区域一体化快速发展背景下,如何系统谋划区域综合交通运输规划,使经济、土地/空间及交通与环境协调发展,是实现区域可持续发展亟需深入研究的课题。因此,本文统筹考虑经济、土地/空间及交通和环境要素的动态交互关系,提出大区域综合货...区域一体化快速发展背景下,如何系统谋划区域综合交通运输规划,使经济、土地/空间及交通与环境协调发展,是实现区域可持续发展亟需深入研究的课题。因此,本文统筹考虑经济、土地/空间及交通和环境要素的动态交互关系,提出大区域综合货运整体规划模型的设计与开发方法。利用PECAS(Production,Exchange and Consumption Allocation System)理论框架分析生产者、消费者、交换商品、土地(空间)和运输方式之间的交互关系,并通过PECAS的集计经济流表设计模型结构,构建相应的宏观经济预测、社会经济活动空间分配、空间开发以及交通运输需求预测这4个模块,模拟区域社会经济活动增长及其空间分布与土地/空间开发及综合交通需求时变等特征之间的互动耦合关系。在社会经济发展目标、土地空间和环境等约束条件下,通过构建空间经济模型和综合交通一体化网络分配模型,实现面向多货品和多方式的综合货运整体规划建模方法,以辅助区域产业布局、土地利用与综合交通系统的整体规划。本文以长江经济带为研究案例,基于相关数据构建相应的大区域综合货运整体规划模型,分析评估2012—2035年模型预测结果。结果显示,预测得到的综合交通年平均日货运量拟合优度超过85%,分担率误差低于1%,验证了本文建模方法的有效性。展开更多
The actual situation of the Tisza Valley traditionally used for land farming is basically determined by the consequences of the river regulation of the nineteenth century which aimed at the extension of the intensive ...The actual situation of the Tisza Valley traditionally used for land farming is basically determined by the consequences of the river regulation of the nineteenth century which aimed at the extension of the intensive agriculture, by the extreme water regime of alternating periods of flood showing a deteriorating trend and drought related to the climatic change; and by several environmental problems induced mainly by the land use. The objective of the article is to prove the regional advantages of a proposed technical solution to mitigate the flood risk with a special regard to the land cover. Hydrodynamic modeling results prove that the best technical solution is given by a combination of different strategies containing the inundation of deep floodplains-areas regularly covered by water before the river regulation works and, globally, by an important mitigation of flood damages, the costs of solution would be surely covered in the longterm. By means of its natural-resembling operation, the regular water cover would allow a multiple use of water, contributing to the solution of the simultaneously existing aridity problem, and, the development of the floodplain landscape management would help improve the ecological and the economical upgrading of the region.展开更多
文摘区域一体化快速发展背景下,如何系统谋划区域综合交通运输规划,使经济、土地/空间及交通与环境协调发展,是实现区域可持续发展亟需深入研究的课题。因此,本文统筹考虑经济、土地/空间及交通和环境要素的动态交互关系,提出大区域综合货运整体规划模型的设计与开发方法。利用PECAS(Production,Exchange and Consumption Allocation System)理论框架分析生产者、消费者、交换商品、土地(空间)和运输方式之间的交互关系,并通过PECAS的集计经济流表设计模型结构,构建相应的宏观经济预测、社会经济活动空间分配、空间开发以及交通运输需求预测这4个模块,模拟区域社会经济活动增长及其空间分布与土地/空间开发及综合交通需求时变等特征之间的互动耦合关系。在社会经济发展目标、土地空间和环境等约束条件下,通过构建空间经济模型和综合交通一体化网络分配模型,实现面向多货品和多方式的综合货运整体规划建模方法,以辅助区域产业布局、土地利用与综合交通系统的整体规划。本文以长江经济带为研究案例,基于相关数据构建相应的大区域综合货运整体规划模型,分析评估2012—2035年模型预测结果。结果显示,预测得到的综合交通年平均日货运量拟合优度超过85%,分担率误差低于1%,验证了本文建模方法的有效性。
文摘The actual situation of the Tisza Valley traditionally used for land farming is basically determined by the consequences of the river regulation of the nineteenth century which aimed at the extension of the intensive agriculture, by the extreme water regime of alternating periods of flood showing a deteriorating trend and drought related to the climatic change; and by several environmental problems induced mainly by the land use. The objective of the article is to prove the regional advantages of a proposed technical solution to mitigate the flood risk with a special regard to the land cover. Hydrodynamic modeling results prove that the best technical solution is given by a combination of different strategies containing the inundation of deep floodplains-areas regularly covered by water before the river regulation works and, globally, by an important mitigation of flood damages, the costs of solution would be surely covered in the longterm. By means of its natural-resembling operation, the regular water cover would allow a multiple use of water, contributing to the solution of the simultaneously existing aridity problem, and, the development of the floodplain landscape management would help improve the ecological and the economical upgrading of the region.
