Recently, study in past trends of climate variables gained significant consideration because of its contribution in adaptions and mitigation strategies for potential future changes in climate, primarily in the area of...Recently, study in past trends of climate variables gained significant consideration because of its contribution in adaptions and mitigation strategies for potential future changes in climate, primarily in the area of water resource management. Future interannual and inter-seasonal variations in maximum and minimum temperature may bring significant changes in hydrological systems and affect regional water resources. The present study has been performed to observe past(1970-2010) as well as future(2011-2100)spatial and temporal variability in temperature(maximum and minimum) over selected stations of Sutlej basin located in North-Western Himalayan region in India. The generation of future time series of temperature data at different stations is done using statistical downscaling technique. The nonparametric test methods, modified Mann-Kendall test and Cumulative Sum chart are used for detecting monotonic trend and sequential shift in time series of maximum and minimum temperature. Sen's slope estimator test is used to detect the magnitude of change over a period of time on annual and seasonal basis. The cooling experienced in annual TMax and TMin at Kasol in past(1970-2010) would be replaced by warming in future as increasing trends are detected in TMax during 2020 s and 2050 s and in TMin during 2020 s, 2050 s and 2080 s under A1 B and A2 scenarios. Similar results of warming are also predicted at Sunnifor annual TMin in future under both scenarios which witnessed cooling during 1970-2010. The rise in TMin at Rampur is predicted to be continued in future as increasing trends are obtained under both the scenarios. Seasonal trend analysis reveals large variability in trends of TMax and TMin over these stations for the future periods.展开更多
This study analyzes the vegetative and soil degradation,measured as biomass and soil loss,for Arnigad micro-watershed located in Indian Himalayan state of Uttarakhand,in systems framework by using dynamic linear progr...This study analyzes the vegetative and soil degradation,measured as biomass and soil loss,for Arnigad micro-watershed located in Indian Himalayan state of Uttarakhand,in systems framework by using dynamic linear programming bio-economic model.The focus is at investigating the effects of alternate policy regimes,i.e.,introduction of improved energy sources for cooking along with substitution of existing local livestock breeds with improved breed,reduction in human population growth and introduction of high yielding varieties of main crops including paddy,maize and wheat.The model horizon extended over a period of 25 years,i.e.,from 2006 to 2030.It was found that the model scenario incorporating increased use of improved energy sources along with substitution of local cows by improved cows could be the most effective policy option in reducing vegetative and soil degradation.The vegetative biomass density declined to 19.76% compared to 35.24% in the BASE scenario and soil erosion loss was also lowered by 29.13%.Also,the reduction of population growth rate to half of the BASE scenario led to minor improvements in degradation.Introduction of high yielding varieties of main crops slightly increased vegetative degradation but reduced soil loss(8.35%) with respect to the BASE scenario.Such a phenomenon could be explained in terms of changed crop mix resulting in reduced amount of crop by-products requiring increased lopping of tree branches for animal fodder.The policy option of the increased use of improved energy sources along with substitution of improved breed of cows resulted in 9.58% higher income.Introduction of high yielding varieties of crops led to 1.92% increase in income,but the income decreased by 1.25 % when population growth was reduced to half.The usefulness of the model lies in analyzing the systems behavior in its entirety where the results can predict the possible direction of change as a result of manipulation in alternate economic regimes.展开更多
A U-Pb-He double-dating method is applied to detrital zircons with core-rim structure from the Ganges River in order to de- termine average short and long-term exhumation rates for the Himalayas. Long-term rates are c...A U-Pb-He double-dating method is applied to detrital zircons with core-rim structure from the Ganges River in order to de- termine average short and long-term exhumation rates for the Himalayas. Long-term rates are calculated from the U/Pb ages of metamorphic rims of the grains that formed during the Himalayan orogeny and their crystallization temperatures, which are calculated from the Ti-in-zircon thermometer. Short-term rates are calculated from （U-Th）/He ages of the grains with appro- priate closure temperatures. The results show that short-term rates for the Himalayas, which range from 0.70 ± 0.09 to 2.67 ± 0.40 km/Myr and average 1.75 ± 0.59 （1δ） km/Myr, are higher and more varied than the long-term rates, which range from 0.84 ±0.16 to 1.85 ± 0.35 km/Myr and average 1.26 ±0.25 （let） km/Myr. The differences between the long-term and short-term rates can be attributed to continuous exhumation of the host rocks in different mechanisms in continental collision orogen. The U/Pb ages of 44.0 ± 3.7 to 18.3 ±0.5 Ma for the zircon rims indicate a protracted episode of -：25 Myr for regional metamorphism of the host rocks at deeper crust, whereas the （U-Th）/He ages of 42.2 ± 1.8 to 1.3 ± 0.2 Ma for the zircon grains represent a protracted period of -40 Myr for exposure of the host rocks to shallower crustal level. In particular, the oldest （U-Th）/He ages of the zircon grains are close to the oldest U/Pb ages for the rims, indicating that some parcels of the rocks that contain zircons were rapidly exhumed from deep to shallow levels in the stage of collisional orogeny. On the other hand, some parcels of the rocks may have been carried upwards by thrust faults in the post-collisional stage. The parcels could be carried upwards by the thrust faults that steepen as they near the surface, or by transient movement faults so that areas of rapid exhu- mation became areas of slow exhumation and visa versa on a time scale of a few Myr in order to maintain the continuous ex- humation. In this regard, the Ganges River must be preferentially sampling areas that are currently undergoing above average rates of uplift.展开更多
基金financial support in the form of fellowship provided by University Grant Commission (UGC), Government of India to Mr. Dharmaveer Singh as Research Fellow for carrying out the research
文摘Recently, study in past trends of climate variables gained significant consideration because of its contribution in adaptions and mitigation strategies for potential future changes in climate, primarily in the area of water resource management. Future interannual and inter-seasonal variations in maximum and minimum temperature may bring significant changes in hydrological systems and affect regional water resources. The present study has been performed to observe past(1970-2010) as well as future(2011-2100)spatial and temporal variability in temperature(maximum and minimum) over selected stations of Sutlej basin located in North-Western Himalayan region in India. The generation of future time series of temperature data at different stations is done using statistical downscaling technique. The nonparametric test methods, modified Mann-Kendall test and Cumulative Sum chart are used for detecting monotonic trend and sequential shift in time series of maximum and minimum temperature. Sen's slope estimator test is used to detect the magnitude of change over a period of time on annual and seasonal basis. The cooling experienced in annual TMax and TMin at Kasol in past(1970-2010) would be replaced by warming in future as increasing trends are detected in TMax during 2020 s and 2050 s and in TMin during 2020 s, 2050 s and 2080 s under A1 B and A2 scenarios. Similar results of warming are also predicted at Sunnifor annual TMin in future under both scenarios which witnessed cooling during 1970-2010. The rise in TMin at Rampur is predicted to be continued in future as increasing trends are obtained under both the scenarios. Seasonal trend analysis reveals large variability in trends of TMax and TMin over these stations for the future periods.
基金a part of research project:An Interdisciplinary Approach to Analyze the Dynamics of Forest and Soil Degradation and to Develop Sustainable Agro-ecological Strategies for Fragile Himalayan Watersheds,funded by the European Union
文摘This study analyzes the vegetative and soil degradation,measured as biomass and soil loss,for Arnigad micro-watershed located in Indian Himalayan state of Uttarakhand,in systems framework by using dynamic linear programming bio-economic model.The focus is at investigating the effects of alternate policy regimes,i.e.,introduction of improved energy sources for cooking along with substitution of existing local livestock breeds with improved breed,reduction in human population growth and introduction of high yielding varieties of main crops including paddy,maize and wheat.The model horizon extended over a period of 25 years,i.e.,from 2006 to 2030.It was found that the model scenario incorporating increased use of improved energy sources along with substitution of local cows by improved cows could be the most effective policy option in reducing vegetative and soil degradation.The vegetative biomass density declined to 19.76% compared to 35.24% in the BASE scenario and soil erosion loss was also lowered by 29.13%.Also,the reduction of population growth rate to half of the BASE scenario led to minor improvements in degradation.Introduction of high yielding varieties of main crops slightly increased vegetative degradation but reduced soil loss(8.35%) with respect to the BASE scenario.Such a phenomenon could be explained in terms of changed crop mix resulting in reduced amount of crop by-products requiring increased lopping of tree branches for animal fodder.The policy option of the increased use of improved energy sources along with substitution of improved breed of cows resulted in 9.58% higher income.Introduction of high yielding varieties of crops led to 1.92% increase in income,but the income decreased by 1.25 % when population growth was reduced to half.The usefulness of the model lies in analyzing the systems behavior in its entirety where the results can predict the possible direction of change as a result of manipulation in alternate economic regimes.
基金supported by the Australian Research Council Discovery Project(Grant No.DP 0556923)the Chinese Academy of Sciences Distinguished ProfessorshipGuangzhou Institute of Geochemistry,Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.Y234041001)
文摘A U-Pb-He double-dating method is applied to detrital zircons with core-rim structure from the Ganges River in order to de- termine average short and long-term exhumation rates for the Himalayas. Long-term rates are calculated from the U/Pb ages of metamorphic rims of the grains that formed during the Himalayan orogeny and their crystallization temperatures, which are calculated from the Ti-in-zircon thermometer. Short-term rates are calculated from （U-Th）/He ages of the grains with appro- priate closure temperatures. The results show that short-term rates for the Himalayas, which range from 0.70 ± 0.09 to 2.67 ± 0.40 km/Myr and average 1.75 ± 0.59 （1δ） km/Myr, are higher and more varied than the long-term rates, which range from 0.84 ±0.16 to 1.85 ± 0.35 km/Myr and average 1.26 ±0.25 （let） km/Myr. The differences between the long-term and short-term rates can be attributed to continuous exhumation of the host rocks in different mechanisms in continental collision orogen. The U/Pb ages of 44.0 ± 3.7 to 18.3 ±0.5 Ma for the zircon rims indicate a protracted episode of -：25 Myr for regional metamorphism of the host rocks at deeper crust, whereas the （U-Th）/He ages of 42.2 ± 1.8 to 1.3 ± 0.2 Ma for the zircon grains represent a protracted period of -40 Myr for exposure of the host rocks to shallower crustal level. In particular, the oldest （U-Th）/He ages of the zircon grains are close to the oldest U/Pb ages for the rims, indicating that some parcels of the rocks that contain zircons were rapidly exhumed from deep to shallow levels in the stage of collisional orogeny. On the other hand, some parcels of the rocks may have been carried upwards by thrust faults in the post-collisional stage. The parcels could be carried upwards by the thrust faults that steepen as they near the surface, or by transient movement faults so that areas of rapid exhu- mation became areas of slow exhumation and visa versa on a time scale of a few Myr in order to maintain the continuous ex- humation. In this regard, the Ganges River must be preferentially sampling areas that are currently undergoing above average rates of uplift.
