Hue-Saturation-Intensity (HSI) color model, a psychologically appealing color model, was employed to visualize uncertainty represented by relative prediction error based on the case of spatial prediction of pH of to...Hue-Saturation-Intensity (HSI) color model, a psychologically appealing color model, was employed to visualize uncertainty represented by relative prediction error based on the case of spatial prediction of pH of topsoil in the peri-urban Beijing. A two-dimensional legend was designed to accompany the visualization-vertical axis (hues) for visualizing the predicted values and horizontal axis (whiteness) for visualizing the prediction error. Moreover, different ways of visualizing uncertainty were briefly reviewed in this paper. This case study indicated that visualization of both predictions and prediction uncertainty offered a possibility to enhance visual exploration of the data uncertainty and to compare different prediction methods or predictions of totally different variables. The whitish region of the visualization map can be simply interpreted as unsatisfactory prediction results, where may need additional samples or more suitable prediction models for a better prediction results.展开更多
AIM:To analyze the performance value of high risk factors in population-based colorectal cancer(CRC) screening in China.METHODS:We compared the performance value of the immunochemical fecal occult blood test(iFOBT) an...AIM:To analyze the performance value of high risk factors in population-based colorectal cancer(CRC) screening in China.METHODS:We compared the performance value of the immunochemical fecal occult blood test(iFOBT) and other high risk factors questionnaire in a population sample of 13 214 community residents who completed both the iFOBT and questionnaire investigation.Patients with either a positive iFOBT and/or questionnaire were regarded as a high risk population and those eligible were asked to undergo colonoscopy.RESULTS:The iFOBT had the highest positive predictive value and negative predictive value in screening for advanced neoplasia.The iFOBT had the highest sensitivity,lowest number of extra false positive results associated with the detection of one extra abnormality for screening advanced neoplasias and adenomas.A history of chronic cholecystitis or cholecystectomy,chronic appendicitis or appendectomy,and chronic diarrhea also had a higher sensitivity than a history of adenomatous polyps in screening for advanced neoplasias and adenomas.The sensitivity of a history of chronic cholecystitis or cholecystectomy was highest among the 10 high risk factors in screening for nonadenomatous polyps.A history of chronic appendicitis or appendectomy,chronic constipation,chronic diarrhea,mucous and bloody stool,CRC in first degree relatives,malignant tumor and a positive iFOBT also had higher sensitivities than a history of adenomas polyps in screening for non-adenomatous polyps.Except for a history of malignant tumor in screening for non-adenomatous polyps,the gain in sensitivity was associated with an increase in extra false positive results associated with the detection of one extra abnormality.CONCLUSION:The iFOBT may be the best marker for screening for advanced neoplasias and adenomas.Some unique high risk factors may play an important role in CRC screening in China.展开更多
China has set the goal for its CO2 emissions to peak around 2030, which is not only a strategic decision coordinating domestic sustainable development and global climate change mitigation but also an overarching targe...China has set the goal for its CO2 emissions to peak around 2030, which is not only a strategic decision coordinating domestic sustainable development and global climate change mitigation but also an overarching target and a key point of action for China's resource conservation, environmental protection, shift in economic development patterns, and CO2 emission reduction to avoid climate change. The development stage where China maps out the CO2 emission peak target is earlier than that of the developed countries. It is a necessity that the non-fossil energy supplies be able to meet all the increased energy demand for achieving CO2 emission peaking. Given that China's potential GDP annual increasing rate will be more than 4%, and China's total energy demand will continue to increase by approximately 1.0%--1.5% annually around 2030, new and renewable energies will need to increase by 6%-8% annually to meet the desired CO2 emission peak. The share of new and renewable energies in China's total primary energy supply will be approximately 20% by 2030. At that time, the energy consumption elasticity will decrease to around 0.3, and the annual decrease in the rate of CO2 intensity will also be higher than 4% to ensure the sustained growth of GDE To achieve the CO2 emission peaking target and substantially promote the low-carbon deve!opment transformation, China needs to actively promote an energy production and consumption revolution, the innovation of advanced energy technologies, the reform of the energy regulatory system and pricing mechanism, and especially the construction of a national carbon emission cap and trade system.展开更多
The environmental impact caused by local people (ecological footprint of consumption, EFc) and the actual environmental impact that the ecosystem burdens (ecological footprint of production, EFp) in West Jilin Pro...The environmental impact caused by local people (ecological footprint of consumption, EFc) and the actual environmental impact that the ecosystem burdens (ecological footprint of production, EFp) in West Jilin Province, Northeast China from 1986 to 2006 were evaluated by using ecological footprint (EF) method. And the major driving forces of EFc and EFp were analyzed by STIRPAT model. Both EFc and EFp showed increasing trends in 1986-2006, accompanied by decreasing ecological deficits but expanding ecological overshoots. Population (P), GDP per capita (A1), quadratic term of GDP per capita (A2), urbanization (Tα1), and quadratic term of urbanization (Ta2) were important influencing factors of EFc, among which Tα2 and Tα1 were the most dominate driving forces of EFc. A1, A2 and Tα2 were important influencing factors of EFp, among which A2 and A1 were the most dominate driving forces of EFp. In 1986-2006, the classical Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis did not exist between A2 and EF (both EFc and EFp), but did between Tα2 and EF. The results indicate that enhancing the urbanization process and diversifying economic sources is one of the most effective ways to reduce the environmental impact of West Jilin Province. Moreover, importance should be attached to improve the eco-efficiency of resource exploitation and consumption.展开更多
Water-soluble rare earth elements (WSREEs) of four typical soil profiles in China were determined by using a high-resolution inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer. Results showed that the contents of WSREEs dec...Water-soluble rare earth elements (WSREEs) of four typical soil profiles in China were determined by using a high-resolution inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer. Results showed that the contents of WSREEs decreased from upper layer to lower layer of soils in the southern part of China with a high rainfall and low pH but increased for soils in the northern part of China with a low rainfall and relatively higher pH. Contents of WSREEs in soils were lower than 100 μg kg-1 in most casest and varied greatly with both different soils and different layers of the same profile. The highest content was 2816.3 μg kg-1 but the lowest was 17.6 μg kg-1 only. The content of individual rare earth iement (REE) in the soil solution also varied greatly with the highest one ranging from 8.4 to 1373 μg kg-1 for Ce and the lowest one from 0.05to 4.48 μg kg-1 for Lu. The sum of WSREEs in the first soil layers ranged from 121.5 to 345.6 μg kg-1.Great variations existed among ratios of REEs extracted with water to the total REEs of soils, ranging from 0.02×10-3 to 13.2×10-3. But as the upper layer was considered, the ratio showed only a small difference,ranging from 0.79×10-3 to 1.69×10-3.展开更多
Using the daily maximum and minimum temperature dataset from 128 stations from 1960 to 2004 in Northwest China,daily extreme high temperature(EHT)and extreme low temperature(ELT)thresholds were deter-mined by centesim...Using the daily maximum and minimum temperature dataset from 128 stations from 1960 to 2004 in Northwest China,daily extreme high temperature(EHT)and extreme low temperature(ELT)thresholds were deter-mined by centesimal method for different stations at first,then yearly EHT and ELT events were counted up in differ-ent stations,and the characteristics of their spatio-temporal distribution were diagnosed at last.The study drew follow-ing conclusions:1)The consistent anomaly distribution characteristic was the most important mode of the EHT and ELT events in Northwest China.2)The spatial distribution of the EHT and ELT events can be divided into five sub-regions,namely,the north of Qinghai and west of Gansu,the north of Xinjiang,the south of Xinjiang,the east of Northwest China and the south of Qinghai.3)The EHT events showed remarkable increasing trend in all of five sub-regions,but only in the north of Qinghai and west of Gansu area,sudden change phenomenon occurred;the ELT events showed decreasing trend in all of five sub-regions,and sudden change phenomenon occurred in Northwest China except for south of Qinghai.4)In all of five sub-regions the EHT events showed remarkable 12-14yr period os-cillation,and the ELT event showed significant 13-15yr and 7-8yr period oscillation.5)The EHT and ELT events displayed remarkable positive and negative responses to regional warming of Northwest China respectively.展开更多
There are many defects in researches on the relationship of the regional financial development (FD) and economic growth of China, such as simply assuming the causality direction, not highlighting financial institution...There are many defects in researches on the relationship of the regional financial development (FD) and economic growth of China, such as simply assuming the causality direction, not highlighting financial institution, using incomplete financial indicator, etc. This article, taking Suzhou City of Jiangsu Province, China as a case, builds a simple model to study the level of FD from three aspects of financial scale, structure and institution. Three original indicators of PRIVY (private investment/aggregate investment), DEPTH (aggregate loan/GDP) and FDIVG (FDI/GDP) are used to construct the FD economic indicator through Principal Component Analysis approach. Then we use Granger method to analyze the relationship between the FD and the economic growth of Suzhou. Empirical test results show that the FD of Suzhou is the Granger reason of economic growth, while economic growth is not the reason for FD, because the relationship between the FD and the economic growth of Suzhou is just in the ″supply-leading″ period. In terms of Suzhou experiences, the local government should strengthen the protection of private investment, improve the institutional environment, and establish the reasonable financial structure. So we can concluded that FD could play a great role in promoting economic growth at the economy takeoff stage.展开更多
Debris flows in Jiangjia Ravine in Yunnan province, China are not only triggered by intense storms but also by short-duration and low-intensity rainfalls. This reflects the significance of antecedent rainfall. This pa...Debris flows in Jiangjia Ravine in Yunnan province, China are not only triggered by intense storms but also by short-duration and low-intensity rainfalls. This reflects the significance of antecedent rainfall. This paper tries to find the debris flow- triggering threshold by considering antecedent rainfall through a case study in Jiangjia Ravine. From 23 debris flow events, the I-D (Intensity-Duration) threshold was found, which is very dose to the line of 95th percentile regression line of rainfall events, representing that 95% of rainfalls can potentially induce debris flows and reflects the limitation of I-D threshold application in this area. Taking into account the effect of antecedent rainfall, the debris flowtriggering threshold for rainfall quantity and intensity is statistically and empirically derived. The relationships can be used in debris flow warning system as key thresholds. Coupling with the rainfall characteristics in this area, new thresholds are proposed as triggering and warning thresholds.展开更多
The main purpose of this study is to give evaluation of ecological services of Jilin Province, Northeast China. To take this value into decision-making and GDP accounting system is considered to be one of the economic...The main purpose of this study is to give evaluation of ecological services of Jilin Province, Northeast China. To take this value into decision-making and GDP accounting system is considered to be one of the economic solutions for ecological problems. The evaluation is based on the methods proposed by COSTANZA et al., and some modifications about unit value of forest and cropland system were made according to the real characters of ecosystem, climate, natural conditions etc., in Jilin Province. Total value of ecosystem services is about 554.404x10(9) yuan(RMB)/a, which is about 4.9 times of GDP of the corresponding period. The results of this study could be used as a fundamental work for the construction of ecological province, which was carried out from 2001, and could provide ecological information for decision-making. Furthermore, the necessities for the further studies on the evaluation of ecological services and natural capital were discussed.展开更多
The small hydropower(SHP) will be less competitive in the absence of environmental value.The lack of information has become an important obstacle challenging decision-makers in resource-use choices.This paper is an ap...The small hydropower(SHP) will be less competitive in the absence of environmental value.The lack of information has become an important obstacle challenging decision-makers in resource-use choices.This paper is an application of contingent valuation method(CVM) in rural China to estimate the willingness-to-pay(WTP) for environmental services provided by exiting hydropower station.Using the single-bounded and dichotomouschoice CVM,the ecological value of Tongjiqiao Reservoir(TJQR) is estimated,and the annual mean WTPs of single-bounded and double-bounded CVM estimation are 141.05 and 219.52 Yuan(RMB)/a,respectively.The 95% confidence interval of annual WTP on an average is 118.47,166.79 Yuan(RMB)/a and 204.41,236.22(Yuan RMB)/a,respectively.In contrast,double-bounded model could obtain much more information of WTP of the investigated,thus reducing the confidence interval of estimation,and enhancing the estimation accuracy of the WTP.According to the estimated mean WTP of the double-bounded CVM,the total ecosystem service value of the TJQR is 15.54 million Yuan(RMB).Compared with the conventional electricity of fossil power and large hydropower,the SHP will be less competitive in the absence of non-market value,ignoring that the environmental impacts of existing SHP will undermine the healthy development of clean energy sector.展开更多
In light of the practical need for research to inform policy in Beijing,this study evaluates the economic cost of the impact of PM 10 pollution in Beijing from 2001 to 2006,taking health as the main impact,and mortali...In light of the practical need for research to inform policy in Beijing,this study evaluates the economic cost of the impact of PM 10 pollution in Beijing from 2001 to 2006,taking health as the main impact,and mortality as the main outcome.Based on the literature review,this study adopts relatively conservative parameters as the basis for calculating the health impacts.It concludes that nearly 30%of mortality among registered residents above age 30 in Beijing can be attributed to PM 10 pollution,and that the economic cost equals 0.8%-1.2%of the city's GDP over the same period.This is lower than the results of previous studies,but still high enough to warrant a commitment to solve the city's air pollution problem.展开更多
Ecosystem services valuation seeks to increase the social relevance of ecosystem characteristics, the underlying biological mechanisms that support services, by making the contribution of ecosystems to human well-bein...Ecosystem services valuation seeks to increase the social relevance of ecosystem characteristics, the underlying biological mechanisms that support services, by making the contribution of ecosystems to human well-being explicit. Economic valuation can help management by clarifying the full range of benefits and costs of proposed management actions. In the past two decades, economic valuation of wetland ecosystem services has become one of the most significant scientific priorities for wetland protection. In this paper, we provide an overview of ecosystem services, and summarize the main interdisciplinary approaches to measure and value wetland ecosystem services. We identified four main methodological gaps preventing progress on wetland valuation of ecosystem services in China, which are: 1) confusion on terminology like intermediate and final ecosystem services, 2) lack of ecological production functions to link ecosystem characteristics to final ecosystem services, 3) static valuation making it difficult to evaluate the trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services, and 4) lack of clear guidance on relating ecological compensation programs to conservation targets. Overcoming these gaps is important to inform wetland compensation mechanisms and conservation policies. We propose future research on wetland ecosystem services in China should be focused on: 1) defining final ecosystem services based on beneficiary preferences and underlying biophysical mechanisms, 2) establishing wetland monitoring programs at specific sites to collect data on final ecosystem service indicators and ecosystem characteristic metrics to create ecological production functions for economic valuation and rescaling techniques, and 3) incorporating wetland ecosystem service values into decision-making processes to inform wetland management.展开更多
Wetlands play an important ecological role and provide many functions for people, yet wetlands are cur- rently decreasing and deteriorating. The ability to calculate an economic value for the loss of wetlands is becom...Wetlands play an important ecological role and provide many functions for people, yet wetlands are cur- rently decreasing and deteriorating. The ability to calculate an economic value for the loss of wetlands is becoming in- creasingly important for policy makers. In this study, remote sensing, field investigations, department visits, and other methods were used to survey wetland types, assess wetland area changes, and calculate wetland economic value. Mar- ket value loss and ecological ftmction value loss, caused by reduction of wetland area and environmental pollution were calculated using commonly accepted methods of market valuation, ecological valuation, environmental protection investment cost analysis, and outcome parameters. According to market value loss and ecological function value loss, preliminarily fund allocation for wetland and ecological compensation was calculated. This will provide an important reference for future Yellow River Delta eco-compensation studies.展开更多
Due to high intensity agricultural exploitation since the middle of the 20 th century, farmland gullies have become a pervasive form of water erosion in Northeast China. Yet few researches are concentrated on how topo...Due to high intensity agricultural exploitation since the middle of the 20 th century, farmland gullies have become a pervasive form of water erosion in Northeast China. Yet few researches are concentrated on how topography and land use affect long-term gully development in this region. In this study, gully distribution in a village with an area of 24.2 km^2 in the central Mollisols area of Northeast China in different times were compared by Aerial photography(1968), Quickbird image(2009) and field survey, and factors affecting gully development including land use and topography were analyzed. The results showed that the total gully number decreased from 104 to 69, while occupying area rose from 34.8 ha to 78.4 ha from 1968 to 2009. Fundamental gully distribution had been formed by 1968 as most of 2009′s gullies were evolved from 1968′s gullies′ merge and width expansion process, and new gullies those initiated after 1968 occupied only 7% of total gully area in 2009. Gully area increasing ratio in grassland was the highest and that in forestland was the lowest. The threshold catchment area between simple and complex gully development was around 15 ha to 25 ha. This threshold value sets apart catchment areas that will develop simple or complex gullies in areas with similar environmental conditions. Gully control measurements were urgent because if appropriate gully control implements would not be applied, present gully erosion crisis could be doubled within 50 years.展开更多
Little information is available on biogenic elements(carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus and sulfur) and the ecological stoichiometric characteristics of plants in coastal wetlands. To investigate the contents of carbon, nit...Little information is available on biogenic elements(carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus and sulfur) and the ecological stoichiometric characteristics of plants in coastal wetlands. To investigate the contents of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus and sulfur of plants, and their ecological stoichiometric characteristics in the Yellow(Huanghe) River Delta, plant samples were collected from two typical salt marshes(Suaeda salsa and Phragmites australis wetlands) during the period of from August to October in 2007, and the ratios of C/N, C/P, N/P, C/N/P and C/N/P/S were calculated. Results showed that during the studying period, plant C, N and P were lower than the global average values, and plant N and P were lower than the China's average values. Leaf C and S in Suaeda salsa were significantly lower than those in Phragmites australis(P < 0.05), and leaf N and P in Suaeda salsa and Phragmites australis showed no significant differences(P > 0.05). Average C/N ratios were 23.75 in leaf, 73.36 in stem, 65.67 in root of Suaeda salsa, and 33.77 in leaf, 121.68 in stem, 97.13 in root of Phragmites australis. Average C/N ratios of Suaeda salsa and Phragmites australis were all great than 25, indicating the salt marsh in the Yellow River Delta is an N limitation system. Average C/P ratios were 276.78 in leaf, 709.28 in stem and 1031.32 in root of Suaeda salsa, and 536.94 in leaf, 768.13 in stem and 875.22 in root of Phragmites australis. The average N/P ratios of Suaeda salsa were 12.92 in leaf, 10.77 in stem and 10.91 in root, and the average N/P ratios of Phragmites australis were 16.40 in leaf, 7.40 in stem and 6.92 in root, indicating the Suaeda salsa wetlands were N limited and Phragmites australis wetlands were N limited in August and P limited in October in 2007. The average C/N, C/P and C/N/P ratios in Suaeda salsa and Pragmites australis were higher than the global average values, indicating the lower quality of organic matter provided by wetland plants in the Yellow River delta.展开更多
Value is a criterion which can help people to distinguish good and bad, beauty and ugliness, fight and wrong and true and false. Value varies from different counties, which is the main cause of the conflict and misund...Value is a criterion which can help people to distinguish good and bad, beauty and ugliness, fight and wrong and true and false. Value varies from different counties, which is the main cause of the conflict and misunderstanding in communication between China and western countries. It is first introduced in this paper about how these differences are formed and then explain them in several ways. It is of great significance to know and learn the cultural differences in cross-cultural communication.展开更多
This paper examines how capital account liberalization (CAL) affects foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. Authors use a dynamic panel model encompassing 14 Middle East countries over the period from 1985 to 20...This paper examines how capital account liberalization (CAL) affects foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. Authors use a dynamic panel model encompassing 14 Middle East countries over the period from 1985 to 2009. The findings suggest that countries that are able to reap the benefits of the capital openness policy satisfy certain threshold conditions regarding the level of financial development and institutional quality. Thus to promote FDI, governments in this region should develop a set of policies that not only focus on financial openness, but also on the improvement of the financial system and legal institutions.展开更多
Wave fields of the South China Sea (SCS) from 1976 to 2005 were simulated using WAVEWATCH III by inputting high-resolution reanalysis wind field datasets assimilated from several meteorological data sources. Compari...Wave fields of the South China Sea (SCS) from 1976 to 2005 were simulated using WAVEWATCH III by inputting high-resolution reanalysis wind field datasets assimilated from several meteorological data sources. Comparisons of wave heights between WAVEWATCH III and TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter and buoy data show a good agreement. Our results show seasonal variation of wave direction as follows: 1. During the summer monsoon (April-September), waves from south occur from April through September in the southern SCS region, which prevail taking about 40% of the time; 2. During the winter monsoon (December-March), waves from northeast prevail throughout the SCS for 56% of the period; 3. The dominant wave direction in SCS is NE. The seasonal variation of wave height Hs in SCS shows that in spring, Hs〉l m in the central SCS region and is less than 1 m in other areas. In summer, Hs is higher than in spring. During September- November, influenced by tropical cyclones, Hs is mostly higher than 1 m. East of Hainan Island, Hs〉2 m. In winter, Hs reaches its maximum value influenced by the north-east monsoon, and heights over 2 m are found over a large part of SCS. Finally, we calculated the extreme wave parameters in SCS and found that the extreme wind speed and wave height for the 100-year return period for SCS peaked at 45 m/s and 19 m, respectively, SE of Hainan Island and decreased from north to south.展开更多
基金Under the auspices of Knowledge Innovation Frontier Project of Institute of Soil Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.ISSASIP0716 )the National Nature Science Foundation of China ( No.40701070,40571065)
文摘Hue-Saturation-Intensity (HSI) color model, a psychologically appealing color model, was employed to visualize uncertainty represented by relative prediction error based on the case of spatial prediction of pH of topsoil in the peri-urban Beijing. A two-dimensional legend was designed to accompany the visualization-vertical axis (hues) for visualizing the predicted values and horizontal axis (whiteness) for visualizing the prediction error. Moreover, different ways of visualizing uncertainty were briefly reviewed in this paper. This case study indicated that visualization of both predictions and prediction uncertainty offered a possibility to enhance visual exploration of the data uncertainty and to compare different prediction methods or predictions of totally different variables. The whitish region of the visualization map can be simply interpreted as unsatisfactory prediction results, where may need additional samples or more suitable prediction models for a better prediction results.
基金Supported by 11th 5-Year Key Programs for Science and Technology Development of China,No.2006BAI02A08
文摘AIM:To analyze the performance value of high risk factors in population-based colorectal cancer(CRC) screening in China.METHODS:We compared the performance value of the immunochemical fecal occult blood test(iFOBT) and other high risk factors questionnaire in a population sample of 13 214 community residents who completed both the iFOBT and questionnaire investigation.Patients with either a positive iFOBT and/or questionnaire were regarded as a high risk population and those eligible were asked to undergo colonoscopy.RESULTS:The iFOBT had the highest positive predictive value and negative predictive value in screening for advanced neoplasia.The iFOBT had the highest sensitivity,lowest number of extra false positive results associated with the detection of one extra abnormality for screening advanced neoplasias and adenomas.A history of chronic cholecystitis or cholecystectomy,chronic appendicitis or appendectomy,and chronic diarrhea also had a higher sensitivity than a history of adenomatous polyps in screening for advanced neoplasias and adenomas.The sensitivity of a history of chronic cholecystitis or cholecystectomy was highest among the 10 high risk factors in screening for nonadenomatous polyps.A history of chronic appendicitis or appendectomy,chronic constipation,chronic diarrhea,mucous and bloody stool,CRC in first degree relatives,malignant tumor and a positive iFOBT also had higher sensitivities than a history of adenomas polyps in screening for non-adenomatous polyps.Except for a history of malignant tumor in screening for non-adenomatous polyps,the gain in sensitivity was associated with an increase in extra false positive results associated with the detection of one extra abnormality.CONCLUSION:The iFOBT may be the best marker for screening for advanced neoplasias and adenomas.Some unique high risk factors may play an important role in CRC screening in China.
基金supported by Major Program of Humanities and Social Science Base,Ministry of Education(No.10JJD630011)
文摘China has set the goal for its CO2 emissions to peak around 2030, which is not only a strategic decision coordinating domestic sustainable development and global climate change mitigation but also an overarching target and a key point of action for China's resource conservation, environmental protection, shift in economic development patterns, and CO2 emission reduction to avoid climate change. The development stage where China maps out the CO2 emission peak target is earlier than that of the developed countries. It is a necessity that the non-fossil energy supplies be able to meet all the increased energy demand for achieving CO2 emission peaking. Given that China's potential GDP annual increasing rate will be more than 4%, and China's total energy demand will continue to increase by approximately 1.0%--1.5% annually around 2030, new and renewable energies will need to increase by 6%-8% annually to meet the desired CO2 emission peak. The share of new and renewable energies in China's total primary energy supply will be approximately 20% by 2030. At that time, the energy consumption elasticity will decrease to around 0.3, and the annual decrease in the rate of CO2 intensity will also be higher than 4% to ensure the sustained growth of GDE To achieve the CO2 emission peaking target and substantially promote the low-carbon deve!opment transformation, China needs to actively promote an energy production and consumption revolution, the innovation of advanced energy technologies, the reform of the energy regulatory system and pricing mechanism, and especially the construction of a national carbon emission cap and trade system.
基金Under the auspices of Major State Basic Research Development Program of China(No.2004CB418507)
文摘The environmental impact caused by local people (ecological footprint of consumption, EFc) and the actual environmental impact that the ecosystem burdens (ecological footprint of production, EFp) in West Jilin Province, Northeast China from 1986 to 2006 were evaluated by using ecological footprint (EF) method. And the major driving forces of EFc and EFp were analyzed by STIRPAT model. Both EFc and EFp showed increasing trends in 1986-2006, accompanied by decreasing ecological deficits but expanding ecological overshoots. Population (P), GDP per capita (A1), quadratic term of GDP per capita (A2), urbanization (Tα1), and quadratic term of urbanization (Ta2) were important influencing factors of EFc, among which Tα2 and Tα1 were the most dominate driving forces of EFc. A1, A2 and Tα2 were important influencing factors of EFp, among which A2 and A1 were the most dominate driving forces of EFp. In 1986-2006, the classical Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis did not exist between A2 and EF (both EFc and EFp), but did between Tα2 and EF. The results indicate that enhancing the urbanization process and diversifying economic sources is one of the most effective ways to reduce the environmental impact of West Jilin Province. Moreover, importance should be attached to improve the eco-efficiency of resource exploitation and consumption.
文摘Water-soluble rare earth elements (WSREEs) of four typical soil profiles in China were determined by using a high-resolution inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer. Results showed that the contents of WSREEs decreased from upper layer to lower layer of soils in the southern part of China with a high rainfall and low pH but increased for soils in the northern part of China with a low rainfall and relatively higher pH. Contents of WSREEs in soils were lower than 100 μg kg-1 in most casest and varied greatly with both different soils and different layers of the same profile. The highest content was 2816.3 μg kg-1 but the lowest was 17.6 μg kg-1 only. The content of individual rare earth iement (REE) in the soil solution also varied greatly with the highest one ranging from 8.4 to 1373 μg kg-1 for Ce and the lowest one from 0.05to 4.48 μg kg-1 for Lu. The sum of WSREEs in the first soil layers ranged from 121.5 to 345.6 μg kg-1.Great variations existed among ratios of REEs extracted with water to the total REEs of soils, ranging from 0.02×10-3 to 13.2×10-3. But as the upper layer was considered, the ratio showed only a small difference,ranging from 0.79×10-3 to 1.69×10-3.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40375032,No. 40675043)
文摘Using the daily maximum and minimum temperature dataset from 128 stations from 1960 to 2004 in Northwest China,daily extreme high temperature(EHT)and extreme low temperature(ELT)thresholds were deter-mined by centesimal method for different stations at first,then yearly EHT and ELT events were counted up in differ-ent stations,and the characteristics of their spatio-temporal distribution were diagnosed at last.The study drew follow-ing conclusions:1)The consistent anomaly distribution characteristic was the most important mode of the EHT and ELT events in Northwest China.2)The spatial distribution of the EHT and ELT events can be divided into five sub-regions,namely,the north of Qinghai and west of Gansu,the north of Xinjiang,the south of Xinjiang,the east of Northwest China and the south of Qinghai.3)The EHT events showed remarkable increasing trend in all of five sub-regions,but only in the north of Qinghai and west of Gansu area,sudden change phenomenon occurred;the ELT events showed decreasing trend in all of five sub-regions,and sudden change phenomenon occurred in Northwest China except for south of Qinghai.4)In all of five sub-regions the EHT events showed remarkable 12-14yr period os-cillation,and the ELT event showed significant 13-15yr and 7-8yr period oscillation.5)The EHT and ELT events displayed remarkable positive and negative responses to regional warming of Northwest China respectively.
基金Under the auspices of China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (No. 20070420271, 20018801012)
文摘There are many defects in researches on the relationship of the regional financial development (FD) and economic growth of China, such as simply assuming the causality direction, not highlighting financial institution, using incomplete financial indicator, etc. This article, taking Suzhou City of Jiangsu Province, China as a case, builds a simple model to study the level of FD from three aspects of financial scale, structure and institution. Three original indicators of PRIVY (private investment/aggregate investment), DEPTH (aggregate loan/GDP) and FDIVG (FDI/GDP) are used to construct the FD economic indicator through Principal Component Analysis approach. Then we use Granger method to analyze the relationship between the FD and the economic growth of Suzhou. Empirical test results show that the FD of Suzhou is the Granger reason of economic growth, while economic growth is not the reason for FD, because the relationship between the FD and the economic growth of Suzhou is just in the ″supply-leading″ period. In terms of Suzhou experiences, the local government should strengthen the protection of private investment, improve the institutional environment, and establish the reasonable financial structure. So we can concluded that FD could play a great role in promoting economic growth at the economy takeoff stage.
基金support from the Key Deployment Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.KZZD-EW-05-01)National Key Technologies R&D Program of China(Grant No.2012BAK10B04)data support from the Dongchuan Debris Flow Observation Station
文摘Debris flows in Jiangjia Ravine in Yunnan province, China are not only triggered by intense storms but also by short-duration and low-intensity rainfalls. This reflects the significance of antecedent rainfall. This paper tries to find the debris flow- triggering threshold by considering antecedent rainfall through a case study in Jiangjia Ravine. From 23 debris flow events, the I-D (Intensity-Duration) threshold was found, which is very dose to the line of 95th percentile regression line of rainfall events, representing that 95% of rainfalls can potentially induce debris flows and reflects the limitation of I-D threshold application in this area. Taking into account the effect of antecedent rainfall, the debris flowtriggering threshold for rainfall quantity and intensity is statistically and empirically derived. The relationships can be used in debris flow warning system as key thresholds. Coupling with the rainfall characteristics in this area, new thresholds are proposed as triggering and warning thresholds.
文摘The main purpose of this study is to give evaluation of ecological services of Jilin Province, Northeast China. To take this value into decision-making and GDP accounting system is considered to be one of the economic solutions for ecological problems. The evaluation is based on the methods proposed by COSTANZA et al., and some modifications about unit value of forest and cropland system were made according to the real characters of ecosystem, climate, natural conditions etc., in Jilin Province. Total value of ecosystem services is about 554.404x10(9) yuan(RMB)/a, which is about 4.9 times of GDP of the corresponding period. The results of this study could be used as a fundamental work for the construction of ecological province, which was carried out from 2001, and could provide ecological information for decision-making. Furthermore, the necessities for the further studies on the evaluation of ecological services and natural capital were discussed.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China in 2008 (Grant No. 70873108)Zhejiang Provincial Natural Scien8ce Foundation of China (Grant No. Z607126)+1 种基金the key research project funded by a national key research base for humanities and social sciences under the guidance of the Ministry of Education (Grant No. 2007JJD630014)Programfor New Century Excellent Talents in University in 2008
文摘The small hydropower(SHP) will be less competitive in the absence of environmental value.The lack of information has become an important obstacle challenging decision-makers in resource-use choices.This paper is an application of contingent valuation method(CVM) in rural China to estimate the willingness-to-pay(WTP) for environmental services provided by exiting hydropower station.Using the single-bounded and dichotomouschoice CVM,the ecological value of Tongjiqiao Reservoir(TJQR) is estimated,and the annual mean WTPs of single-bounded and double-bounded CVM estimation are 141.05 and 219.52 Yuan(RMB)/a,respectively.The 95% confidence interval of annual WTP on an average is 118.47,166.79 Yuan(RMB)/a and 204.41,236.22(Yuan RMB)/a,respectively.In contrast,double-bounded model could obtain much more information of WTP of the investigated,thus reducing the confidence interval of estimation,and enhancing the estimation accuracy of the WTP.According to the estimated mean WTP of the double-bounded CVM,the total ecosystem service value of the TJQR is 15.54 million Yuan(RMB).Compared with the conventional electricity of fossil power and large hydropower,the SHP will be less competitive in the absence of non-market value,ignoring that the environmental impacts of existing SHP will undermine the healthy development of clean energy sector.
基金Supported by the Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education(Grant no.20070001049):pricing policy for resources products incidence of welfare impactBeijing Science and Technology Commission D09040903670905:Study on the Regional Air Pollution Control Strategy and Policy
文摘In light of the practical need for research to inform policy in Beijing,this study evaluates the economic cost of the impact of PM 10 pollution in Beijing from 2001 to 2006,taking health as the main impact,and mortality as the main outcome.Based on the literature review,this study adopts relatively conservative parameters as the basis for calculating the health impacts.It concludes that nearly 30%of mortality among registered residents above age 30 in Beijing can be attributed to PM 10 pollution,and that the economic cost equals 0.8%-1.2%of the city's GDP over the same period.This is lower than the results of previous studies,but still high enough to warrant a commitment to solve the city's air pollution problem.
基金Under the auspices of Forestry Nonprofit Industry Scientific Research Special Project(No.201204201)National Key Technology Research and Development Program of China(No.2011BAJ07B05)
文摘Ecosystem services valuation seeks to increase the social relevance of ecosystem characteristics, the underlying biological mechanisms that support services, by making the contribution of ecosystems to human well-being explicit. Economic valuation can help management by clarifying the full range of benefits and costs of proposed management actions. In the past two decades, economic valuation of wetland ecosystem services has become one of the most significant scientific priorities for wetland protection. In this paper, we provide an overview of ecosystem services, and summarize the main interdisciplinary approaches to measure and value wetland ecosystem services. We identified four main methodological gaps preventing progress on wetland valuation of ecosystem services in China, which are: 1) confusion on terminology like intermediate and final ecosystem services, 2) lack of ecological production functions to link ecosystem characteristics to final ecosystem services, 3) static valuation making it difficult to evaluate the trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services, and 4) lack of clear guidance on relating ecological compensation programs to conservation targets. Overcoming these gaps is important to inform wetland compensation mechanisms and conservation policies. We propose future research on wetland ecosystem services in China should be focused on: 1) defining final ecosystem services based on beneficiary preferences and underlying biophysical mechanisms, 2) establishing wetland monitoring programs at specific sites to collect data on final ecosystem service indicators and ecosystem characteristic metrics to create ecological production functions for economic valuation and rescaling techniques, and 3) incorporating wetland ecosystem service values into decision-making processes to inform wetland management.
基金Under the auspices of Scientific and Technological Projects of Shandong Province (No. 2006GG2206019, 2007 GG30006002)National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.40901065)
文摘Wetlands play an important ecological role and provide many functions for people, yet wetlands are cur- rently decreasing and deteriorating. The ability to calculate an economic value for the loss of wetlands is becoming in- creasingly important for policy makers. In this study, remote sensing, field investigations, department visits, and other methods were used to survey wetland types, assess wetland area changes, and calculate wetland economic value. Mar- ket value loss and ecological ftmction value loss, caused by reduction of wetland area and environmental pollution were calculated using commonly accepted methods of market valuation, ecological valuation, environmental protection investment cost analysis, and outcome parameters. According to market value loss and ecological function value loss, preliminarily fund allocation for wetland and ecological compensation was calculated. This will provide an important reference for future Yellow River Delta eco-compensation studies.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41601289,41571264)
文摘Due to high intensity agricultural exploitation since the middle of the 20 th century, farmland gullies have become a pervasive form of water erosion in Northeast China. Yet few researches are concentrated on how topography and land use affect long-term gully development in this region. In this study, gully distribution in a village with an area of 24.2 km^2 in the central Mollisols area of Northeast China in different times were compared by Aerial photography(1968), Quickbird image(2009) and field survey, and factors affecting gully development including land use and topography were analyzed. The results showed that the total gully number decreased from 104 to 69, while occupying area rose from 34.8 ha to 78.4 ha from 1968 to 2009. Fundamental gully distribution had been formed by 1968 as most of 2009′s gullies were evolved from 1968′s gullies′ merge and width expansion process, and new gullies those initiated after 1968 occupied only 7% of total gully area in 2009. Gully area increasing ratio in grassland was the highest and that in forestland was the lowest. The threshold catchment area between simple and complex gully development was around 15 ha to 25 ha. This threshold value sets apart catchment areas that will develop simple or complex gullies in areas with similar environmental conditions. Gully control measurements were urgent because if appropriate gully control implements would not be applied, present gully erosion crisis could be doubled within 50 years.
基金Under the auspices of National Key R&D Program of China(No.2017YFC0505906)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51639001,51379012)Interdiscipline Research Funds of Beijing Normal University
文摘Little information is available on biogenic elements(carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus and sulfur) and the ecological stoichiometric characteristics of plants in coastal wetlands. To investigate the contents of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus and sulfur of plants, and their ecological stoichiometric characteristics in the Yellow(Huanghe) River Delta, plant samples were collected from two typical salt marshes(Suaeda salsa and Phragmites australis wetlands) during the period of from August to October in 2007, and the ratios of C/N, C/P, N/P, C/N/P and C/N/P/S were calculated. Results showed that during the studying period, plant C, N and P were lower than the global average values, and plant N and P were lower than the China's average values. Leaf C and S in Suaeda salsa were significantly lower than those in Phragmites australis(P < 0.05), and leaf N and P in Suaeda salsa and Phragmites australis showed no significant differences(P > 0.05). Average C/N ratios were 23.75 in leaf, 73.36 in stem, 65.67 in root of Suaeda salsa, and 33.77 in leaf, 121.68 in stem, 97.13 in root of Phragmites australis. Average C/N ratios of Suaeda salsa and Phragmites australis were all great than 25, indicating the salt marsh in the Yellow River Delta is an N limitation system. Average C/P ratios were 276.78 in leaf, 709.28 in stem and 1031.32 in root of Suaeda salsa, and 536.94 in leaf, 768.13 in stem and 875.22 in root of Phragmites australis. The average N/P ratios of Suaeda salsa were 12.92 in leaf, 10.77 in stem and 10.91 in root, and the average N/P ratios of Phragmites australis were 16.40 in leaf, 7.40 in stem and 6.92 in root, indicating the Suaeda salsa wetlands were N limited and Phragmites australis wetlands were N limited in August and P limited in October in 2007. The average C/N, C/P and C/N/P ratios in Suaeda salsa and Pragmites australis were higher than the global average values, indicating the lower quality of organic matter provided by wetland plants in the Yellow River delta.
文摘Value is a criterion which can help people to distinguish good and bad, beauty and ugliness, fight and wrong and true and false. Value varies from different counties, which is the main cause of the conflict and misunderstanding in communication between China and western countries. It is first introduced in this paper about how these differences are formed and then explain them in several ways. It is of great significance to know and learn the cultural differences in cross-cultural communication.
文摘This paper examines how capital account liberalization (CAL) affects foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. Authors use a dynamic panel model encompassing 14 Middle East countries over the period from 1985 to 2009. The findings suggest that countries that are able to reap the benefits of the capital openness policy satisfy certain threshold conditions regarding the level of financial development and institutional quality. Thus to promote FDI, governments in this region should develop a set of policies that not only focus on financial openness, but also on the improvement of the financial system and legal institutions.
基金Supported by the South China Sea Institute of Oceanology,Chinese Academy of Sciences
文摘Wave fields of the South China Sea (SCS) from 1976 to 2005 were simulated using WAVEWATCH III by inputting high-resolution reanalysis wind field datasets assimilated from several meteorological data sources. Comparisons of wave heights between WAVEWATCH III and TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter and buoy data show a good agreement. Our results show seasonal variation of wave direction as follows: 1. During the summer monsoon (April-September), waves from south occur from April through September in the southern SCS region, which prevail taking about 40% of the time; 2. During the winter monsoon (December-March), waves from northeast prevail throughout the SCS for 56% of the period; 3. The dominant wave direction in SCS is NE. The seasonal variation of wave height Hs in SCS shows that in spring, Hs〉l m in the central SCS region and is less than 1 m in other areas. In summer, Hs is higher than in spring. During September- November, influenced by tropical cyclones, Hs is mostly higher than 1 m. East of Hainan Island, Hs〉2 m. In winter, Hs reaches its maximum value influenced by the north-east monsoon, and heights over 2 m are found over a large part of SCS. Finally, we calculated the extreme wave parameters in SCS and found that the extreme wind speed and wave height for the 100-year return period for SCS peaked at 45 m/s and 19 m, respectively, SE of Hainan Island and decreased from north to south.