This paper describes the dynamic characteristics of pipelines laid through alluvial valleys. We assume that the alluvial valley has a semi-cylindrical cross-section. The ground motion of alluvial valley under harmonic...This paper describes the dynamic characteristics of pipelines laid through alluvial valleys. We assume that the alluvial valley has a semi-cylindrical cross-section. The ground motion of alluvial valley under harmonic seismic SH waves is carried out, and the pipeline-soil dynamic interaction is taken into account. Though simple, the model may qualitatively explain the earthquake damages of pipelines laid through an alluvial river valley.展开更多
The characteristics of climatic change and fiver runoff, as well as the response of fiver runoff to climatic change in the northern Xinjiang are analyzed on the basis of the hydrological and meteorological data over t...The characteristics of climatic change and fiver runoff, as well as the response of fiver runoff to climatic change in the northern Xinjiang are analyzed on the basis of the hydrological and meteorological data over the last 50 years by the methods of Mann-Kendall nonparametric test and the nonlinear regression model. The results show that： 1） The temperature and the precipitation increased significantly in the whole northern Xinjiang, but the precipitation displayed no obvious change, or even a decreasing trend in the northern mountainous area of the northern Xinjiang. 2） River runoff varied in different regions in the northern Xinjiang. It significantly increased in the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the north of the northern Xinjiang （p = 0.05）, while slightly ificreased in the west of the northern Xinjiang. 3） North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO） affects fiver runoff by influencing temperature and precipitation. The NAO and precipitation had apparent significant correlations with the fiver runoff, but the temperature did not in the northern Xinjiang. Since the mid-1990s fiver runoff increase was mainly caused by the increasing temperature in the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the north of the northern Xinjiang. Increased precipitation resulted in increased fiver runoff in the west of the northern Xinjiang.展开更多
Taking the nonlinear nature of runoff system into account,and combining auto-regression method and multi-regression method,a Nonlinear Mixed Regression Model (NMR) was established to analyze the impact of temperature ...Taking the nonlinear nature of runoff system into account,and combining auto-regression method and multi-regression method,a Nonlinear Mixed Regression Model (NMR) was established to analyze the impact of temperature and precipitation changes on annual river runoff process. The model was calibrated and verified by using BP neural network with observed meteorological and runoff data from Daiying Hydrological Station in the Chaohe River of Hebei Province in 1956–2000. Compared with auto-regression model,linear multi-regression model and linear mixed regression model,NMR can improve forecasting precision remarkably. Therefore,the simulation of climate change scenarios was carried out by NMR. The results show that the nonlinear mixed regression model can simulate annual river runoff well.展开更多
Heavy floods occur frequently in the Senegal River Basin, causing catastrophic flooding downstream the river rating station of Bakel. Anticipating the occurrence of such phenomena is the only way to reduce the resulti...Heavy floods occur frequently in the Senegal River Basin, causing catastrophic flooding downstream the river rating station of Bakel. Anticipating the occurrence of such phenomena is the only way to reduce the resulting damages. Flood forecasting is a necessity. Flood forecasting plays also an important role in the implementation of flood management scenarios and in the protection of hydro electric structures. Many methods are applied. The most complete are based on the conservation laws of physics governing the free surface flow. These methods need a complete description of the geometry of the river and their implementation requires also huge investments. In practice the river basin can be considered as a system of inputs-outputs related by a transfer function. In this paper the authors first used a multiple linear regression model with constant parameters estimated by the ordinary least square method to simulate the propagation of the floods in the upstream part of the Senegal river basin. The authors then apply statistical and graphical criteria of goodness-of-fit to test the suitability of this model. Three procedures of parameters updating have then been added to this linear model： the Kalman filter method, the recursive least square method, and the stochastic gradient method The criteria of goodness-of-fit used above have shown that the stochastic gradient method, although more rudimentary, represents better the flood propagation in the head basin of the Senegal river upstream Bakel. This result is particularly interesting because data influenced by Manantali Dam are used.展开更多
文摘This paper describes the dynamic characteristics of pipelines laid through alluvial valleys. We assume that the alluvial valley has a semi-cylindrical cross-section. The ground motion of alluvial valley under harmonic seismic SH waves is carried out, and the pipeline-soil dynamic interaction is taken into account. Though simple, the model may qualitatively explain the earthquake damages of pipelines laid through an alluvial river valley.
基金Under the auspices of Knowledge Innovation Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX2-YW-127, KZCX2-XB2-03-01, KZCX2-Q10-5-4)
文摘The characteristics of climatic change and fiver runoff, as well as the response of fiver runoff to climatic change in the northern Xinjiang are analyzed on the basis of the hydrological and meteorological data over the last 50 years by the methods of Mann-Kendall nonparametric test and the nonlinear regression model. The results show that： 1） The temperature and the precipitation increased significantly in the whole northern Xinjiang, but the precipitation displayed no obvious change, or even a decreasing trend in the northern mountainous area of the northern Xinjiang. 2） River runoff varied in different regions in the northern Xinjiang. It significantly increased in the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the north of the northern Xinjiang （p = 0.05）, while slightly ificreased in the west of the northern Xinjiang. 3） North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO） affects fiver runoff by influencing temperature and precipitation. The NAO and precipitation had apparent significant correlations with the fiver runoff, but the temperature did not in the northern Xinjiang. Since the mid-1990s fiver runoff increase was mainly caused by the increasing temperature in the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the north of the northern Xinjiang. Increased precipitation resulted in increased fiver runoff in the west of the northern Xinjiang.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 50809004)
文摘Taking the nonlinear nature of runoff system into account,and combining auto-regression method and multi-regression method,a Nonlinear Mixed Regression Model (NMR) was established to analyze the impact of temperature and precipitation changes on annual river runoff process. The model was calibrated and verified by using BP neural network with observed meteorological and runoff data from Daiying Hydrological Station in the Chaohe River of Hebei Province in 1956–2000. Compared with auto-regression model,linear multi-regression model and linear mixed regression model,NMR can improve forecasting precision remarkably. Therefore,the simulation of climate change scenarios was carried out by NMR. The results show that the nonlinear mixed regression model can simulate annual river runoff well.
文摘Heavy floods occur frequently in the Senegal River Basin, causing catastrophic flooding downstream the river rating station of Bakel. Anticipating the occurrence of such phenomena is the only way to reduce the resulting damages. Flood forecasting is a necessity. Flood forecasting plays also an important role in the implementation of flood management scenarios and in the protection of hydro electric structures. Many methods are applied. The most complete are based on the conservation laws of physics governing the free surface flow. These methods need a complete description of the geometry of the river and their implementation requires also huge investments. In practice the river basin can be considered as a system of inputs-outputs related by a transfer function. In this paper the authors first used a multiple linear regression model with constant parameters estimated by the ordinary least square method to simulate the propagation of the floods in the upstream part of the Senegal river basin. The authors then apply statistical and graphical criteria of goodness-of-fit to test the suitability of this model. Three procedures of parameters updating have then been added to this linear model： the Kalman filter method, the recursive least square method, and the stochastic gradient method The criteria of goodness-of-fit used above have shown that the stochastic gradient method, although more rudimentary, represents better the flood propagation in the head basin of the Senegal river upstream Bakel. This result is particularly interesting because data influenced by Manantali Dam are used.
