中国证券市场结构实证分析

在我国理论界始终追随着证券市场结构的调整和演进 ,不断地对证券市场结构进行研究。但是迄今为止 ,对证券市场结构的研究没有能够深入发掘经济的内涵因素对证券市场结构的影响 ,也没有一套分析证券市场结构的完整的理论体系。本文通过吸收发展经济学的研究成果 ,试图建立一套衡量我国证券市场结构的指标 ,特别是衡量证券市场交易工具的指标 ,以期能促进我国证券市场的结构的不断完善。

Study on the causes and countermeasures for the dislocation of industrial structure in Three Gorges Region

In this paper, the dislocation of industrial structure refers to the inconsisency benveen employment structure and output structure in three industrles. Dnring the past over ten years, with the development of the Three Gorges regional social and economic, the industrial structure has optimized and upgraded constantly. However, for kinds of reasons, employment structure transference has lagged far behind output structure transference. In This paper, we try to analyze the causes of dislocation of the Three Gorges Regional industrial structure in analytical method of dislocation of industrial structure, and put forward the fundamental measures to optimize industrial stracture and promote sustainable development of the regional economy.

Trends and Regional Variations in Carbon Productivity across China

This paper utilizes the Theil and decoupling indices to analyze variation in carbon productivity as well as the factors that influence regional carbon productivity in China and proposes carbon emission reduction countermeasures. The authors conclude that most provinces exhibit year-on-year rising carbon productivity, a trend which decreases moving from east to western China. When applied to carbon productivity, the Theil index presents distinct regional differences. Moreover, the regional variance in carbon productivity is consistently reduced in eastern China and becomes smaller in central China. The difference, however, grows in western China. Carbon productivity grows with the highest speed in central China and the lowest speed in western China. Overall variation in carbon productivity mainly arises from intra-regional difference, whereas inter-regional difference mainly contributed by eastern China. In recent years; both the decoupling index, a dynamic value equal to the rate of change rate in carbon emissions divided by the rate of change in GDP during a given period of time, and carbon productivity vary in different economic development stages. Even if under the same decoupling state, carbon productivity remains different in three regions, i.e., that of the eastern region is higher than the other two regions .

Recalculating the Significance of Secondary and Tertiary Industries for Industrial Restructuring： Truth and Myth

By analyzing the efficiency, supply and demand of the three industries, and the foreign trade of developed countries, this paper argues： the ever-increasing proportion of the tertiary industry in developed countries has not yetproved that tertiary industry is the direction of industrial advance nor the tertiary industry is superior over the secondary industry. By estimating China＇s industrial structure with PPP-based industrial data, this paper argues that the proportion of China＇s secondary industry in its GDP is not as high as expected. China will still rely on its secondary industry for further growth because China＇s labor-intensive industries still possess the most comparative advantage and global competitiveness.

Static Model Classification Status： Taking Into Account Emerging External Factors

Analysis of the problem of predicting bankruptcy shows that foreign and domestic models included only internal factors of enterprises. But the same indicators of internal factors in the rapidly changing external environment can lead to bankruptcy, and not in others. External factors are the most dangerous, because the possible influence on them is minimal and the impact of their implementation can be devastating. This paper focuses on the same factors to assess the impact of the macroeconomic indicators （extemal factors） on the parameters of static models predicting a local approximation of the crisis at the plant. To accomplish the purpose, a Spark set of 100 companies was compiled, including 50 companies which officially declared bankruptcy in the period of 2000-2009 and 50 stable operating companies with a random sample of the same time period. External factors were extracted from the Joint Economic and Social Data Archive1 The author compared two data sets： （1） microeconomic indicators--money to the total liabilities, retained earnings to total assets, net profit to revenue, Earnings Before Interest and Taxes （EBIT） to assets, net income to equity, net profit to total liabilities, current liabilities to total assets, the totality of short-term and long-term loans to total assets, current assets to current liabilities, assets to revenue, equity to total assets, and current assets to revenue; and （2） external factors--index of real gross domestic product （GDP）, industrial production index, the index of real cash incomes, an index of real investments, consumer price index, the refinancing rate, unemployment rate, the price of electricity, gas prices, oil price, gas price, dollar to ruble, ruble euro Standard ＆ Poor （S＆P） index, the Russian Trading System （RTS） index, and region. The aim of the comparison results paging classes ＂insolvent＂ and ＂non-bankrupt＂ is achieved using two methods： classification and discrimination. In both methods, computational procedures are realized with the use of algorithms linear regression, artificial neural network, and genetic algorithm. In the 2-m model, data set includes both internal and external factors. The results showed that the inclusion of only the microeconomic indicators, excluding external factors, impedes models about two times.

The Economic Effect of Mineral Resources Exploitation in Bijie Prefecture in Guizhou

The exploitation of mineral resources plays an important role in promoting national economic development. Mining is an essential component of China's industrial economy. Using grey correlation method to analyze the correlative effect of mineral resources exploitation to relevant industries, using national income method to calculate the pulling effect of mineral resources exploitation to economic growth and using graphs as well as tables to analyze the income distribution effect, the article obtains active economic effect of mineral resources development in Bijie, Guizhou. Moreover, from the view of resources-cored effect, the article analyzes negative effects such as single industrial structure brought by mineral resource development. Through analysis, we find that mineral resources exploitation to some extent brings active effects including gross domestic product growth, local financial revenue growth and relevant industries development; however, its negative effects should not be ignored. The negative effect can be lightened by diversifying industrial structure and prolonging industrial chain.

The Driving Forces of CO2 Emission in China： 2002-2007

This paper provides a computation on both the China＇s aggregate CO2 emission volume and the emission of each sector over the period of 2002-2007, based on the input-output analysis. Further analysis is also given on the various determinants of the change in the emission volume, with the aid of structural decomposition analysis （SDA） based on a residual-free method. Based on the input-output table of China in 2002 and 2007, the merge of sectors and the adjustment of price change have been made during the study. The emissions of carbon dioxide in China increased from 2,887.3 million ton to 5,664.6 million ton during 2002-2007. The average rate of increase is 13.3%, faster than the average rate of gross domestic product （GDP） growth 11.6% slightly. According to the process of SDA, the changes in emission are analyzed in terms of four different factors. Among the four factors studied in the paper, it is found that the change of emission intensity and structure of demand are the main reason of the decrease of emission, while production technology and scale effect increase the emission volume. The paper also finds that although the direct emission intensity decreased during the study period, the total emission intensity increased with the annual rate of 3.8%, which reflects the result of energy policy is not equal in different sectors.

Principal Features of Building Social Accounts Matrix and Improving Statistical Database for Eco-countries

With common borders of the population, total area, and GDP （PPP-based） of Economic Cooperation Organization （ECO） member states are estimated as 416 million persons, 7.9 million m2, and US$2.7 trillion respectively （2010 data）. Although heterogeneous in the extent, there is economic development, overall, with serious energy and transport-transit relations among countries that is reflected in growing trade turnover year-by-year. However, there are still rather unused resources and capacity in such areas of cooperation among countries as exchange of energy, transport services, agricultural and industrial goods, use of opportunities for tourism, promoting investment and innovation processes and other areas. Certainly, maximum and optimal use of these resources calls for availability of analytical means capable of accounting for relations both within member states and among them. The implementation of computable general equilibrium （CGE） modeling in each member state would thus be of great significance in resolution of these problems both in terms of accounting for input-output linkages within the countries as well as enabling impact of main trading partners and goods and services among countries. The analysis carried out indicates that there are a number of problems in application of CGE model in most of the member states. As such, input-output tables are not compiled in some countries, while in others despite the fact that these tables are compiled, there are no attempts to build the model, yet in other countries, even if the CGE model is implemented, there are difficulties in taking into account the real results in the face of serious problems related to improving national accounts system database. Summarizing these problems, it is possible to conclude that to ensure the application of a CGE model,there is a great need to work out procedures of compilation of a social accounts matrix （SAM） that lies on the basis of this model, for which the relevant statistics of a member state must be improved. Considering the above-mentioned, the presented research, makes procedures and proposals on compilation of SAM, improves statistical data for researching the extent of application of CGE Model in ECO member states, and identifies the degree of availability and organization of relevant data to develop input-output tables and respective SAM.

The ＂Overissuance of Currency＂ Statement Lacks Scientific Evidence

The ＂overissuance of currency＂ statement has been prevalent in China＇s economics and finance sector for many years, but it is an unscientific argument. Its theoretical basis is that GDP corresponds to currency issued by the central bank but overlooks the fact that what money in circulation really corresponds to is the aggregate price of traded goods （including commodities, labor and financial products）. It also overlooks how fast money is circulated and the production and operation costs incorporated in commodities. Practically, this statement ignores the fact that the remainder of M2-MO in China is made up of various deposits whose direct function is substantially d^fferent Jbom that of currency. The underlying reason for China＇s huge sum of various deposits in M2 is that the proportion of consumption in GDP is decreasing and the investment rate is lower than the savings rate. It is natural for the M2 money supply to outnumber GDP in China. In essence, China＇s CPI growth is the result of price spikes rather than inflation. Accordingly, the major solution should be a combination offinancial policies and administrative measures rather than monetary policies.

A Study of the Awareness Level of Takaful Products Among Micro Enterprises in Malaysia

The small- and medium-sized enterprises （SMEs） play a vital role in the development of the Malaysian economy through its contribution of 32% of the country＇s growth domestic product （GDP）. However, the recent global financial crisis has exposed these enterprises to plausible risks that have resulted in some businesses being shuttered. Such predicament shows how crucial it is for SMEs to be prepared with some form of protection or Takaful to mitigate impending risks. The purpose of this study is to examine the extent to which micro enterprises are aware of Takaful and the benefits of its products. The study was conducted on respondents who fall into micro enterprise category located in Johor, Malaysia, and the research process involves a case study method which is in-depth interviews. The results of the current study provide an insight into how Takaful is regarded among SMEs and the need for these enterprises to be protected.

A Study of the Link Between the Tourism Industry and the GDP in the ECO Countries

The present study aims at exploring the causal relationship between tourism industry and GDP in the economic cooperation organization （ECO） countries for the period of 2000-2010. To this end, the causal relationship between the two variables was examined using panel data and Granger standard causality test. The results demonstrate a unidirectional causality from GDP to the number of tourists coming to the ECO countries, it is also concluded that a rise in the country＇s GDP provides necessary conditions for investment on all sectors of the economy including the tourism sector. In such conditions, if the country＇s economic priorities comprise tourism development, then tourists will start visiting the country and the industry will flourish. Thus, policy-makers should focus on the increasing GDP if they want to increase the tourists＇ influx.

The impact of financial sector development on the economic growth of emerging countries： An empirical study for E-7 countries

Globalization, financial liberalization, financial integration, financial sector, and economic growth have been significant issues for many researchers. The studies have investigated the effects of the above issues to the economic growth of countries both theoretically and empirically. Since there has been conducted an enormous body of work, each of them may be grouped and studied separately. This paper focuses on the impact of financial sector development to economic growth and empirically studies the potential effect on the emerging E-7 countries, consisting of Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, the Russian Federation, and Turkey. The study employs panel regression methodology and the data set for modeling Gross Domestic Product （GDP） comprises annual data over 2001-2007, using basic variables which resemble financial sector development, namely market capitalization of listed companies （stock market capitalization）, bank capital to asset ratio, stocks traded, total debt service, foreign direct investments, portfolio investments, real interest rates, and claims on private sector. The analysis indicates that the GDP may be modeled using the above stated macroeconomic variables with considerably high explanatory power, except for the real interest rates and bank capital to asset ratios.