中国对外直接投资发展阶段的实证分析

根据自1982年至2004年间的中国时间序列数据,基于邓宁的IDP理论,分析中国净对外直接投资的趋势,表明中国的对外直接投资仍处于投资发展周期的第二阶段。通过考察中国国内生产总值与中国对外直接投资、外商直接投资和中国净对外直接投资之间的格兰杰(Granger)因果性关系及用回归方法重建中国净对外直接投资模型,判定中国现阶段应处于邓宁的IDP理论之第二阶段末第三阶段初。但对照中国的净对外直接投资数据还没有回升的迹象,表明中国对外直接投资发展滞后。

地方政府预算是以收定支吗?——一个结构性因果关系理论假说

本文提出一个结构性因果关系理论假说,阐释地方财政收入对地方财政支出的影响机理,并基于中国2000—2013年336个地级市的面板数据,利用工具变量法识别地方财政收入对地方财政支出的因果性影响。研究表明:地方财政收入对地方财政支出的因果性影响取决于地方财政收入来源——自有财政收入尤其是税收收入对地方财政支出具有负的因果性影响,非自有财政收入则对地方财政支出产生正的因果性影响,其中专项转移支付收入的正影响尤为突出,这主要源于非自有财政收入的成本转嫁效应。地方政府存在较明显的支出偏向,尤其表现在增量支出上对教育和社会保障的关注较弱,且与总支出相比,各类财政收入对教育和社会保障支出的影响力度较小。与其他地区相比,非自有财政收入特别是专项转移支付收入对财政总支出的正影响在东部地区更为突出。

Nonlinear correlation between RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices

The correlation between Renminbi(RMB) internationalization and nonferrous metal prices was studied using the nonlinear Granger causality test and the dynamic conditional correlation-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic(DCC-GARCH) model. The results indicate that the relationship between RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices reflects a complex nonlinear mechanism. There was no mutual influence between RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices prior to the trials of the RMB settlement in the cross-border trade in July 2009. Since then, however, a bidirectional causal relationship between RMB internationalization and the price of copper and a unidirectional causal relationship from the price of aluminum to RMB internationalization were examined. In addition, due to the impact of extreme events, such as economic and financial crises, RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices are not always positively correlated but are rather occasionally negatively correlated.

Human endogenous retroviruses and cancer:Causality and therapeutic possibilities

A substantial part of the human genome is derived from transposable elements;remnants of ancient retroviral infections.Conservative estimates set the percentage of human endogenous retroviruses(HERVs) in the genome at 8%.For the most part,the interplay between mutations,epigenetic mechanisms and posttranscriptional regulations silence HERVs in somatic cells.We first highlight mechanisms by which activation of members of several HERV families may be associated with tumor development before discussing the arising chances for both diagnosis and therapy.It has been shown that at least in some cases,tumor cells expressing HERV open reading frames(ORFs) thus gain tumor-promoting functions.However,since these proteins are not expressed in healthy tissues,they become prime target structures.Of potential pharmacological interest are the prevention of HERV transposition,the inhibition of HERV-encoded protein expression and the interference with these proteins' activities.Evidence from recent studies unequivocally proves that HERV ORFs represent a very interesting source of novel tumor-specific antigens with even the potential to surpass entity boundaries.The development of new tumor(immune-) therapies is a very active field and true tumor-specific targets are of outstanding interest since they minimize the risk of autoimmunity and could reduce side effects.Finally,we postulate on main future research streams in order to stimulate discussion on this hot topic.

Distinct colonoscopy findings of microscopic colitis:Not so microscopic after all?

Microscopic colitis(MC) is considered an "umbrella term",comprising two subtypes,i.e.,collagenous colitis(CC) and lymphocytic colitis(LC).They are classically associated with normal or unremarkable colonoscopy.In the last few years,reports have been published revealing findings that are thought to be characteristic or pathognomonic of MC,especially CC.A systematic electronic and manual search of PubMed and EMBASE(to December 2010),for publications on distinct endoscopic findings in MC,resulted in 42 relevant reports for inclusion in this review.Eighty eight patients with collagenous colitis were presented.Only one publication describing a distinct endoscopic pattern in LC was found.Typical findings in CC are alteration of the vascular mucosal pattern,mucosal nodularity,a sequence of change from mucosal defects to mucosal cicatricial lesions,and perhaps(although of doubtful relevance) mucosal pseudomembranes.A causal connection of mucosal defects with the use of lansoprazole seems to exist.Adoption of the proposed lesion description herein is recommended in order to improve homogeneity of future reports.

Causal Stability Conditions for General Relativistic Spacetimes

A brief overview of some open questions in general relativity with important consequences for causality theory is presented, aiming to a better understanding of the causal structure of the spacetime. Special attention is accorded to the problem of fundamental causal stability conditions. Several questions are raised and some of the potential consequences of recent results regarding the causality problem in general relativity are presented. A key question is whether causality violating regions are locally allowed. The new concept of almost stable causality is introduced; meanwhile, related conditions and criteria for the stability and almost stability of the causal structure are discussed.

Statistical Separability of the World and Consistency Between Quantum Theory, Relativity, and Causality

We show that the quantum world with non-local states and original statistics is statistically separable. According to relativistic dynamics, the super-luminal signal transmission is impossible. The present quantum theory is therefore consistent with the relativity and the causality.

DID SPECULATIVE ACTIVITIES CONTRIBUTE TO HIGH CRUDE OIL PRICES DURING 1993 TO 2008?

By applying two nonlinear Granger causality testing methods and rolling window strategy to explore the relationship between speculative activities and crude oil prices, the unidirectional Granger causality from speculative activities to returns of crude oil prices during the high price phase is discovered. It is proved that speculative activities did contribute to high crude oil prices after the Asian financial crisis and OPEC＇s output cut in 1998. The unidirectional Granger causality from returns of crude oil prices to speculative activities is significant in general. But after 2000, with the sharp rise in crude oil prices, this unidirectional Granger causality became a complex nonlinear relationship, which cannot be detected by any linear Granger causaIity test.

TESTING LINEAR AND NONLINEAR GRANGER CAUSALITY IN CSI300 FUTURES AND SPOT MARKETS BASED ON NEW CONCEPTS OF NONLINEAR POSITIVE/NEGATIVE SPILLOVER

supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.71125005 70871108 and 70810107020;; Outstanding Talents Funds of Organization Department Beijing Committee of CPC

LEARNING CAUSAL GRAPHS OF NONLINEAR STRUCTURAL VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL USING INFORMATION THEORY CRITERIA

Detection and clarification of cause-effect relationships among variables is an important problem in time series analysis. Traditional causality inference methods have a salient limitation that the model must be linear and with Gaussian noise. Although additive model regression can effectively infer the nonlinear causal relationships of additive nonlinear time series, it suffers from the limitation that contemporaneous causal relationships of variables must be linear and not always valid to test conditional independence relations. This paper provides a nonparametric method that employs both mutual information and conditional mutual information to identify causal structure of a class of nonlinear time series models, which extends the additive nonlinear times series to nonlinear structural vector autoregressive models. An algorithm is developed to learn the contemporaneous and the lagged causal relationships of variables. Simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of the nroosed method.

The two Kantian notions of causality： an analytic enquiry

In response to the tricky problem, raised by Hume, of the relationship between causality and freedom, Kant came up with the concept of two kinds of causality： causality of nature and causality of freedom. While the former belongs in the phenomenal realm in the context of speculative reason, the latter, no more than a negative notion in the transcendental realm of things-in-themselves, nevertheless acquires actual objectivity in the context of practical reason. What causality of freedom confirms is freedom in the transcendental rather than the psychological sense. As Kant saw it, these two kinds of causality coexist in divided form in man, who is an existing being both in the realm of phenomena and in that of things-in-themselves. After Kant, it was Marx who, critically synthesizing the contributions of Hegel and Sehopenhauer, succeeded in revealing the hidden answer to the question of Kant＇s concept of two kinds of causality. That is productive labor, which implies both the dimension of goals and the causality of freedom and that of the causality of nature and historical causality. In the context of Marx＇s historical materialism, productive labor emerges as a kingdom of necessity at the very basis of the kingdom of freedom.

Comprehension of functional support by enculturated chimpanzees Pan troglodytes

Studies of causal understanding of tool relationships in captive chimpanzees have yielded disparate findings, particularly those reported by Povinelli ＆ colleagues （2000） for tool tasks by laboratory chimpanzees. The present set of experiments tested nine enculturated chimpanzees on three versions of a support task, as described by Povinelli （2000）, during which food re- wards were presented in different experimental configurations. In Experiment 1, stimulus pairs included a choice between a cloth with a reward on the upper right comer or with a second reward off the cloth, adjacent to a comer, with the second pair comprised of a cloth with food on the upper right comer, and a second cloth with the reward on the substrate, partially covered. All subjects were successful with both test conditions in Experiment 1. In a second study, the experimental choices included one of two possi- ble correct options, paired with one of three incorrect options, with the three incorrect choices all involving varying degrees of perceptual containment. All nine chimpanzees scored significantly above chance across all six conditions. In Experiment 3, four unique conditions were presented, combining one of two possible correct choices with one of two incorrect choices. Six of the subjects scored significantly above chance across the four conditions, and group performance on individual conditions was also significant. Superior performance was demonstrated by female subjects in Experiment 3, similar to sex differences in tool use previously reported for wild chimpanzees and some tool tasks in captive chimpanzees. The present results for Experiments 2 ＆ 3 were significantly differed from those reported by Povinelli et al. （2000） for laboratory-born, peer-reared chimpanzees. One contribution towards the dramatic differences between the two study populations may be the significant rearing and housing differences of the chimpanzee groups. One explanation is that under conditions of enculturation, rich social interactions with humans and conspecifics, as well as active exploration of artifacts, materials, and other aspects of their physical environment had a significant impact on the animals＇ ability to recognize the support relationships among the stimulus choices. Overall, the present findings provide strong support for the hypothesis that our chimpanzee subjects based their responses on an understanding of functional support which represented one facet of their folk physics repertoire [Current Zoology 57 （4）： 429-440, 2011].

Notes on shear viscosity bound violation in anisotropic models

The shear viscosity bound violation in Einstein gravity for anisotropic black branes is discussed, with the aim of constraining the deviation of the shear viscosity-entropy density ratio from the shear viscosity bound using causality and thermodynamics analysis.The results show that no stringent constraints can be imposed. The diffusion bound in anisotropic plaases is also studied. Ultimately, it is concluded that shear viscosity violation always occurs in cases where the equation of motion of the metric fluctuations cannot be written in a form identical to that of the minimally coupled massless scalar fields.