Quantifying the coastal mean sea level change causing by the winter positive phase of the North Atlantic oscillation index NAO＋ at the Gulf of Finland coast is of high priority for detecting and predicting the global...Quantifying the coastal mean sea level change causing by the winter positive phase of the North Atlantic oscillation index NAO＋ at the Gulf of Finland coast is of high priority for detecting and predicting the global warming impact in this region. Both boreal winter months and season of three long-term data station series of the coastal mean sea levels and the NAO indices were linked for two cases, i.e.： different periods and the 1977-1994 period. This study is dedicated to： （1） Detecting the exclusive impacts of the NAO＋; （2） Estimating the significant standard bivariate linear regression models; （3） Calculating the climatic linear trend coefficient by using three methods （OLS, GLS, Theil-Sen）; （4） Correcting the mean sea level series anomalies by using the significant linear regression equations as a function of NAO＋ anomalies, over the period 1977-1994; （5） Calculating the realistic linear trend caused as a function of NAO＋ for period 1977-1994 in the context of the realistic portion of the global warming. The results reveal that, the NAO＋ manifests their impacts on the coastal mean sea levels and its contribution in the configured linear trends. The realistic linear changes have detected and predicted. The Gulf of Finland coast showed the wannest regions in the context of the realistic portion of the global warming during the winters of the period 1977-1994.展开更多
The aim of this paper is to investigate the mediating factors of fertility levels and trends in Sub-Saharan African CSSA） countries. The major sources of data of the study are the 2001 and 2002 UNDP （United Nations ...The aim of this paper is to investigate the mediating factors of fertility levels and trends in Sub-Saharan African CSSA） countries. The major sources of data of the study are the 2001 and 2002 UNDP （United Nations Development Program）, covering 42 SSA countries. The selected antecedent variables of fertility levels and trends include： GDP per capita; female adult literacy rate; infant mortality rate; contraceptive prevalence rate; breastfeeding; access to health services; undernutrition; and level of urbanization. The main analytical techniques of the study include simple central tendency descriptive statistics and advanced multiple regression models. The outputs of the correlation matrix and regression models are shown to influence the levels and trends of fertility positively or negatively, increasing or decreasing fertility levels among the countries. But, contraceptive prevalence level appears to be relatively powerful at 5% significance level, relatively more decline with the level of urbanization and positively related with poverty level, which cumulatively gives rise to 5.9 total fertility rate per woman. Accordingly, with declining mortality and high fertility level, the era of rapid population growth in SSA countries has not yet been over with all its implications on sustainable development.展开更多
文摘Quantifying the coastal mean sea level change causing by the winter positive phase of the North Atlantic oscillation index NAO＋ at the Gulf of Finland coast is of high priority for detecting and predicting the global warming impact in this region. Both boreal winter months and season of three long-term data station series of the coastal mean sea levels and the NAO indices were linked for two cases, i.e.： different periods and the 1977-1994 period. This study is dedicated to： （1） Detecting the exclusive impacts of the NAO＋; （2） Estimating the significant standard bivariate linear regression models; （3） Calculating the climatic linear trend coefficient by using three methods （OLS, GLS, Theil-Sen）; （4） Correcting the mean sea level series anomalies by using the significant linear regression equations as a function of NAO＋ anomalies, over the period 1977-1994; （5） Calculating the realistic linear trend caused as a function of NAO＋ for period 1977-1994 in the context of the realistic portion of the global warming. The results reveal that, the NAO＋ manifests their impacts on the coastal mean sea levels and its contribution in the configured linear trends. The realistic linear changes have detected and predicted. The Gulf of Finland coast showed the wannest regions in the context of the realistic portion of the global warming during the winters of the period 1977-1994.
文摘The aim of this paper is to investigate the mediating factors of fertility levels and trends in Sub-Saharan African CSSA） countries. The major sources of data of the study are the 2001 and 2002 UNDP （United Nations Development Program）, covering 42 SSA countries. The selected antecedent variables of fertility levels and trends include： GDP per capita; female adult literacy rate; infant mortality rate; contraceptive prevalence rate; breastfeeding; access to health services; undernutrition; and level of urbanization. The main analytical techniques of the study include simple central tendency descriptive statistics and advanced multiple regression models. The outputs of the correlation matrix and regression models are shown to influence the levels and trends of fertility positively or negatively, increasing or decreasing fertility levels among the countries. But, contraceptive prevalence level appears to be relatively powerful at 5% significance level, relatively more decline with the level of urbanization and positively related with poverty level, which cumulatively gives rise to 5.9 total fertility rate per woman. Accordingly, with declining mortality and high fertility level, the era of rapid population growth in SSA countries has not yet been over with all its implications on sustainable development.
