problems of public-private partnership （PPP） contracts and presents suggestions how to carry out this principle. For PPP projects, it is necessary to set up a workable and commercially viable risk sharing mechanism to satisfy the different interests and the objectives of both the public sector and the private sector. An effective risk allocation mechanism is not only an important part in preparing project documents, but also an essential part in the success of PPP contracts. Risk allocation can be represented in a risk matrix. The more balanced the risk allocation is, the lower the risk degree of PPP contracts is. Therefore, the most effective risk allocation of PPP contracts is that the public sector and the private sector take part in risk management together in all the stages of the project and allocate the balanced risks. The outcomes of this paper can be used by both the public sector and the private sector to make a good choice of the PPP contract form.

Contract stability and default risk control of pig farming in the company and farmer mode

To investigate contract stability in the company and farmer mode and to explore control measures of market price risk and production risk,a multiperiod game model was established in this study.Considering multiple periods and losses caused by deaths simultaneously,a stable contract price interval depending on the breaching penalty,transaction cost,spot market price,and quantity of pigs was observed.Results indicate that the higher the penalty and transaction cost savings,the better the stability of the contract;the contract price should be negotiated around the weighted average of the spot market price.When the production risk is higher,hog insurance can significantly improve the contract stability;when the market price is lower,hog price index insurance improves the contract stability by guaranteeing the company income;when the market price is higher,the profit-returning mechanism improves the stability by protecting farmers incomes.Applying three measures simultaneously results in the best stability.Examples based on data from 2014 to 2018 in Henan Province,China,were given.

Employee Stock Options＂ Accounting for Optimal Hedging, Suboptimal Exercises, and Contractual Restrictions

Employee stock options （ESOs） have become an integral component of compensation in the US. In view of their significant cost to firms, the Financial Accounting Standards Board （FASB） has mandated expensing ESOs since 2004. The main difficulty of ESO valuation lies in the uncertain timing of exercises, and a number of contractual restrictions of ESOs further complicate the problem. We present a valuation framework that captures the main characteristics of ESOs. Specifically, we incorporate the holder＇s risk aversion, and hedging strategies that include both dynamic trading of a correlated asset and static positions in market-traded options. Their combined effect on ESO exercises and costs are evaluated along with common features like vesting periods, job termination risk and multiple exercises. This leads to the study of a joint stochastic control and optimal stopping problem. We find that ESO values are much less than the corresponding Black-Scholes prices due to early exercises, which arise from risk aversion and job termination risk; whereas static hedges induce holders to delay exercises and increase ESO costs.

The FAHP-based Risk Assessment in the Conclusion of Equipment Procurement Contract

The risk assessment of contract conclusion is the primary and key part of equipment purchase contract risk management. In this paper, based on the fuzzy characteristics of contract risks, and overcoming the traditional disadvantages of analytic hierarchy process （AHP）, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process （FAHP） of contract conclusion is proposed for meeting the actual need of equipment procurement contract risk assessment, and implementing the risk factors qualitative and quantitative assessments of different working nodes in contract conclusion. Thus, a scientific and reliable important basis is provided for the risk management of equipment procurement contract.

A Study on Preconditions Setting of Long-Term Contract between Manufacturer and Component Supplier

To provide a risk-sharing mechanism that encourages a component supplier and a manufacturer to expand their production capacity of components and products, many researches on SCM suggested that it is better for the SC players to connect a long-term contract with flexible preconditions before doing the decision-making of production capacity. With considering of the uncertainty of demand and integrity problems between SC players, it is difficult to set reasonable preconditions. As a result, under-investment problems still occur frequently. In this paper, after we had discussed the decision-making of production capacity with the preconditions by analyzing the character of the players, we verified the under-investment problem of the supply chain. In order to clarify the optimum preconditions to alleviate the under-investment problem, we also analyzed the relations between preconditions and supply capacity of the whole supply chain. In the last part of this paper, we proposed a method of preconditions setting in such uncertain situations.

Heavy Metal Concentrations in Rice from Guangzhou and Associated Health Risks

In recent years, excessive levels of cadmium（Cd） in rice have been a focus of attention of the government, the public and scientists. In Guangzhou rice is a staple food for most citizens and understanding the level of Cd and other heavy metals in rice is important for food safety and health. Consumers in different income groups purchase rice from various sources at different prices but we know little about the relationship between price and safety. At the same time, the presence of zinc（Zn） can also affect the level of risk from Cd in rice and so affect food safety. This study offers a preliminary exploration of interactions between price, safety and nutritional quality. 125 rice samples were collected from markets and from the homes of high-income, middle-income and low-income groups in Guangzhou city, and were tested for the content of Cd and Zn. The results showed that 25.6% of the rice samples contained Cd in excess of the national standard, with higher levels of Cd in Indica rice than in Japonica. At the same time, we designed a questionnaire survey for groups with different incomes to assess their exposure to risks from rice with Cd and their perceptions and sources of information about risks. The survey showed that, as a whole, the low-income group faces higher risks from rice with Cd, and that there is strong public demand for scientific information about Cd in rice.

A comparison of two methods to assess audience-induced changes in male mate choice

Multidirectional communicative interactions in social networks can have a profound effect on mate choice behavior. Male Atlantic molly Poecilia mexicana exhibit weaker mating preferences when an audience male is presented. This could be a male strategy to reduce sperm competition risk： interacting more equally with different females may be advantageous because ri- vals might copy mate choice decisions. In line with this hypothesis, a previous study found males to show a strong audience effect when being observed while exercising mate choice, but not when the rival was presented only before the choice tests. Audience effects on mate choice decisions have been quantified in poeciliid fishes using association preference designs, but it remains un- known if patterns found from measuring association times translate into actual mating behavior. Thus, we created five audience treatments simulating different forms of perceived sperm competition risk and determined focal males＇ mating preferences by scoring pre-mating （nipping） and mating behavior （gonopodial thrusting）. Nipping did not reflect the pattern that was found when association preferences were measured, while a very similar pattern was uncovered in thrusting behavior. The strongest response was observed when the audience could eavesdrop on the focal male＇s behavior. A reduction in the strength of focal males＇ preferences was also seen after the rival male had an opportunity to mate with the focal male＇s preferred mate. In comparison, the reduction of mating preferences in response to an audience was greater when measuring association times than actual mating behavior. While measuring direct sexual interactions between the focal male and both slimulus females not only the male＇s motivational state is reflected but also females＇ behavior such as avoidance of male sexual harassment [Current Zoology 58 （1）： 84-94, 2012].