In light of the practical need for research to inform policy in Beijing,this study evaluates the economic cost of the impact of PM 10 pollution in Beijing from 2001 to 2006,taking health as the main impact,and mortali...In light of the practical need for research to inform policy in Beijing,this study evaluates the economic cost of the impact of PM 10 pollution in Beijing from 2001 to 2006,taking health as the main impact,and mortality as the main outcome.Based on the literature review,this study adopts relatively conservative parameters as the basis for calculating the health impacts.It concludes that nearly 30%of mortality among registered residents above age 30 in Beijing can be attributed to PM 10 pollution,and that the economic cost equals 0.8%-1.2%of the city's GDP over the same period.This is lower than the results of previous studies,but still high enough to warrant a commitment to solve the city's air pollution problem.展开更多
China＇s environmental problems have become increasingly serious, which have caused great attention of the relevant departments of the state. Through the survey, we found that in most of the cities in our country, the...China＇s environmental problems have become increasingly serious, which have caused great attention of the relevant departments of the state. Through the survey, we found that in most of the cities in our country, the inhalable particulate matter PM10 is one of the main pollutants, especially in the capital of China -- Beijing, which is the arch-criminal cause of the air pollution. According to the quality control report released in Beijing City Environmental Protection Bureau, as can be learned, in recent years, Beijing＇s air quality goes from bad to worse, and in the overall atmospheric pollutants, the PM10 is up to above nine tenths. There are more reports saying that the air pollution levels in Beijing have been not suitable for the human habitation. With the increasing of the air pollution, the term PM2.5 is also more and more familiar to us. The air more intensified the pollution is, the greater the ratio of PM2.5 in PM10 is. In that case, it not only seriously affects the people＇s health, but also brings the huge economic losses. This paper is aimed to analyze the influence of PM2.5 on the economic situation of Beijing, and puts forward the concrete solutions.展开更多
In order to get prepared for the coming extreme pollution events and minimize their harmful impacts, the first and most important step is to predict their possible intensity in the future. Firstly, the generalized Par...In order to get prepared for the coming extreme pollution events and minimize their harmful impacts, the first and most important step is to predict their possible intensity in the future. Firstly, the generalized Pareto distribution （GPD） in extreme value theory was used to fit the extreme pollution concentrations of three main pollutants： PM10, NO2 and SO：, from 2005 to 2010 in Changsha, China. Secondly, the prediction results were compared with actual data by a scatter plot. Four statistical indicators： EMA （mean absolute error）, ERMS （root mean square error）, IA （index of agreement） and R2 （coefficient of determination） were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit as well. Thirdly, the return levels corresponding to different return periods were calculated by the fitted distributions. The fitting results show that the distribution of PM10 and SO2 belongs to exponential distribution with a short tail while that of the NOe belongs to beta distribution with a bounded tail. The scatter plot and four statistical indicators suggest that GPD agrees well with the actual data. Therefore, the fitted distribution is reliable to predict the return levels corresponding to different return periods. The predicted return levels suggest that the intensity of coming pollution events for PM10 and SO2 will be even worse in the future, which means people have to get enough preparation for them.展开更多
基金Supported by the Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education(Grant no.20070001049):pricing policy for resources products incidence of welfare impactBeijing Science and Technology Commission D09040903670905:Study on the Regional Air Pollution Control Strategy and Policy
文摘In light of the practical need for research to inform policy in Beijing,this study evaluates the economic cost of the impact of PM 10 pollution in Beijing from 2001 to 2006,taking health as the main impact,and mortality as the main outcome.Based on the literature review,this study adopts relatively conservative parameters as the basis for calculating the health impacts.It concludes that nearly 30%of mortality among registered residents above age 30 in Beijing can be attributed to PM 10 pollution,and that the economic cost equals 0.8%-1.2%of the city's GDP over the same period.This is lower than the results of previous studies,but still high enough to warrant a commitment to solve the city's air pollution problem.
文摘China＇s environmental problems have become increasingly serious, which have caused great attention of the relevant departments of the state. Through the survey, we found that in most of the cities in our country, the inhalable particulate matter PM10 is one of the main pollutants, especially in the capital of China -- Beijing, which is the arch-criminal cause of the air pollution. According to the quality control report released in Beijing City Environmental Protection Bureau, as can be learned, in recent years, Beijing＇s air quality goes from bad to worse, and in the overall atmospheric pollutants, the PM10 is up to above nine tenths. There are more reports saying that the air pollution levels in Beijing have been not suitable for the human habitation. With the increasing of the air pollution, the term PM2.5 is also more and more familiar to us. The air more intensified the pollution is, the greater the ratio of PM2.5 in PM10 is. In that case, it not only seriously affects the people＇s health, but also brings the huge economic losses. This paper is aimed to analyze the influence of PM2.5 on the economic situation of Beijing, and puts forward the concrete solutions.
基金Project(51178466) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(200545) supported by the Foundation for the Author of National Excellent Doctoral Dissertation of China+1 种基金Project(2011JQ006) supported by the Fundamental Research Funds of the Central Universities of ChinaProject(2008BAJ12B03) supported by the National Key Program of Scientific and Technical Supporting Programs of China
文摘In order to get prepared for the coming extreme pollution events and minimize their harmful impacts, the first and most important step is to predict their possible intensity in the future. Firstly, the generalized Pareto distribution （GPD） in extreme value theory was used to fit the extreme pollution concentrations of three main pollutants： PM10, NO2 and SO：, from 2005 to 2010 in Changsha, China. Secondly, the prediction results were compared with actual data by a scatter plot. Four statistical indicators： EMA （mean absolute error）, ERMS （root mean square error）, IA （index of agreement） and R2 （coefficient of determination） were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit as well. Thirdly, the return levels corresponding to different return periods were calculated by the fitted distributions. The fitting results show that the distribution of PM10 and SO2 belongs to exponential distribution with a short tail while that of the NOe belongs to beta distribution with a bounded tail. The scatter plot and four statistical indicators suggest that GPD agrees well with the actual data. Therefore, the fitted distribution is reliable to predict the return levels corresponding to different return periods. The predicted return levels suggest that the intensity of coming pollution events for PM10 and SO2 will be even worse in the future, which means people have to get enough preparation for them.
