长江流域作为我国重要的生态-经济发展地区,科学合理地调控土地利用变化对实现其生态、经济协调发展至关重要。基于斑块生成土地利用变化模拟(patch-generating land use simulation,PLUS)模型,综合考虑自然因素和社会经济因素,选取20...长江流域作为我国重要的生态-经济发展地区,科学合理地调控土地利用变化对实现其生态、经济协调发展至关重要。基于斑块生成土地利用变化模拟(patch-generating land use simulation,PLUS)模型,综合考虑自然因素和社会经济因素,选取20个驱动因子分析了长江流域1985—2020年35 a间土地利用时空变化格局及其驱动力,并设定惯性发展、耕地保护和生态优先3种情景,对2050年长江流域土地利用进行模拟分析,以满足流域不同发展目标导向下的国土空间优化配置。结果表明:1)长江流域主要土地利用类型为林地、耕地和草地,占流域面积的95%以上,1985—2020年,建设用地面积持续增长,耕地、草地面积不断减少;建设用地单一、土地利用动态度最高为13.29%,1995—2000年综合土地利用动态度最高达0.62%;2)PLUS模型对1985—2020年长江流域各类用地扩张驱动力分析均方根误差(root mean square error,RMSE)均低于0.15,模拟效果较好,其中建设用地扩张的最主要驱动因素为距乡镇距离与距火车站距离,以社会经济因素为主;3)PLUS模型在长江流域适用性强,不同时间步长、不同土地数量预测模型设定下,模型总体精度均高于92%,Kappa系数均高于0.88;4)3种情景下,建设用地扩张趋势依次为73.56%、7.37%、70.99%;耕地保护情景可有效约束建设用地扩张,生态优先情景可明显增加水域等生态用地。因此,落实耕地保护、生态优先政策以优化土地利用结构、提高土地利用效率对长江流域土地资源高效利用和生态环境的优化具有重要意义。展开更多
Human activities alter land use patterns and affect landscape sustainability. It is therefore very important to investigate the relationship between land use change and human activities. This study focuses on the dete...Human activities alter land use patterns and affect landscape sustainability. It is therefore very important to investigate the relationship between land use change and human activities. This study focuses on the detection of changing land use patterns in the Yanhe River Basin in northern Loess Plateau of China between 1995 and 2008. Landscape metrics were used to analyze the changing land use patterns and to explore the related anthropogenic driving forces. Results show that:1) Totally, 186 590 ha of croplands were converted into alternate land-use types (equivalent to 61.7% of the original cropland area). The majority of cropland areas were found to be converted into grassland and woodland areas (accounting for 55.9% and 4.9% respectively of the original cropland areas). 2) Both cropland and woodland demonstrated an increasing fragmentation tendency while grasslands showed a decreasing fragmentation tendency. 3) Multiple driving forces of land use change were thought to act together to changes in landscape metrics in the Yanhe River Basin. The anthropogenic driving forces were analyzed from four perspectives:ecological conservation policy, labor force transfer, industrial development, and rural settlement. The policy of the GfG (Grain for Green) project was the main driving factor which expedited the conversion from cropland to woodland and grassland. Industrial development was also found to affect land use change through the direct impact of economic activities such as oil exploration and agricultural production, or through indirect impacts such as the industrial structures readjustment. Labor force transfer from rural to urban areas was found to follow the industrial structure readjustment and further drove land use change from cropland to off-farm land use. Establishment of new tile-roofed houses instead of cave-type dwellings in rural settlements has helped to aggregate the original scattered land-use type of construction.展开更多
Urbanization has both direct and indirect impacts on land use change, and analyzing spatio-temporal characteristics of land use change is essential for understanding these impacts. By comparing Landsat TM images, this...Urbanization has both direct and indirect impacts on land use change, and analyzing spatio-temporal characteristics of land use change is essential for understanding these impacts. By comparing Landsat TM images, this paper examines the changes of land use structure and landscape patterns in Shanghai from 1990 to 2015. It finds that the city doubled in size, with the growth of isolated construction land being most significant among eight land use types. A land use change matrix was established and landscape indices were selected to evaluate the change of spatial structure in Shanghai. In order to identify the main driving forces of city expansion in Shanghai, this research ran partial least square regression models to assess the impact of 10 social-economic factors on land use change of Shanghai from 1990 to 2015. It then conducted bivariate correlation analysis to explore the drivers of change of various land use types: urban settlement, rural settlement and isolated construction land. Besides quantitative analysis, this paper analyzes the influence of policy-dimensional factors in land use change. It concludes with future potential research topics on land use change in a rapidly urbanizing context.展开更多
While urbanization has accelerated, the rural population in China has started decreasing in recent years. However, the expansion of rural settlement has not been sufficiently curbed. The questions of why this has happ...While urbanization has accelerated, the rural population in China has started decreasing in recent years. However, the expansion of rural settlement has not been sufficiently curbed. The questions of why this has happened and who has driven the land-use change(LUC) of rural settlement in China have aroused great interests among researchers. In this paper, it is suggested that population is not always a positive driving force for the LUC of rural settlement in China. Furthermore, socio-economic driving forces other than urbanization, population and industrialization are analyzed. On a national scale, the major driving forces are the per-capita rural housing area and the cultivated land area. On a regional scale, the main driving forces in the eastern China are the house-building capacity of rural households and the per-capita rural housing area; while in the central China, the main driving forces are rural housing investment, the proportion of primary industry employees in the rural working population, and the cultivated land area. For the western China, the main driving forces are rural register population and cultivated land area.展开更多
文摘长江流域作为我国重要的生态-经济发展地区,科学合理地调控土地利用变化对实现其生态、经济协调发展至关重要。基于斑块生成土地利用变化模拟(patch-generating land use simulation,PLUS)模型,综合考虑自然因素和社会经济因素,选取20个驱动因子分析了长江流域1985—2020年35 a间土地利用时空变化格局及其驱动力,并设定惯性发展、耕地保护和生态优先3种情景,对2050年长江流域土地利用进行模拟分析,以满足流域不同发展目标导向下的国土空间优化配置。结果表明:1)长江流域主要土地利用类型为林地、耕地和草地,占流域面积的95%以上,1985—2020年,建设用地面积持续增长,耕地、草地面积不断减少;建设用地单一、土地利用动态度最高为13.29%,1995—2000年综合土地利用动态度最高达0.62%;2)PLUS模型对1985—2020年长江流域各类用地扩张驱动力分析均方根误差(root mean square error,RMSE)均低于0.15,模拟效果较好,其中建设用地扩张的最主要驱动因素为距乡镇距离与距火车站距离,以社会经济因素为主;3)PLUS模型在长江流域适用性强,不同时间步长、不同土地数量预测模型设定下,模型总体精度均高于92%,Kappa系数均高于0.88;4)3种情景下,建设用地扩张趋势依次为73.56%、7.37%、70.99%;耕地保护情景可有效约束建设用地扩张,生态优先情景可明显增加水域等生态用地。因此,落实耕地保护、生态优先政策以优化土地利用结构、提高土地利用效率对长江流域土地资源高效利用和生态环境的优化具有重要意义。
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.40930528)State Forestry Administration of China(No.201004058)External Cooperation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.29GJHZ0948)
文摘Human activities alter land use patterns and affect landscape sustainability. It is therefore very important to investigate the relationship between land use change and human activities. This study focuses on the detection of changing land use patterns in the Yanhe River Basin in northern Loess Plateau of China between 1995 and 2008. Landscape metrics were used to analyze the changing land use patterns and to explore the related anthropogenic driving forces. Results show that:1) Totally, 186 590 ha of croplands were converted into alternate land-use types (equivalent to 61.7% of the original cropland area). The majority of cropland areas were found to be converted into grassland and woodland areas (accounting for 55.9% and 4.9% respectively of the original cropland areas). 2) Both cropland and woodland demonstrated an increasing fragmentation tendency while grasslands showed a decreasing fragmentation tendency. 3) Multiple driving forces of land use change were thought to act together to changes in landscape metrics in the Yanhe River Basin. The anthropogenic driving forces were analyzed from four perspectives:ecological conservation policy, labor force transfer, industrial development, and rural settlement. The policy of the GfG (Grain for Green) project was the main driving factor which expedited the conversion from cropland to woodland and grassland. Industrial development was also found to affect land use change through the direct impact of economic activities such as oil exploration and agricultural production, or through indirect impacts such as the industrial structures readjustment. Labor force transfer from rural to urban areas was found to follow the industrial structure readjustment and further drove land use change from cropland to off-farm land use. Establishment of new tile-roofed houses instead of cave-type dwellings in rural settlements has helped to aggregate the original scattered land-use type of construction.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41590844)
文摘Urbanization has both direct and indirect impacts on land use change, and analyzing spatio-temporal characteristics of land use change is essential for understanding these impacts. By comparing Landsat TM images, this paper examines the changes of land use structure and landscape patterns in Shanghai from 1990 to 2015. It finds that the city doubled in size, with the growth of isolated construction land being most significant among eight land use types. A land use change matrix was established and landscape indices were selected to evaluate the change of spatial structure in Shanghai. In order to identify the main driving forces of city expansion in Shanghai, this research ran partial least square regression models to assess the impact of 10 social-economic factors on land use change of Shanghai from 1990 to 2015. It then conducted bivariate correlation analysis to explore the drivers of change of various land use types: urban settlement, rural settlement and isolated construction land. Besides quantitative analysis, this paper analyzes the influence of policy-dimensional factors in land use change. It concludes with future potential research topics on land use change in a rapidly urbanizing context.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41001108)China Clean Development Mechanism Fund(No.2031202400003)
文摘While urbanization has accelerated, the rural population in China has started decreasing in recent years. However, the expansion of rural settlement has not been sufficiently curbed. The questions of why this has happened and who has driven the land-use change(LUC) of rural settlement in China have aroused great interests among researchers. In this paper, it is suggested that population is not always a positive driving force for the LUC of rural settlement in China. Furthermore, socio-economic driving forces other than urbanization, population and industrialization are analyzed. On a national scale, the major driving forces are the per-capita rural housing area and the cultivated land area. On a regional scale, the main driving forces in the eastern China are the house-building capacity of rural households and the per-capita rural housing area; while in the central China, the main driving forces are rural housing investment, the proportion of primary industry employees in the rural working population, and the cultivated land area. For the western China, the main driving forces are rural register population and cultivated land area.
