母亲的土地情[散文]

直到今天,已经93岁的母亲,仍在耕种着一份登记在她名下的菜地。她常说,这是她的最后一块田地了,趁还动得,要好好地服侍。我们做儿女的也知道,只要她一息尚存,就没法阻止她走向菜地的蹒跚步履。20多年前,我们曾尝试过让她放弃责任田。为此想尽了办法,找尽了理由,动用过亲戚,拜托过邻居,劝过,吵过,用丢人现眼之类的理由要挟过。

宁波市人民政府关于加快推进农村集体土地确权登记发证工作的通知

甬政发[2012]54号各县(市)区人民政府,市政府各部门、各直属单位:为贯彻落实十七届三中全会精神和《中共中央国务院关于加大统筹城乡发展力度进一步夯实农业农村发展基础的若干意见》(中发[2010]1号)有关要求,依法保护农村集体土地权利人的合法权益,有序推进农村土地管理制度改革。根据国土资源部、财政部。

Modelling Regional Land Change Scenarios to Assess Land Abandonment and Reforestation Dynamics in the Pyrenees(France)

Over the last decades and centuries,European mountain landscapes have experienced substantial transformations.Natural and anthropogenic LULC changes(land use and land cover changes), especially agro-pastoral activities,have directly influenced the spatial organization and composition of European mountain landscapes.For the past sixty years, natural reforestation has been occurring due to a decline in both agricultural production activities and rural population.Stakeholders, to better anticipate future changes,need spatially and temporally explicit models to identify areas at risk of land change and possible abandonment.This paper presents an integrated approach combining forecasting scenarios and a LULC changes simulation model to assess where LULC changes may occur in the Pyrenees Mountains,based on historical LULC trends and a range of future socio-economic drivers.The proposed methodologyconsiders local specificities of the Pyrenean valleys,sub-regional climate and topographical properties,and regional economic policies.Results indicate that some regions are projected to face strong abandonment, regardless of the scenario conditions.Overall, high rates of change are associated with administrative regions where land productivity is highly dependent on socio-economic drivers and climatic and environmental conditions limit intensive(agricultural and/or pastoral) production and profitability.The combination of the results for the four scenarios allows assessments of where encroachment(e.g.colonization by shrublands) and reforestation are the most probable.This assessment intends to provide insight into the potential future development of the Pyrenees to help identify areas that are the most sensitive to change and to guide decision makers to help their management decisions.

Simulation of Land-use Scenarios for Beijing Using CLUE-S and Markov Composite Models

This study investigated and simulated land use patterns in Beijing for the year 2000 and the year 2005 from the actual land use data for the year 1995 and the year 2000,respectively,by combining spatial land allocation simulation using the CLUE-S model,and numerical land demand prediction using the Markov model.The simulations for 2000 and 2005 were confirmed to be generally accurate using Kappa indices.Then the land-use scenarios for Beijing in 2015 were simulated assuming two modes of development:1) urban development following existing trends;and 2) under a strict farmland control.The simulations suggested that under either mode,urbanized areas would expand at the expense of land for other uses.This expansion was predicted to dominate the land-use conversions between 2005 and 2015,and was expected to be accompanied by an extensive loss of farmland.The key susceptible to land-use changes were found to be located at the central urban Beijing and the surrounding regions including Yanqing County,Changping District and Fangshan District.Also,the simulations predicted a considerable expansion of urban/suburban areas in the mountainous regions of Beijing,suggesting a need for priority monitoring and protection.

Analytical expressions for determining the stability of cohesionless soil slope under generalized seismic conditions

In recent major earthquakes, the researchers have found the need for consideration of vertical seismic acceleration for the stability analysis of the man-made and natural slopes. However, in most past studies, the performance of slopes has been assessed by accounting only the horizontal seismic component of the ground motion, without giving due weightage to the effect of vertical component. In the present study, analytical expressions are derived to determine the factor of safety, yield seismic coefficient and consequently the seismic displacement of cohesionless soil slope under combined horizontal and vertical components of the ground motion. The derivation uses the Newmark's sliding block approach, in which the soil slope with a planar failure surface within the framework of conventional pseudo-static analysis is assumed to follow the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion. The effects of vertical seismic coefficient on the stability of cohesionless slope have been studied through a set of graphical presentations for a specific range of soil parameters. It is observed that overlooking the effect of the vertical component of the ground motion on factor of safety and the displacement while designing the slope may be detrimental, resulting in the slope failure. The general expressions presented in this paper may be highly useful in the field of earthquake geotechnical engineering practice for designing the cohesionless soil slopes under combined horizontal and vertical seismic loads.

情系黄土地

我生在黄土地，长在黄土地，我爱着黄土地，恋着黄土地。黄土地给我生活营养，黄土地把我养育。黄土地是爹，黄土地是娘，

ROA of Real Estate Development in ZA

Although, there are numerous empirical studies that explore option pricing on vacant land, there is hardly such study based on a South African case study. Moreover, phenomena observed in certain countries are not always prevalent due to different economic circumstances. This case study explores option value emerging on vacant land due to office building in the Northern Suburbs of Johannesburg, South Africa （ZA） because land value ＂increased＂ in ＂price＂. Since late 1990s, Northern Suburbs are one of the most expensive areas of Johannesburg. Samuelson-McKean （1965） model is used to calculate option value on vacant land （Geltner ＆ Miller, 2001） and the model is used to estimate option values, first, when there are no costs, then when total costs are taken into account and lastly, when improvements are taken into account. The results are synonymous with option pricing theory （OPT） in sense that costs and land improvements increase option value; however, the impact of fixed costs on option value is debatable as fixed costs lead to an increase in option value while according to OPT they should not as fixed costs could easily be ＂hedged＂.

The Extent of Land Use Impact on Water Regime in the Vseminka Catchment

The paper deals with the impact of land use changes on water regime. An assessment was carried out in order to determine the extent to which the main components of the water balance on the experimental catchment Vseminka have been influenced by land use changes （region Vsetinske Hills, the Czech Republic）. For this reason, the water balance model WBCM-5 was implemented for the period of 30 years in a daily step, with particular focus on the simulation of the components of direct runoff and of subsurface water recharge. In the selected years of the period 1980-2009, major changes were made in land use and significant fluctuation of rainfall-runoff regimes were observed （e.g. dry year 1992, flood year 1997 and normal year 2009）. After WBCM-5 parameter calibration it was observed that some water balance components can change in relation to substantial land use changes, even up to dozens of percent in a balance-consideration, i.e. in daily, monthly and yearly or decadal values, specifically as far as the components of interception and also of direct runoff and of subsurface water recharge are concerned. However, a different situation appeared during the investigation of significant short-term rainfall-runoff processes. There were about seven real flood events during the same period on the same catchment which were analysed using the KINFIL-2 model （time step 0.5 hr）. Land use change, positive or negative scenarios, were also analysed during this period. As opposed to long-term water balance analyses, only a 10% difference in the hydrograph peak and volume was observed. In summary, the authors have shown that it is always important to distinguish a possible land use change impact on either long-term balance or short-term runoff. Otherwise, as often found in over simplified commentaries on flood events in the mass media, the actual impact of land use changes on water regime may be misunderstood.

Estimates of Variation in Chinese Terrestrial Carbon Storage Under an Environmental Conservation Policy Scenario for 2000-2025

Policies always have strong impacts on land-use and land-cover change （LUCC）,and thus indirectly affect the terrestrial carbon balance.In this paper,land use change from 2010 to 2025 in China was simulated with the Dynamics Land System （DLS） under an environmental conservation policy scenario,and the projected effect of this policy scenario on Chinese terrestrial carbon storage was evaluated.Under the simulation,forest coverage will increase by 23% while cropland and grassland will decrease by 37% and 11% respectively.Due to the large expansion of forest coverage,the forest carbon storage will have an accumulation of 66.0 Tg C y-1.This will take place mainly in central China in a band from the northeast to southwest.Grasslands,however,will be a carbon source of 5.7 Tg C y-1 in the same period as a result of the transformation of grassland to woodlands or deserts.As the carbon storage capacity of forest soil is considerably higher than that of grassland and cropland,such LUCC will eventually result in a soil carbon accumulation of 13.3 Tg C y-1.From 2000 to 2025,the carbon storage of Chinese terrestrial ecosystem is likely to increase by 1.8 Pg C,and thus the terrestrial ecosystem will be a carbon sink of 0.074 Pg C y-1,89.6% of which will result from an increase in forest carbon storage.

The Evolution Pattern and Simulation of Land Use in the Beijing Municipal Administrative Center(Tongzhou District)

Beijing Municipal Administrative Center(Beijing MC)in Tongzhou District has inherited the non-capital core functions of Beijing’s central urban area,and its rapid construction and development urgently require a scientific understanding of the pattern of land use evolution in the region.This paper analyzes the pattern of land use evolution in Tongzhou District over the past 40 years,from 1980 to 2020.According to the historical evolutionary characteristics of land use and urban development planning goals,combined with the driving factors of cultural tourism development,the Future Land-use Simulation(FLUS)model is used to simulate the spatial distribution of land use in Beijing MC(Tongzhou District)in 2035 under three scenarios of urbanization acceleration,deceleration and sustainable development.The results show three major trends.(1)Beijing MC(Tongzhou District)is dominated by urban development and construction.During the high-speed urbanization stage from 1980 to 2010,the urban expansion pattern of“along the Sixth Ring Road and along the Grand Canal”was formed.During the low-speed urbanization stage from 2010 to 2020,the land distribution was stable,and Tongzhou District formed a pattern of urban-rural differentiation and land intensification from northwest to southeast.As a typical area of Tongzhou District’s urbanization,Beijing MC has the same characteristics of the temporal and spatial evolution as Tongzhou as a whole.(2)By 2035,there are significant differences in land use among the three scenarios with respect to the magnitude of change and spatial distribution.The area and distribution of ecological land under the urban sustainable development scenario are optimal,which is conducive to the realization of sustainable urban development.In analyzing the degree of conformity with the three Beijing MC zoning plans,the prediction simulation under the sustainable development scenario is highly consistent with the land use of the“Beijing Municipal Administrative Center Regulatory Detailed Planning(Block Level)(2016–2035)”(hereinafter referred to as“Planning”)issued by the municipal government.However,there are certain deviations between the simulation predictions in the cultural tourism function area and the livable living scenery area and the corresponding“Planning”expectations.During the urban construction process,the internal ecological land area still needs to be increased.(3)Tongzhou District may lack a close connection between the urban and rural areas in the southeast.Potential risks such as the imbalance in the development of northern and southern townships require further attention in the development process.The prediction and simulation results of the model can provide certain data and methodological support for the construction of a harmonious and livable city in Beijing MC(Tongzhou District).