Do Eurozone＇s countries converge or diverge over time？ In this paper, the issue of the Eurozone cohesion is analyzed, with emphasis on the North-South axis. The dynamics of 10 economic variables covered the general ...Do Eurozone＇s countries converge or diverge over time？ In this paper, the issue of the Eurozone cohesion is analyzed, with emphasis on the North-South axis. The dynamics of 10 economic variables covered the general performance （GDP, consumption）, price environment （prices and interest rates）, both public and private financial variables and competitiveness （real effective exchange rates, unit labor costs etc.）. The complex analysis of the data indicates that whereas in the most of analyzed variables neither convergence nor divergence can be identified, in the all important competitiveness area the long term divergence between the North and the South of the Eurozone is undeniable. Unless addressed, this dynamics may constitute significant, and perhaps ultimate, threats to the Eurozone cohesion and perhaps to its existence.展开更多
The essence of empirical test of Wagner characteristic in new public management countries＇ tax revenue is to test the influence of economic growth on tax growth since new public management movement. Under IMF statist...The essence of empirical test of Wagner characteristic in new public management countries＇ tax revenue is to test the influence of economic growth on tax growth since new public management movement. Under IMF statistical framework, by using E-G two-step method in co-integration test and Granger causality test and empirically testing of the gross tax revenue and classified tax revenue in Australian, Canada, France, America, Britain these five countries, we can find that most indicators in most countries do not confirm to Wagner＇ s law. With the growth of GDP, tax revenue as a percentage of GDP rises periodically but not permanently. This period can be called the validity period of Wagner＇ s law in financial scale.展开更多
Andersen and Jordan （1968） aimed to measure efficiency of monetary and fiscal actions on real GDP by employing a time-series model which was called as St. Louis Model afterwards. Although the model is performed in m...Andersen and Jordan （1968） aimed to measure efficiency of monetary and fiscal actions on real GDP by employing a time-series model which was called as St. Louis Model afterwards. Although the model is performed in many countries similarly, the results differ from each other in accordance with the economic structure of relevant country In this regard, the aim of this paper is to investigate the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies on real activity and to find out causal relationship among questioned variables using OLS and causality methodologies in Turkish economy over the period 1998：1-2010： IV. Empirical findings indicate that only monetary policy has a significant positive effect on economic activity in the short run, Nonetheless, neither monetary nor fiscal policy has significant impact on real output in the long run. Causality analysis shows that there exists a unidirectional causality running from real output and money stock to government expenditures. Moreover, not surprisingly, it is also found that crisis experiences of Turkey in sample period have highly adverse impact on real activity. Causality analysis suggests us considering government expenditures as explained variable instead of real output. Hence, it can be concluded that St. Louis Model total spending equation is not applicable for Turkish economy during 1998-2010 periods展开更多
Chaos theory is used to prove that erratic and chaotic fluctuations can indeed arise in completely deterministic models. Chaos theory reveals structure in aperiodic, dynamic systems. The number of nonlinear business c...Chaos theory is used to prove that erratic and chaotic fluctuations can indeed arise in completely deterministic models. Chaos theory reveals structure in aperiodic, dynamic systems. The number of nonlinear business cycle models use chaos theory to explain complex motion of the economy. Almost three years after the crisis, the G7 countries continue to be challenged with economic volatility. The global economy has slowed. Growth in the United States has weakened. In Europe, economic instability is generated by the financial and economic imbalances. Europe is gripped with financial strains from the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area periphery. How these G7 economies confront their fiscal challenges will profoundly affect their economic stability. The basic aim of this paper is to provide a relatively simple chaotic economic growth model that is capable of generating stable equilibria, cycles, or chaos. This paper looks in more detail at the GDP growth stability issues in each of the G7 countries in the period 1990-2012 （Retrieved from http：//www, imf.org）. A key hypothesis of this work is based on the idea that the coefficient π =[p（s_p-i-n/pb-p_mb_m）] plays a crucial role in explaining local stability of the gross domestic product growth, where, p---the coefficient of labour productivity; p.,--the coefficient of the marginal labour productivity, sp-private saving rate;i--investment rate; b-percent of the gross domestic product which belongs to budget deficit; bm-marginal budget deficit coefficient; n-net capital outflow rate.展开更多
The ＂overissuance of currency＂ statement has been prevalent in China＇s economics and finance sector for many years, but it is an unscientific argument. Its theoretical basis is that GDP corresponds to currency issu...The ＂overissuance of currency＂ statement has been prevalent in China＇s economics and finance sector for many years, but it is an unscientific argument. Its theoretical basis is that GDP corresponds to currency issued by the central bank but overlooks the fact that what money in circulation really corresponds to is the aggregate price of traded goods （including commodities, labor and financial products）. It also overlooks how fast money is circulated and the production and operation costs incorporated in commodities. Practically, this statement ignores the fact that the remainder of M2-MO in China is made up of various deposits whose direct function is substantially d^fferent Jbom that of currency. The underlying reason for China＇s huge sum of various deposits in M2 is that the proportion of consumption in GDP is decreasing and the investment rate is lower than the savings rate. It is natural for the M2 money supply to outnumber GDP in China. In essence, China＇s CPI growth is the result of price spikes rather than inflation. Accordingly, the major solution should be a combination offinancial policies and administrative measures rather than monetary policies.展开更多
文摘Do Eurozone＇s countries converge or diverge over time？ In this paper, the issue of the Eurozone cohesion is analyzed, with emphasis on the North-South axis. The dynamics of 10 economic variables covered the general performance （GDP, consumption）, price environment （prices and interest rates）, both public and private financial variables and competitiveness （real effective exchange rates, unit labor costs etc.）. The complex analysis of the data indicates that whereas in the most of analyzed variables neither convergence nor divergence can be identified, in the all important competitiveness area the long term divergence between the North and the South of the Eurozone is undeniable. Unless addressed, this dynamics may constitute significant, and perhaps ultimate, threats to the Eurozone cohesion and perhaps to its existence.
文摘The essence of empirical test of Wagner characteristic in new public management countries＇ tax revenue is to test the influence of economic growth on tax growth since new public management movement. Under IMF statistical framework, by using E-G two-step method in co-integration test and Granger causality test and empirically testing of the gross tax revenue and classified tax revenue in Australian, Canada, France, America, Britain these five countries, we can find that most indicators in most countries do not confirm to Wagner＇ s law. With the growth of GDP, tax revenue as a percentage of GDP rises periodically but not permanently. This period can be called the validity period of Wagner＇ s law in financial scale.
文摘Andersen and Jordan （1968） aimed to measure efficiency of monetary and fiscal actions on real GDP by employing a time-series model which was called as St. Louis Model afterwards. Although the model is performed in many countries similarly, the results differ from each other in accordance with the economic structure of relevant country In this regard, the aim of this paper is to investigate the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies on real activity and to find out causal relationship among questioned variables using OLS and causality methodologies in Turkish economy over the period 1998：1-2010： IV. Empirical findings indicate that only monetary policy has a significant positive effect on economic activity in the short run, Nonetheless, neither monetary nor fiscal policy has significant impact on real output in the long run. Causality analysis shows that there exists a unidirectional causality running from real output and money stock to government expenditures. Moreover, not surprisingly, it is also found that crisis experiences of Turkey in sample period have highly adverse impact on real activity. Causality analysis suggests us considering government expenditures as explained variable instead of real output. Hence, it can be concluded that St. Louis Model total spending equation is not applicable for Turkish economy during 1998-2010 periods
文摘Chaos theory is used to prove that erratic and chaotic fluctuations can indeed arise in completely deterministic models. Chaos theory reveals structure in aperiodic, dynamic systems. The number of nonlinear business cycle models use chaos theory to explain complex motion of the economy. Almost three years after the crisis, the G7 countries continue to be challenged with economic volatility. The global economy has slowed. Growth in the United States has weakened. In Europe, economic instability is generated by the financial and economic imbalances. Europe is gripped with financial strains from the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area periphery. How these G7 economies confront their fiscal challenges will profoundly affect their economic stability. The basic aim of this paper is to provide a relatively simple chaotic economic growth model that is capable of generating stable equilibria, cycles, or chaos. This paper looks in more detail at the GDP growth stability issues in each of the G7 countries in the period 1990-2012 （Retrieved from http：//www, imf.org）. A key hypothesis of this work is based on the idea that the coefficient π =[p（s_p-i-n/pb-p_mb_m）] plays a crucial role in explaining local stability of the gross domestic product growth, where, p---the coefficient of labour productivity; p.,--the coefficient of the marginal labour productivity, sp-private saving rate;i--investment rate; b-percent of the gross domestic product which belongs to budget deficit; bm-marginal budget deficit coefficient; n-net capital outflow rate.
文摘The ＂overissuance of currency＂ statement has been prevalent in China＇s economics and finance sector for many years, but it is an unscientific argument. Its theoretical basis is that GDP corresponds to currency issued by the central bank but overlooks the fact that what money in circulation really corresponds to is the aggregate price of traded goods （including commodities, labor and financial products）. It also overlooks how fast money is circulated and the production and operation costs incorporated in commodities. Practically, this statement ignores the fact that the remainder of M2-MO in China is made up of various deposits whose direct function is substantially d^fferent Jbom that of currency. The underlying reason for China＇s huge sum of various deposits in M2 is that the proportion of consumption in GDP is decreasing and the investment rate is lower than the savings rate. It is natural for the M2 money supply to outnumber GDP in China. In essence, China＇s CPI growth is the result of price spikes rather than inflation. Accordingly, the major solution should be a combination offinancial policies and administrative measures rather than monetary policies.
