终端区管制系统风险因素分析的DEMATEL-ISM模型

为提高空管系统安全管理水平,提出基于过程的故障模式及影响分析(FMEA)方法,识别终端区管制系统潜在的风险因素;构建DEMATEL—ISM模型,运用决策实验室分析(DEMATEL)模型计算各风险因素的影响度和被影响度,确定要素的因果属性和中心度排序,运用解释结构模型(ISM)构建系统风险递阶结构,表征管制系统中各风险因素的致因属性和层次关系;并以某终端区管制系统为例,验证DEMATEL—ISM模型的有效性。结果表明:DEMATEL—ISM模型可将所论系统的风险因素按致因属性分为3个类别,即6个直接致因、10个过渡致因和3个本质致因;递阶结构可有效表征终端区管制系统风险的内在关联,实现系统风险分析。

技术创新中的逻辑构想

技术创新过程中的思维活动 ,是非逻辑思维和逻辑思维共同作用的结果。从知识到发明创造与从经验到发明创造所表现的逻辑思维形态是不一样的 ,前者为由原理到物化的过程 ,后者为原理、功能、结构、手段、方法的类推或移植。

Nonlinear correlation between RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices

The correlation between Renminbi(RMB) internationalization and nonferrous metal prices was studied using the nonlinear Granger causality test and the dynamic conditional correlation-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic(DCC-GARCH) model. The results indicate that the relationship between RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices reflects a complex nonlinear mechanism. There was no mutual influence between RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices prior to the trials of the RMB settlement in the cross-border trade in July 2009. Since then, however, a bidirectional causal relationship between RMB internationalization and the price of copper and a unidirectional causal relationship from the price of aluminum to RMB internationalization were examined. In addition, due to the impact of extreme events, such as economic and financial crises, RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices are not always positively correlated but are rather occasionally negatively correlated.

特普理论与心灵因果问题

自从特普理论被引入心灵因果讨论中以来,其为因果相关属性的探讨提供了一条重要路径。特普方案认为,心灵因果关系项中的因果相关属性不是共相而是特普,进而包括因果排斥、"作为……因致"等心灵因果问题都将迎刃而解。本文试图指出,特普理论作为介于共相实在论和标准唯名论中间的一种理论立场,在兼具二者优点的同时也不可避免地继承了二者的理论困难。特普方案并未能确保心灵属性独特的因果效力,更为严重地是,它仍未摆脱多重可实现论证的威胁。