基于“因果关系反馈环”模型的公司和农户交易行为分析

运用新经济社会学的经验性研究方法——"因果关系反馈环"模型,分析了公司和农户之间的复杂交易关系。研究结果表明,由因果关系反馈形成的相互依赖,可以减轻公司和农户之间的"套牢"风险,这种相互依赖机制作为一种控制关系性风险的手段,是最小化交易成本的一种契约性制度安排。

基于因果关系反馈环的专业承包企业营销行为与策略研究

为打破专业承包企业市场地位和利润水平低的困境,以新经济社会学的经验型研究方法--因果关系反馈环模型分析了专业承包企业的市场交易模式、专业承包市场现状及企业营销现状,运用系统动力学软件Vensim PLE构建了专业承包企业的市场营销行为模型,在此基础上基于Causes Tree分析提出了由顾客需求,顾客成本,顾客便利,顾客沟通构成的专业承包企业4Cs市场营销策略集,用Uses Tree对该策略集进行了验证,能够达到提高企业合同数量、利润水平的目的。

运用SD枝向量行列式反馈环计算分析新兴产业协同创新障碍——以江西省绿色光源产业为例

通过组织管理系统动力学(SD)流率基本入树建模法建立江西省绿色光源产业协同创新系统的4棵入树,利用枝向量行列式反馈环算法计算出系统的18条反馈环,然后紧密联系江西省绿色光源产业协同创新增效缓慢的问题,对全部反馈环逐条进行关键因果链分析,揭示产生制约绿色光源产业协同创新增效缓慢问题的16条关键因果链,基于关键因果链所指问题的共性,将16条关键因果链分成4类,再基于4类关键因果链生成系统发展的4条管理对策,为破解江西省绿色光源产业创新增效缓慢的问题提供决策依据。

系统思维在工程经济的工程造价问题上的应用

针对当前工程经济的工程造价常见重大问题,通过将复杂系统思维应用于工程经济的工程造价问题,剖析了导致造价超支及工程经济失败的系统行为,根据工程经验及专家分析,列出工程造价问题的各诱发因素,建立了工程造价流程模型及因果反馈环,对各种因素及其作用影响进行研判分析,并提出了解决办法。

动态计算模型在组织行为学研究中的应用

动态计算模型是用数学语言进行理论描述的规范表达,能够有效地解释理论与实证结果的冲突,整合和发展理论,非常适合研究复杂的、非线性的、非递归的组织行为问题,但目前在组织行为学研究中的应用有限。本研究对基于主体的建模、系统动力学模型和元胞自动机模型等主要动态计算模型进行综述,对已有引入动态计算模型的组织行为学研究主题、研究问题的类型及动态计算模型的实施等内容进行复杂网络分析及内容综述,并指出动态计算模型能够帮助研究者开拓新的研究领域、改变组织行为研究的模式、继承和发展已有研究成果,形成动态计算模型在组织行为学研究领域的应用手册。

道路运输系统分析及发展对策研究

分析道路运输系统的构成及各子系统之间的关系。运用系统动力学的研究方法,分析了道路运输系统与其主要外部影响因素之间的关系,研究了道路运输与社会经济、道路运输与其它运输方式、道路运输与科技进步、道路运输与环境、道路运输与安全、道路运输与运价之间的因果反馈环,并在此基础上有针对性地对道路运输的发展提出了相应的对策和建议。

系统运行全部反馈环关键因果链分析法——以转型期火力发电系统实践为例

本文新建了系统运行全部反馈环关键因果链分析法,此方法紧密联系系统实际,首先用逐层法建立前期流率基本入树模型,建立系统的(反馈网络)流图模型;接着,用枝向量行列式反馈环计算方法计算出系统的全部反馈环;然后,又紧密联系系统发展中的实际问题,对全部反馈环逐条进行反馈环的因果链分析,揭示产生问题的不协调的全部制约因果链,以及促进核心因果链,建立关键因果链集合,生成管理对策,并促进对策实施.实践证明,系统运行全部反馈环分析法是一个有效的系统分析新方法.

综合运输系统通道功能结构的系统分析与研究

本文分析了综合运输系统通道的构成及各系统之间的关系并运用系统科学的研究方法,对综合运输系统通道的功能结构加以深入分析。本文界定了运输通道的划分,并且阐述了综合运输系统通道与各主要外部影响因素的关系。研究了综合运输系统通道与社会经济、科技进步、供需成本之间的因果反馈环,并在此基础上,从通道内各种运输方式相互协调、竞争的角度分析综合运输系统通道的功能结构。

基于枝向量行列式算法的高校教学信息化系统反馈分析

在建立9棵简化流率基本入树模型的基础上,运用SD枝向量行列式算法进行了系统反馈环计算,并运用关键因果链分析对策生成法,对全部反馈环进行结构、极性、关键因果链分析及分类,生成7大类共15条关键因果链,最后根据全部关键作用因果链揭示的主要问题,生成了7条对策,以期为提升高校教学信息化水平组织管理对策的制定与实施提供参考依据。

节水型社会是解决水危机的必然选择

从系统动力学的正因果反馈环的思路出发,提出节水是解决水危机的良方,制度建设是建设节水型社会的核心,及"政府调控,准市场配置和广泛参与"是节水型社会的运行机制。

Molecular Cloning and Expression of Carotenogenic Genes in Yellowish and Mutant Whitish Loquat (Eriobotrya japonica) Fruits

ObjectiveThe study aimed to explore the factors regulating carotenoid accumulation in flesh color. MethodA loquat mutation （red-or orange-fleshed plant emerged a bud mutation of white-flesh in trunk） was used as material; HPLC analysis of β-carotene content was conducted. ResultThe β-carotene concentration in the flesh of wild and mutant types was 60.9 and 4.6 μg/g fresh weight, respectively. According to the conserved regions of genes from rose family genome, carotenogenic gene fragments in wild and mutant types were obtained. No nucleotide variation of the carotenogenic gene fragments was observed between wild and mutant genome. Real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction （Q-PCR） was compared and one carotenogenic gene, β-ring hydroxylase （HYB） were considerably suppressed in mature mutant loquat fruits compared with that in wild. The other six carotenogenic genes were also expressed but the expression patterns appeared to be not correlated with the amount of β-carotene concentration in wild loquat flesh. ConclusionThe mutant whitish loquat lacks the ability to synthesize β-carotene because of the transcriptional down-regulation of carotenogenic gene HYB.

Purification Effects of Aquatic Vegetations on Lake Wetland Water Environment and Analysis of the Influencing Factors in Hongze Lake

[Objective] To study the purification effect of plant community on wetland water environment in Hongze Lake, and to provide references to the ecological restoration of this area. [Methed] The typical lakeside zone of Hongze Lake Wetland National Nature Reserve was taken as the study area. Through the field survey based on environmental characteristics of aquatic areas and non-aquatic areas, combined with laboratory test, the content changes of nutrients （N and P）, COD （chemical oxygen demand） and SD （transparency） levels in the water body of lake wetland were measured; the purification effect of the lake wetland ecosystem in the growth process of aquatic vegetation was quantitatively analyzed, and possible influ- encing factors were discussed. [Result] Aquatic vegetation could remove the TN, TP, COD, Chla in wetland water environment and had obvious effects on the changes of SD content. Competition between aquatic plants can inhibit the growth of algae and relieve the eutrophication of water body. [Conclusion] This study provided theoretical basis for ecological restoration and enhancement of self-purification capability in the lakeside zone of Hongze Lake.

Community Characteristics of Wild Fruit Forests Along Elevation Gradients and the Relationships Between the Wild Fruit Forests and Environments in the Keguqin Mountain Region ofⅠii

In this paper,the quantitative relationship between the wild fruit communities and direct environmental factors is discussed on the basis of detailed data on landscape scale habitats obtained through field vegetation investigation.The results from TWINSPAN and DCCA showed that:1) In the distribution sections of the wild fruit forest in the Keguqin Mountain region,the basic patterns characteristic of the different habitats are due to topographic factors,nutrients and moisture conditions;2) The elevation affected the most basic differentiation of plant communities in the study area,indicating that the elevation condition was the most important factor restricting the distribution of the wild fruit communities in the study area;3) The close relationship between the moisture content in the upper soil layer and the elevation reflected the influence of moisture conditions on both wild fruit and herb-layer communities;4) Nutrient differences not only indicated that the habitat conditions were different in themselves but also showed that the present nutrient conditions of the habitats were seriously affected by human activities.In summary,under complicated mountainous topographic conditions,the habitat conditions for the communities differed very significantly,and the combination of elevation,soil moisture content,total nitrogen,slope aspect,and pH value influenced and controlled the formation of community distribution patterns in the study area.

试析教育活动的复杂性

教育活动的复杂性最集中地体现为活动过程和结果的不确定性,这是由于它涉及到多方面的可变因素和动态生成的活动过程。我们可以对动态的教育活动作精心的事先计划,并对活动过程作适当的引导,却不能精确地控制它。在了解教育活动复杂性的基础上,需要进一步探讨如何正确地研究它和利用它,以达成更好的教育结果。

An Integrated Approach to Oscillation Propagation Identification and Source Locating in Process Multi-loop Systems

An integrated method for identifying the propagation of multi-loop process oscillations and their source location is proposed in this paper. Oscillatory process loop variables are automatically selected based on the component-related ratio index and a mixing matrix, both of which are obtained in data preprocessing by spectral independent component analysis. The complex causality among oscillatory process variables is then revealed by Granger causality test and is visualized in the form of causality diagram. The simplification of causal connectivity in the diagram is performed according to the understanding of process knowledge and the final simplest causality diagram, which represents the main oscillation propagation paths, is achieved by the automated cutting-off thresh-old search, with which less significant causality pathways are filtered out. The source of the oscillation disturbance can be identified intuitively through the final causality diagram. Both simulated and real plant data tests are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method.

逆向因果关系:哲学与物理的反思

逆向因果关系问题可以说是二十世纪因果哲学中最棘手的一个问题,特别是近五十年来,关于这一问题的哲学与物理讨论涉及一连串相互冲突的分析。在持续至今的这场争论中,许多哲学家越来越倾向接受逆向因果关系,即便是那些主张其不可能的学者也承认他们的观点是建立在有争议的哲学基础之上的,认为有必要提供更为可靠的中性论据。伴随时间对称量子力学表述的发展,物理学家也在重新审视量子因果相关的深层本性。量子事件的因果时间序也许不是一成不变的,而是象位置、动量一样服从量子不确定性。

The causal sequence investigation of the ring current ion-flux increasing and the magnetotail ion injection during a major storm

Comprehensive records are available in ENA data of ring current activity recorded by the NUADU instrument aboard TC-2 on 15 May, 2005 during a major magnetic storm （which incorporated a series of substorms）. Ion fluxes at 4-min temporal resolution derived from ENA data in the energy ranges 50-81 and 81-158 keV are compared with in situ particle fluxes measured by the LANL-SOPA instruments aboard LANL-01, LANL-02, LANL-97, and LANL-84 （a series of geostationary satellites that encircle the equatorial plane at -6.6 RE）. Also, magnetic fields measured simultaneously by the magetometers aboard GOES-10 and GOES-12 （which are also geostationary satellites） are compared with the particle data. It is demonstrated that ion fluxes in the ring current were enhanced during geomagnetic field tailward stretching in the growth phases of substorms rather than after Earthward directed dipolarization events. This observation, which challenges the existing concept that ring current particles are injected Earthward from the magnetotail following dipolarization events, requires further investigation using a large number of magnetic storm events.