农药械市场需要量的短期预测

湖南省常德地区是商品粮棉的主产区之一。从1981年秋季开始,全区农村实行“大包干”的生产责任制,在这个新形势下,全区农药械(主要指手动喷务器、喷粉器)的市场需要量在近期内将是一个怎样的发展趋势呢?为了把这个问题搞清楚,去年初地区农资公司到浬县、临浬、桃源县农村进行调查分析,广泛了解农民对农药械需要量及品种型号的要求的基础上,又结合运用历史资料进行了定性和定量的预测分析,预测分析得出的结论是:一九八二年全区农药械市场需要量趋于饱和,预测全年的销售量只能达到158778部,将比上年减少10万部,如果在晚稻生产中遇到较大的病虫害,其销售量可望达到20万部,一年后。

因果关系与函数关系的联系和区别

对因果关系与函数关系的关系问题,哲学界持有不同的看法。一种认为因果关系不能用函数关系来表达,两者毫无联系;另一种认为因果关系就是函数关系,两者完全是一回事。我认为这两种看法都是不正确的,它们之所以不正确,就是因为没有注意把握因果关系和函数关系的联系和区别。函数关系的概念,是数学的基本概念之一,这一概念反映现象之间客观存在着的联系。两个数可以处于如下的联系之中:假如X这个数具有不同的值,而y这个数按照一定规则随之改变自己的值,那末这两个数就处于函数关系中,y是x的函数,其公式为y=f(x)。一个数为因变数,另一个数为自变数。通过函数关系的形式,可以表明各种极不相同的联系,包括一些外部的、不重要的。

股市时空(三十五) 五月之前的走势猜想

2009年,国际国内宏观经济的不可预知因素实在太多了。反映到股市上来,亦因变数太多而使得市场主力瞻前顾后,上落维艰。短中期走势两种可能从较大的形态看,从11月17日至本周末,共41个交易日,运行在一个2100点至1814点的箱体之中。我们要注意的是,在熊市中,"

美国中小公司对出口活动意义的理解

调查了中小企业执行经理对出口经营积极性的理解。调查是通过有偿答卷进行的。在邮寄出的500份问题表中收到了235份答卷，即回答率为44．8％。出口经验的因变数表明了公司参加出口活动的时间长短。参加的类别表分为1（未加入）到5级（即超过20年）。67％的企业是私人公司。答卷的加工处理使用了MANOVA统计程序。由于抽样带有地区性质，所以结果不能普遍用于美国的所有出口商。公司规模是出口活动经济水平的重要测定器。指出了改变对这些公司的出口支持的必要性。

Adaptive Fuzzy Neural Control of Dynamic System

Aim To build an adaptive fuzzy neural controller and simulate it. Methods\ Fuzzy logic and back propagation(BP) algorithm are combined to utilize their advantages while avoiding the disadvantages. Results and Conclusion\ Simulation results of the third order plant with disturbances and dead times show the validity of the presented controller. The presented controller can control cases that preceding controllers were unable to control.

Sunitinib for Taiwan Residents patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumor after imatinib treatment failure or intolerance

AIM:To report preliminary results of the efficacy and safety of sunitinib in the management of Taiwan Residents gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST) patients facing imatinib mesylate (IM) intolerance or failure.METHODS:Between 2001 and May 2010,199 Taiwan Residents patients with metastatic GIST were treated at Chang Gung Memorial Hospital.Among them,23 (11.6%) patients receiving sunitinib were investigated.RESULTS:Sixteen male and 7 female patients with a median age of 59 years (range:24-83 years) received sunitinib.Twenty-two GIST patients changed to sunitinib because of IM failure and 1 because of intolerance.The median duration of sunitinib administration was 6.0 mo (range:2-29 mo).The clinical benefit was 65.2% [2 complete response (CR),4 partial response (PR),and 9 stationary disease (SD);15/23].In 12 patients harboring mutations of the kit gene at exon 11,the clinical benefit rate (CR,PR,and SD) was 75.0% and 6 patients with tumors containing kit exon 9 mutations had a clinical benefit of 50.0% (not significant,P=0.344).The progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) did not differ between patients whose GISTs had wild type,KIT exon 9,or KIT exon 11 mutations.Hand-foot syndrome was the most common cause of grade Ⅲ adverse effect (26.1%),followed by anemia (17.4%),and neutropenia (13.0%).During the median 7.5-mo follow-up after sunitinib use,the median PFS and OS of these 23 GIST patients after sunitinib treatment were 8.4 and 14.1 mo,respectively.CONCLUSION:Sunitinib appears to be an effective treatment for Taiwan Residents with IM-resistant/intolerant GISTs and induced a sustained clinical benefit in more than 50% of Taiwan Residents advanced GIST patients.

New Approach for Solving Master Equations in Quantum Optics and Quantum Statistics by Virtue of Thermo-Entangled State Representation

By introducing a fictitious mode to be a counterpart mode of the system mode under review we introduce the entangled state representation （η｜, which can arrange master equations of density operators p（t） in quantum statistics as state-vector evolution equations due to the elegant properties of （η｜. In this way many master equations （respectively describing damping oscillator, laser, phase sensitive, and phase diffusion processes with different initial density operators） can be concisely solved. Specially, for a damping process characteristic of the decay constant k we find that the matrix element of p（t） at time t in 〈η｜ representation is proportional to that of the initial po in the decayed entangled state （ηe^-kt｜ representation, accompanying with a Gaussian damping factor. Thus we have a new insight about the nature of the dissipative process. We also set up the so-called thermo-entangled state representation of density operators, ρ = f（d^2η/π）（η｜ρ〉D（η）, which is different from all the previous known representations.

Microsatellite analysis of variation among wild, domesticated, and genetically improved populations of blunt snout bream （Megalobrama amblycephala）

In the present study, the genetic diversity of one selected strain （Pujiang No. 1）, two domesticated populations （GA and HX） and four wild populations （LZ, YN, SS and JL） of blunt snout bream （Megalobrama amblycephala） was analyzed using 17 microsatellite markers. The results showed that an average of 4.88-7.65 number of alleles （A）; an average of 3.20-5.33 effective alleles （Ne）; average observed beterozygosity （Ho） of 0.6985-0.9044; average expected beterozygosity （He） of 0.6501--0.7805; and the average polymorphism information content （PIC） at 0.5706-0.7226. Pairwise FST value between populations ranged from 0.0307-0.1451, and Nei＇s standard genetic distance between populations was 0.0938-0.4524. The expected heterozygosities in the domesticated populations （GA and HX） were significantly lower than those found in three wild populations （LZ, SS and JL）, but no difference was detected when compared with the wild YN population. Likewise, no difference was found between the four wild populations or two domesticated populations. The expected heterozygosity in Pujiang No. 1 was higher than the two domesticated populations and lower than the four wild populations. Regarding pairwise Fsr value between populations, permutation test P-values were significant between the GA, HX and PJ populations, but not between the four wild populations. These results showed that the expected beterozygosity in the selected strain of blunt snout bream, after seven generations of selective breeding, was lower than that of wild populations, but this strain retains higher levels of genetic diversity than domesticated populations. The genetic differences and differentiation amongst wild populations, domesticated populations and the genetically improved strain of blunt snout bream will provide important conservation criteria and guide the utilization of germplasm resources.

Measurement-based approach for identification of static load model of electric power system

The validity of electric power system simulation or prediction models depends on static load model. Measurement- based approach is the unique method to identify them adequately. The measured power depends on both load reaction to supply voltage alteration and random process of load alteration Basically, there is no any universal method that can single out the inherent static load model from experimental data. The paper offers a proprietary technique which is the particular solution of the task. The technique considers the selection of neighboring measurement pairs with the supply voltage altering significantly be-tween them, the exclusion of selected pairs by load power factor and subsequent selection of the inherent static load model presented as the polynomial load model. The usage of the technique to identify static load model at “Fenster” industrial enterprise （in Borisov city） is presented. The ideas considered in the paper can be used for future development of static load model identification methods with the data obtained during both active experiment and in other operating models of electric power systems.

Weekend and nighttime effect on the prognosis of peptic ulcer bleeding

AIM:To evaluate whether weekend or nighttime admission affects prognosis of peptic ulcer bleeding despite early endoscopy.METHODS:Retrospective data collection from four referral centers,all of which had a formal out-of-hours emergency endoscopy service,even at weekends.A total of 388 patients with bleeding peptic ulcers who were admitted via the emergency room between January 2007 and December 2009 were enrolled.Analyzed parameters included time from patients' arrival until endoscopy,mortality,rebleeding,need for surgery and length of hospital stay.RESULTS:The weekday and weekend admission groups comprised 326 and 62 patients,respectively.There were no significant differences in baseline characteristics between the two groups,except for younger age in the weekend group.Most patients (97%) had undergone early endoscopy,which resulted in a low mortality rate regardless of point of presentation (1.8% overall vs 1.6% on the weekend).The only outcome that was worse in the weekend group was a higher rate of rebleeding (12% vs 21%,P = 0.030).However,multivariate analysis revealed nighttime admission and a high Rockall score (≥ 6) as significant independent risk factors for rebleeding,rather than weekend admission.CONCLUSION:Early endoscopy for peptic ulcer bleeding can prevent the weekend effect,and nighttime admission was identified as a novel risk factor for rebleeding,namely the nighttime effect.

Slope stability analysis considering joined influences of nonlinearity and dilation

The soil masses of slopes were assumed to follow a nonlinear failure criterion and a nonassociated flow rule.The stability factors of slopes were calculated using vertical slice method based on limit analysis.The potential sliding mass was divided into a series of vertical slices as well as the traditional slice technique.Equating the external work rate to the internal energy dissipation,the optimum solutions to stability factors were determined by the nonlinear programming algorithm.From the numerical results,it is found that the present solutions agree well with previous results when the nonlinear criterion reduces to the linear criterion,and the nonassociated flow rule reduces to the associated flow rule.The stability factors decrease by 39.7%with nonlinear parameter varying from 1.0 to 3.0.Dilation and nonlinearity have significant effects on the slope stability factors.

Deformation inhomogeneity due to sample-anvil friction in cylindrical compression test

Finite element(FEM)analysis was used to systematically evaluate the inhomogeneity of deformation in cylindrical samples with various sample-anvil friction coefficients,m.It was found that the level of friction strongly influences the deformation homogeneity,which increases significantly with the friction coefficient although the overall geometry of the samples almost remains the same when m >0.4.The position,at which the effective strain along the maximum radial direction in a compressed sample is equal to the equivalent strain of the sample,does not vary greatly with respect to both equivalent strain of the sample and m.Hardness measurements of compressed cylindrical 5056B Al alloy samples revealed a change of effective strain distribution similar to that revealed by FEM analysis.There exists a quantitative relationship between the hardness and the effective strain if no recrystallization or recovery occurs during the compression process.

Association between TLR7 copy number variations and hepatitis B virus infection outcome in Chinese

AIM To explore whether copy number variations (CNVs) of toll-like receptor 7 (TLR7) are associated with susceptibility to chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. METHODS This study included 623 patients (495 males and 128 females) with chronic hepatitis B virus infection (CHB) and 300 patients (135 females and 165 males) with acute hepatitis B virus infection (AHB) as controls. All CHB patients were further categorized according to disease progression after HBV infection (CHB, liver cirrhosis, or hepatocellular carcinoma). Copy numbers of the TLR7 gene were measured using the AccuCopy method chi(2) tests were used to evaluate the association between TLR7 CNVs and infection type. P values, odds ratios, and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used to estimate the effects of risk. RESULTS Among male patients, there were significant differences between the AHB group and CHB group in the distribution of TLR7 CNVs. Low copy numberof TLR7 was significantly associated with chronic HBV infection (OR = 0.329, 95% CI: 0.229-0.473, P > 0.001). Difference in TLR7 copy number was also found between AHB and CHB female patients, with low copy number again associated with an increased risk of chronic HBV infection (OR = 0.292, 95% CI: 0.173- 0.492, P < 0.001). However, there were no significant differences in TLR7 copy number among the three types of chronic HBV infection (CHB, liver cirrhosis, or hepatocellular carcinoma). In addition, there was no association between TLR7 copy number and titer of the HBV e antigen. CONCLUSION Low TLR7 copy number is a risk factor for chronic HBV infection but is not associated with later stages of disease progression.

Analysis of molecular variation in porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus in China between 2007 and 2012

In the present study, 89 porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus(PRRSV) isolates in China during 2007 to 2012 were randomly selected from the GenBank genetic sequence database. Evolutionary characteristics of these isolates were analyzed based on the sequences of non-struc-tural protein 2(Nsp2) and glycoprotein 5(GP5). The genetic variations of the isolates were also compared with six representative strains. The results showed that a high degree of genetic diversity exists among the PRRSV population in China. Highly pathogenic PRRSV isolates, with a discon-tinuous deletion of a 30 amino acid residue in the Nsp2 region, remained the most dominant virus throughout 2007–2012 in China. Owing to the extensive use of representative vaccine strains, natu-ral recombination events occurred between strains. Three isolates – HH08, DY, and YN-2011 – were more closely related to vaccine strains than the other isolates. Both YN-2011 and DY were the evolu-tionary products of recombination events between strains SP and CH-1R. The results of the present study provide useful information for the epidemiology of PRRSV as well as for vaccine development.

Bose-Einstein Condensation in Linear Sigma Model at Hartree Approximation

The BEG of charged pions is investigated in the framework of O（4） linear sigma model. By using Cornwall- Jackiw-Tomboufis formalism, we have derived the gap equations for the effective masses of the mesons at finite temperature and finite isospin density. The critical temperature and phase diagram of BEG are discussed in the non-chiral limit at Hartree approximation.

Nonlinear Dynamic Analysis of Planetary Gear Train System with Meshing Beyond Pitch Point

Nonlinear dynamic analysis was performed on a planetary gear transmission system with meshing beyond the pitch point.The parameters of the planetary gear system were optimized,and a two-dimensional nonlinear dynamic model was established using the lumped-mass method.Time-varying meshing stiffness was calculated by the energy method.The model consumes the backlash,bearing clearance,time-varying meshing stiffness,time-varying bearing stiffness,and time-varying friction coefficient.The time-varying bearing stiffness was calculated according to the Hertz contact theory.The load distribution among the gears was computed,and the time-varying friction coefficient was calculated according to elastohydrodynamic lubrication(EHL)theory.The dynamical equations were solved via numerical integration.The global bifurcation characteristics caused by the input speed,backlash,bearing clearance,and damping were analyzed.The system was in a chaotic state at natural frequencies or frequency multiplication.The system transitioned from a single-period state to a chaotic state with the increase of the backlash.The bearing clearance of the sun gear had little influence on the bifurcation characteristics.The amplitude was restrained in the chaotic state as the damping ratio increased.

DC boost converter with buck buffer

For a conventional high-power active power factor correction(APFC)boost converter,its output capacitor needs to be precharged,which means that two power switches of the main circuit and the control circuit are needed to be respectively turned on and turned off in a fixed order.After the main circuit switch is turned on,it is necessary to wait for precharging before turning on the control circuit power switch.Once an inadvertent operation is performed,an overcurrent phenomenon from the output capacitor will occur.In this study,the buck circuit is used as the pre-stage snubber circuit,which can directly supply power to the circuit without precharging the output capacitor.As a result,potential safety hazard caused by the overcurrent due to the capacitor and the charging maloperation during the start-up stage can be avoided.Theoretical analysis and simulation experiment show that the DC boost converter with buck buffer can maintain the peak value of the main circuit within the safe range when the device boot does not precharge the output capacitor,and thus the safety and stable operation of the DC boost converter are ensured.

Experimental study on explosive mechanism of spontaneous combustion gangue dump

In order to explore the reason for the frequency explosion of spontaneous combustion coal gangue dump and get to know their explosion mechanism, established the experiment platform about spontaneous combustion coal gangue dump interoperable water. The gangue dump was heated using the external heat source, and rainy weather through water mist was simulated. Simulated experiment about explosion of spontaneous combustion coal gangue dump was carried out on the different conditions of the rainfall or not. The unusual gases produced in the course of gangue combustion and the changes in temperature were observed, and their impacts on the explosion of gangue dump were analyzed. The experimental results show that overall warming phenomenon of the gangue dump after watering occurred, the amount of H2 is three times than that before watering, and the amount of CO is far greater than that on the conditions of no-watering, at the same time combining with local observation and tests. It is found that the content of the oxygen reduce with the temperature increasing; however, gangue dump internal hydrogen content increase unusually on the rainfall conditions at 90 ℃, but the local measuring points reach the explosion limit. The existence of the CO and H2 is the main reason for inducing the explosion of spontaneous combustion coal gangue dump.

Detection of Shigella gyrA mutations and correlations between gyrA mutations and quinolones resistance

118 clinical strains of Shigella were serotyped, in which 116 strains were tested to be S. flexneri. The susceptibilities of the S .flexneri strains to quinolones were measured by the disk-diffusion method. It was found that most S .flexneri strains were susceptible to norfloxacin and ciprofloxacin, but resistant to nalidixic acid. To study the correlation between gyrA mutations and quinolones resistance, a fragment within the gyrA gene was amplified by PCR. The SSCP （Single-Strand Conformation Polymorphism） analysis was applied to detect mutations in PCR products of different strains. The mutations were then confirmed by DNA sequencing. Altogether, two types of mutation were revealed, in which one type was single mutation （ C42-T）, and the other was double mutations （ C42-T and A54- G）. By statistical analysis, C42-T （encoding Ser83-keu substitution） was shown to have correlation with nalidixic-acid resistance in the clinical strains of Shigella, while A54-G （encoding Asp87-Gly substitution） was shown to have correlations with both norfloxacin resistance and ciprofloxacin resistance.