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多因子连乘集合气象灾害预报模式
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作者 顾节经 《中文科技期刊数据库(全文版)自然科学》 2019年第6期122-123,共2页
多因子连乘集合预报模式简称连乘法,是双因子点聚图预报方法的创新。它将众多双因子点聚图都进行四级同化取值,再用连乘方法将取值进行集合,然后仔细分析各连乘子集的预报概率就能做出正确的预报。该模式是唯一能将动力、统计、天气图... 多因子连乘集合预报模式简称连乘法,是双因子点聚图预报方法的创新。它将众多双因子点聚图都进行四级同化取值,再用连乘方法将取值进行集合,然后仔细分析各连乘子集的预报概率就能做出正确的预报。该模式是唯一能将动力、统计、天气图云图等多种预报方法集合一起的预报模式,能使基层气象台预报当地气象灾害的准确率达90%以上。 展开更多
关键词 多因子 连乘集合 预报模式 气象灾害 四级同化
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CORRECTION OF ASYMMETRIC STRENGTHENING OF QUIKSCAT WIND FIELD AND ASSIMILATION APPLICATION IN TYPHOON SIMULATION 被引量:4
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作者 王亮 陆汉城 +1 位作者 潘晓滨 张云 《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 SCIE 2009年第1期78-82,共5页
As an approach to the technological problem that the wind data of QuikSCAT scatterometer cannot accurately describe the zone of typhoon-level strong wind speed, some objective factors such as the typhoon moving speed,... As an approach to the technological problem that the wind data of QuikSCAT scatterometer cannot accurately describe the zone of typhoon-level strong wind speed, some objective factors such as the typhoon moving speed, direction and friction are introduced in this study to construct the asymmetric strengthening of the QuikSCAT wind field. Then by adopting a technology of four-dimensional data assimilation, an experiment that includes both the assimilation and forecasting phases is designed to simulate Typhoon Rananim numerically. The results show that with model constraints and adjustment, this technology can incorporate the QuikSCAT wind data to the entire column of the model atmosphere, improve greatly the simulating effects of the whole-column wind, pressure field and the track as well as the simulated typhoon intensity covered by the forecast phase, and work positively for the forecasting of landfall locations. 展开更多
关键词 Numerical simulation typhoon forecast data assimilation QuikSCAT wind field asymmetric bogus model
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