论强纲领中的因果性模型问题

布鲁尔强纲领中所反对的目的论模型来源于巴恩斯提出的目的论模式,他们都拒绝将科学的发展看作真理进化过程,认为作为一种信念的科学知识应当纳入知识社会学的研究领域。布鲁尔进一步提出了与目的论模型相对立的因果性模型,并构建出科学知识社会学应当遵守的四条“强纲领”,力图促使知识社会学成为一门普遍性的学科。布鲁尔声称强纲领的因果性模型与目的论模型是两种相互排斥的形而上学立场,但实际上因果性模型与目的论模型并不完全排斥,甚至还有所交融;同时,他关于因果性模型的论证与辩护也存在诸多问题,是一种不彻底的“强纲领”。

原始问题命制中科学性与因果性的讨论

本文以高考模考题中两个常见题目为例,从状态模型的科学性和过程模型的因果性两个角度对原始问题命制的误区进行了分析和探讨,并对结果进行了科学的论证。

Nonlinear correlation between RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices

The correlation between Renminbi(RMB) internationalization and nonferrous metal prices was studied using the nonlinear Granger causality test and the dynamic conditional correlation-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic(DCC-GARCH) model. The results indicate that the relationship between RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices reflects a complex nonlinear mechanism. There was no mutual influence between RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices prior to the trials of the RMB settlement in the cross-border trade in July 2009. Since then, however, a bidirectional causal relationship between RMB internationalization and the price of copper and a unidirectional causal relationship from the price of aluminum to RMB internationalization were examined. In addition, due to the impact of extreme events, such as economic and financial crises, RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices are not always positively correlated but are rather occasionally negatively correlated.

中国对外贸易和经济增长关系的实证研究

在已有理论和实证分析的基础上,本文对我国对外贸易和经济增长的关系进行了的实证检验。在实证过程中,本文综合利用了 Granger,Sims和 Geweke 等非因果检验方法,并进一步考察了扩展的多变量因果性检验模型及其检验。实证结果显示:中国的经济增长和对外贸易(包括进口和出口)存在着互为因果的反馈关系;中国的经济增长对对外贸易的促进作用明显大于对外贸易对经济增长的带动作用;在引入外资、政府开支、劳动力投入和能源消耗多种变量后,外贸和经济增长之间的双向因果联系反而有所加强。