Category-5 hurricanes are the most devastating from the standpoint of human and economic losses. The occurrence of this kind of hurricane is believed to be of quasi-random nature, so it is very difficult to predict th...Category-5 hurricanes are the most devastating from the standpoint of human and economic losses. The occurrence of this kind of hurricane is believed to be of quasi-random nature, so it is very difficult to predict them well in advance. Warnings at this regard are generally given in the course of their development. We propose here, that there are some inherently periodicities of the phenomena that allow to predict category-5 hurricanes, even with some years of anticipation. For our study, we consider the North Atlantic category-5 hurricanes since 1920. We consider in this study data of the SST （sea surface temperature） of the North Atlantic Ocean as a representative parameter of hurricane activity. Then, by means of the wavelet analysis, we determine the dominant oscillation periods and establish correspondence rules using fuzzy logic. The wavelet power spectrum yields the following dominant periodicities： 0.5, 1, 3, 11, 22 and 32 years. The fuzzy logic searches for associations between the hurricanes occurrence and the behavior of the harmonics. Such correspondence rules lead us to restrict dates of possible hurricane occurrence. Interpolation of the periodic behavior allows for a good reconstruction of past hurricanes dates since 1920, as well as extrapolation to predict dates of occurrence in the future. We conclude that the conditions for the formation of the next category-5 hurricane in the North Atlantic may occur during the seasons of 2015-2017 with the highest probability in 2017.展开更多
The reverse construction and analysis of the networks of molecular interactions are essential for understanding their functions within cells. In this paper, a logic network model is constructed to investigate the comp...The reverse construction and analysis of the networks of molecular interactions are essential for understanding their functions within cells. In this paper, a logic network model is constructed to investigate the complicated regulation mechanism of shoot genes of Arabidopsis Thaliana in response to stimuli. The dynamics of the complicated logic network is analyzed, discussed, and simulated. The simulation results show that the logic network of the active genes of shoot eventually evolves into eleven attractors under the stimuli, including five 1-periodic and six 2-periodic attractors. Our work provides valuable reference and guidance for biologists to understand and explain Arabidopsis＇ response to external stimuli by experiments.展开更多
文摘Category-5 hurricanes are the most devastating from the standpoint of human and economic losses. The occurrence of this kind of hurricane is believed to be of quasi-random nature, so it is very difficult to predict them well in advance. Warnings at this regard are generally given in the course of their development. We propose here, that there are some inherently periodicities of the phenomena that allow to predict category-5 hurricanes, even with some years of anticipation. For our study, we consider the North Atlantic category-5 hurricanes since 1920. We consider in this study data of the SST （sea surface temperature） of the North Atlantic Ocean as a representative parameter of hurricane activity. Then, by means of the wavelet analysis, we determine the dominant oscillation periods and establish correspondence rules using fuzzy logic. The wavelet power spectrum yields the following dominant periodicities： 0.5, 1, 3, 11, 22 and 32 years. The fuzzy logic searches for associations between the hurricanes occurrence and the behavior of the harmonics. Such correspondence rules lead us to restrict dates of possible hurricane occurrence. Interpolation of the periodic behavior allows for a good reconstruction of past hurricanes dates since 1920, as well as extrapolation to predict dates of occurrence in the future. We conclude that the conditions for the formation of the next category-5 hurricane in the North Atlantic may occur during the seasons of 2015-2017 with the highest probability in 2017.
基金This research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 60874036 and 60503002.
文摘The reverse construction and analysis of the networks of molecular interactions are essential for understanding their functions within cells. In this paper, a logic network model is constructed to investigate the complicated regulation mechanism of shoot genes of Arabidopsis Thaliana in response to stimuli. The dynamics of the complicated logic network is analyzed, discussed, and simulated. The simulation results show that the logic network of the active genes of shoot eventually evolves into eleven attractors under the stimuli, including five 1-periodic and six 2-periodic attractors. Our work provides valuable reference and guidance for biologists to understand and explain Arabidopsis＇ response to external stimuli by experiments.
