Historically, Crescent City is one of the most vulnerable communities impacted by tsunamis along the west coast of the United States, largely attributed to its offshore geography. Trans-ocean tsunamis usually produce ...Historically, Crescent City is one of the most vulnerable communities impacted by tsunamis along the west coast of the United States, largely attributed to its offshore geography. Trans-ocean tsunamis usually produce large wave runup at Crescent Harbor resulting in catastrophic damages, property loss and human death. How to determine the return values of tsunami height using relatively short-term observation data is of great significance to assess the tsunami hazards and improve engineering design along the coast of Crescent City. In the present study, the extreme tsunami heights observed along the coast of Crescent City from 1938 to 2015 are fitted using six different probabilistic distributions, namely, the Gumbel distribution, the Weibull distribution, the maximum entropy distribution, the lognormal distribution, the generalized extreme value distribution and the generalized Pareto distribution. The maximum likelihood method is applied to estimate the parameters of all above distributions. Both Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and root mean square error method are utilized for goodness-of-fit test and the better fitting distribution is selected. Assuming that the occurrence frequency of tsunami in each year follows the Poisson distribution, the Poisson compound extreme value distribution can be used to fit the annual maximum tsunami amplitude, and then the point and interval estimations of return tsunami heights are calculated for structural design. The results show that the Poisson compound extreme value distribution fits tsunami heights very well and is suitable to determine the return tsunami heights for coastal disaster prevention.展开更多
A checking on seismic and tsunami hazard for coastal nuclear power plant (NPP) of Chinese continent has been made after Japanese Fukushima nuclear accident caused by earthquake tsunami. The results of the checking are...A checking on seismic and tsunami hazard for coastal nuclear power plant (NPP) of Chinese continent has been made after Japanese Fukushima nuclear accident caused by earthquake tsunami. The results of the checking are introduced briefly in this paper,including the evaluations of seismic and tsunami hazard in NPP siting period,checking results on seismic and tsunami hazard. Because Chinese coastal area belongs to the continental shelf and far from the boundary of plate collision,the tsunami hazard is not significant for coastal area of Chinese continent. However,the effect from tsunami still can't be excluded absolutely since calculated result of Manila trench tsunami source although the tsunami wave is lower than water level from storm surge. The research about earthquake tsunami will continue in future. The tsunami warning system and emergency program of NPP will be established based on principle of defense in depth in China.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (51279186, 51479183, 51509227)the National Key Research and Development Program (2016YFC0802301)+1 种基金the National Program on Key Basic Research Project (2011CB013704)the Shandong Province Natural Science Foundation, China (ZR2014EEQ030)
文摘Historically, Crescent City is one of the most vulnerable communities impacted by tsunamis along the west coast of the United States, largely attributed to its offshore geography. Trans-ocean tsunamis usually produce large wave runup at Crescent Harbor resulting in catastrophic damages, property loss and human death. How to determine the return values of tsunami height using relatively short-term observation data is of great significance to assess the tsunami hazards and improve engineering design along the coast of Crescent City. In the present study, the extreme tsunami heights observed along the coast of Crescent City from 1938 to 2015 are fitted using six different probabilistic distributions, namely, the Gumbel distribution, the Weibull distribution, the maximum entropy distribution, the lognormal distribution, the generalized extreme value distribution and the generalized Pareto distribution. The maximum likelihood method is applied to estimate the parameters of all above distributions. Both Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and root mean square error method are utilized for goodness-of-fit test and the better fitting distribution is selected. Assuming that the occurrence frequency of tsunami in each year follows the Poisson distribution, the Poisson compound extreme value distribution can be used to fit the annual maximum tsunami amplitude, and then the point and interval estimations of return tsunami heights are calculated for structural design. The results show that the Poisson compound extreme value distribution fits tsunami heights very well and is suitable to determine the return tsunami heights for coastal disaster prevention.
文摘A checking on seismic and tsunami hazard for coastal nuclear power plant (NPP) of Chinese continent has been made after Japanese Fukushima nuclear accident caused by earthquake tsunami. The results of the checking are introduced briefly in this paper,including the evaluations of seismic and tsunami hazard in NPP siting period,checking results on seismic and tsunami hazard. Because Chinese coastal area belongs to the continental shelf and far from the boundary of plate collision,the tsunami hazard is not significant for coastal area of Chinese continent. However,the effect from tsunami still can't be excluded absolutely since calculated result of Manila trench tsunami source although the tsunami wave is lower than water level from storm surge. The research about earthquake tsunami will continue in future. The tsunami warning system and emergency program of NPP will be established based on principle of defense in depth in China.
