This study demonstrates how the volatility index （VIX） can help predict the returns for sequential trading days. Using a logit function and previous VIX information, we present an initial attempt to estimate the pro...This study demonstrates how the volatility index （VIX） can help predict the returns for sequential trading days. Using a logit function and previous VIX information, we present an initial attempt to estimate the probability of a positive market return. The estimation procedure is applied to recent data on the S＆P500 and to the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bonds yields. Our findings indicate that such a relationship does exist and is significant, especially for the bond market. We also ran an investment simulation using different VIX scores and found that from 2004 to June 2009, VIX=18 was the score that yielded the highest.展开更多
Let (X,Y) be an R^d×R^1 valued random vector (X_1,Y_1),…, (X_n,Y_n) be a random sample drawn from (X,Y), and let E|Y|<∞. The regression function m(x)=E(Y|X=x) for x∈R^d is estimated by where, and h_n is a p...Let (X,Y) be an R^d×R^1 valued random vector (X_1,Y_1),…, (X_n,Y_n) be a random sample drawn from (X,Y), and let E|Y|<∞. The regression function m(x)=E(Y|X=x) for x∈R^d is estimated by where, and h_n is a positive number depending upon n only, nad K is a given nonnegative function on R^d. In the paper, we study the L_p convergence rate of kernel estimate m_n(x) of m(x) in suitable condition, and improve and extend the results of Wei Lansheng.展开更多
This paper studies estimation in partial functional linear quantile regression in which the dependent variable is related to both a vector of finite length and a function-valued random variable as predictor variables....This paper studies estimation in partial functional linear quantile regression in which the dependent variable is related to both a vector of finite length and a function-valued random variable as predictor variables. The slope function is estimated by the functional principal component basis. The asymptotic distribution of the estimator of the vector of slope parameters is derived and the global convergence rate of the quantile estimator of unknown slope function is established under suitable norm. It is showed that this rate is optirnal in a minimax sense under some smoothness assumptions on the covariance kernel of the covariate and the slope function. The convergence rate of the mean squared prediction error for the proposed estimators is also established. Finite sample properties of our procedures are studied through Monte Carlo simulations. A real data example about Berkeley growth data is used to illustrate our proposed methodology.展开更多
文摘This study demonstrates how the volatility index （VIX） can help predict the returns for sequential trading days. Using a logit function and previous VIX information, we present an initial attempt to estimate the probability of a positive market return. The estimation procedure is applied to recent data on the S＆P500 and to the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bonds yields. Our findings indicate that such a relationship does exist and is significant, especially for the bond market. We also ran an investment simulation using different VIX scores and found that from 2004 to June 2009, VIX=18 was the score that yielded the highest.
文摘Let (X,Y) be an R^d×R^1 valued random vector (X_1,Y_1),…, (X_n,Y_n) be a random sample drawn from (X,Y), and let E|Y|<∞. The regression function m(x)=E(Y|X=x) for x∈R^d is estimated by where, and h_n is a positive number depending upon n only, nad K is a given nonnegative function on R^d. In the paper, we study the L_p convergence rate of kernel estimate m_n(x) of m(x) in suitable condition, and improve and extend the results of Wei Lansheng.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.11071120)
文摘This paper studies estimation in partial functional linear quantile regression in which the dependent variable is related to both a vector of finite length and a function-valued random variable as predictor variables. The slope function is estimated by the functional principal component basis. The asymptotic distribution of the estimator of the vector of slope parameters is derived and the global convergence rate of the quantile estimator of unknown slope function is established under suitable norm. It is showed that this rate is optirnal in a minimax sense under some smoothness assumptions on the covariance kernel of the covariate and the slope function. The convergence rate of the mean squared prediction error for the proposed estimators is also established. Finite sample properties of our procedures are studied through Monte Carlo simulations. A real data example about Berkeley growth data is used to illustrate our proposed methodology.
