This paper uses the input-output tables from 2007 to estimate the exchangerate risk exposure of all 42 sectors of the Chinese economy. It then demonstrates a new quantitative approach for examining the differential im...This paper uses the input-output tables from 2007 to estimate the exchangerate risk exposure of all 42 sectors of the Chinese economy. It then demonstrates a new quantitative approach for examining the differential impacts of Renminbi appreciation on the export of finished goods and the import of intermediate inputs in each sector, and estimates the changes in profitability of each sector under different degrees of Renminbi appreciation. The results indicate that appreciation of the Renminbi will increase the profitability of 22 sectors, which are generally monopolistic, capital-intensive, and reliant on R＆D, and reduce the profitability of 20 sectors, which are generally competitive, labor-intensive, and less reliant on R＆D. This suggests that the degree and pace of Renminbi appreciation must be coordinated with industrial and employment policies in order to reduce exchange-rate risk exposure through trade restructuring, to improve economic structure, to promote competition and employment, and to maintain steady and sustainable economic growth.展开更多
文摘This paper uses the input-output tables from 2007 to estimate the exchangerate risk exposure of all 42 sectors of the Chinese economy. It then demonstrates a new quantitative approach for examining the differential impacts of Renminbi appreciation on the export of finished goods and the import of intermediate inputs in each sector, and estimates the changes in profitability of each sector under different degrees of Renminbi appreciation. The results indicate that appreciation of the Renminbi will increase the profitability of 22 sectors, which are generally monopolistic, capital-intensive, and reliant on R＆D, and reduce the profitability of 20 sectors, which are generally competitive, labor-intensive, and less reliant on R＆D. This suggests that the degree and pace of Renminbi appreciation must be coordinated with industrial and employment policies in order to reduce exchange-rate risk exposure through trade restructuring, to improve economic structure, to promote competition and employment, and to maintain steady and sustainable economic growth.
