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基于窗口粒子滤波算法的土壤水分同化及滑坡灾害预警
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作者 林雨珊 邵伟 +3 位作者 杨宗佶 董建志 倪钧钧 林齐根 《水利水电技术(中英文)》 北大核心 2024年第7期19-31,共13页
【目的】在水-力耦合计算中,土壤水力参数通过量化土壤含水量与孔隙水压力的转换关系,决定有效应力及边坡稳定性的计算结果。研究稳健、可靠的数据同化方法,降低土壤水力参数的不确定性,提升土壤水动力模拟的准确性,对降雨型滑坡灾害预... 【目的】在水-力耦合计算中,土壤水力参数通过量化土壤含水量与孔隙水压力的转换关系,决定有效应力及边坡稳定性的计算结果。研究稳健、可靠的数据同化方法,降低土壤水力参数的不确定性,提升土壤水动力模拟的准确性,对降雨型滑坡灾害预警具有重要意义。【方法】通过虚拟算例和实例应用,提出将窗口粒子滤波数据同化方法(简称PBS算法)与渗流-边坡稳定分析模型结合,通过同化土壤含水量数据,达到反演土壤水力参数、模拟土壤孔隙水压力以及预测边坡稳定性的目标。通过虚拟算例,证实了当PBS算法设定大于2 d的时间窗口,以及大于80个的粒子(参数样本)时,能够获得较为准确的模拟结果。实例应用选取四川省都江堰市银洞子沟滑坡堆积体,将PBS算法同化三个位置的土壤含水量的野外监测数据,以4 d为窗口,更新100个粒子样本的土壤水力参数。【结果】结果表明,土壤含水量的模拟值与实测值基本吻合,且模拟的孔隙水压力及边坡稳定系数能对降雨做出清晰、有效的响应。在经过2~3个窗口更新后,三个探头孔隙水压力模拟值不确定区间大小均小于0.11 m,边坡稳定系数的不确定区间大小分别为0.03、0.01和0.11。针对2017年8月28日的极端降雨诱发的滑坡灾害事件的预警,经PBS算法同化后的土壤含水量、孔隙水压力以及边坡稳定系数都收敛到较窄的集合区间,且当日低于1.0的边坡稳定系数,可警示滑坡风险。【结论】通过虚拟算例及实际应用,证实了PBS算法可支持稳健、可靠的土壤水力参数估计及渗流过程模拟,在边坡稳定分析及降雨型滑坡灾害预警领域具有广阔的应用价值。 展开更多
关键词 渗流-边坡稳定分析 土壤水分数据同化 土壤水动力模拟 窗口粒子滤波 滑坡灾害预警 降雨 滑坡 渗透系数
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Assimilation of ASAR Data with a Hydrologic and Semi-empirical Backscattering Coupled Model to Estimate Soil Moisture 被引量:3
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作者 LIU Qian WANG Mingyu ZHAO Yingshi 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 2010年第3期218-225,共8页
The most promising approach for studying soil moisture is the assimilation of observation data and computational modeling. However, there is much uncertainty in the assimilation process, which affects the assimilation... The most promising approach for studying soil moisture is the assimilation of observation data and computational modeling. However, there is much uncertainty in the assimilation process, which affects the assimilation results. This research developed a one-dimensional soil moisture assimilation scheme based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and Genetic Algorithm (GA). A two-dimensional hydrologic model-Distributed Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model (DHSVM) was coupled with a semi-empirical backscattering model (Oh). The Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) data were assimilated with this coupled model and the field observation data were used to validate this scheme in the soil moisture assimilation experiment. In order to improve the assimilation results, a cost function was set up based on the distance between the simulated backscattering coefficient from the coupled model and the observed backscattering coefficient from ASAR. The EnKF and GA were used to re-initialize and re-parameterize the simulation process, respectively. The assimilation results were compared with the free-run simulations from hydrologic model and the field observation data. The results obtained indicate that this assimilation scheme is practical and it can improve the accuracy of soil moisture estimation significantly. 展开更多
关键词 Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) Distributed Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model (DHSVM) Oh Model couple soil moisture data assimilation
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China land soil moisture EnKF data assimilation based on satellite remote sensing data 被引量:64
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作者 SHI ChunXiang XIE ZhengHui +2 位作者 QIAN Hui LIANG MiaoLing YANG XiaoChun 《Science China Earth Sciences》 SCIE EI CAS 2011年第9期1430-1440,共11页
Soil moisture plays an important role in land-atmosphere interactions. It is an important geophysical parameter in research on climate, hydrology, agriculture, and forestry. Soil moisture has important climatic effect... Soil moisture plays an important role in land-atmosphere interactions. It is an important geophysical parameter in research on climate, hydrology, agriculture, and forestry. Soil moisture has important climatic effects by influencing ground evapotranspi ration, runoff, surface reflectivity, surface emissivity, surface sensible heat and latent heat flux. At the global scale, the extent of its influence on the atmosphere is second only to that of sea surface temperature. At the terrestrial scale, its influence is even greater than that of sea surface temperatures. This paper presents a China Land Soil Moisture Data Assimilation System (CLSMDAS) based on EnKF and land process models, and results of the application of this system in the China Land Soil Moisture Data Assimilation tests. CLSMDAS is comprised of the following components: 1) A land process mo del—Community Land Model Version 3.0 (CLM3.0)—developed by the US National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR); 2) Precipitation of atmospheric forcing data and surface-incident solar radiation data come from hourly outputs of the FY2 geostationary meteorological satellite; 3) EnKF (Ensemble Kalman Filter) land data assimilation method; and 4) Observa tion data including satellite-inverted soil moisture outputs of the AMSR-E satellite and soil moisture observation data. Results of soil moisture assimilation tests from June to September 2006 were analyzed with CLSMDAS. Both simulation and assimila tion results of the land model reflected reasonably the temporal-spatial distribution of soil moisture. The assimilated soil mois ture distribution matches very well with severe summer droughts in Chongqing and Sichuan Province in August 2006, the worst since the foundation of the People’s Republic of China in 1949. It also matches drought regions that occurred in eastern Hubei and southern Guangxi in September. 展开更多
关键词 EnKF land data assimilation AMSR-E soil moisture FY2C geostationary satellite high-resolution precipitation surface incident solar radiation
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Numerical simulation and data assimilation of the water-energy cycle over semiarid northeastern China 被引量:1
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作者 WEN XiaoHang LIAO XiaoHan +6 位作者 YUAN WenPing YAN XiaoDong WEI ZhiGang LIU HuiZhi FENG JinMing LU ShiHua DONG WenJie 《Science China Earth Sciences》 SCIE EI CAS 2014年第10期2340-2356,共17页
The default fractional vegetation cover and terrain height were replaced by the estimated fractional vegetation cover, which was calculated by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of Earth Observing Sys... The default fractional vegetation cover and terrain height were replaced by the estimated fractional vegetation cover, which was calculated by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of Earth Observing System Moderate-Resolution Im- aging Spectroradiometer (EOS-MODIS) and the Digital Elevation Model of the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) system. The near-surface meteorological elements over northeastern China were assimilated into the three-dimensional varia- tional data assimilation system (3DVar) module in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The structure and daily variations of air temperature, humidity, wind and energy fields over northeastern China were simulated using the WRF model. Four groups of numerical experiments were performed, and the simulation results were analyzed of latent heat flux, sensible heat flux, and their relationships with changes in the surface energy flux due to soil moisture and precipitation over different surfaces. The simulations were compared with observations of the stations Tongyu, Naiman, Jinzhou, and Miyun from June to August, 2009. The results showed that the WRF model achieves high-quality simulations of the diurnal charac- teristics of the surface layer temperature, wind direction, net radiation, sensible heat flux, and latent heat flux over semiarid northeastern China in the summer. The simulated near-surface temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed were improved in the data assimilation case (Case 2) compared with control case (Case 1). The simulated sensible heat fluxes and surface heat fluxes were improved by the land surface parameterization case (Case 3) and the combined case (Case 4). The simulated tem- poral variations in soil moisture over the northeastern arid areas agree well with observations in Case 4, but the simulated pre- cipitation should be improved in the WRF model. This study could improve the land surface parameters by utilizing remote sensing data and could further improve atmospheric elements with a data assimilation system. This work provides an effective attempt at combining multi-source data with different spatial and temporal scales into numerical simulations. The assimilation datasets generated by this work can be applied to research on climate change and environmental monitoring of add lands, as well as research on the formation and stability of climate over semiarid areas. 展开更多
关键词 WRF model data assimilation water-energy cycle semiarid northeastern China
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