基于灰色马尔柯夫预报模型地下水动态预报研究

随着社会经济发展,地下水超采日益严重,为了科学地保护和合理利用地下水,本研究讨论了地下水动态预报方法。针对GM(1,1)灰色预报和马尔柯夫预报的优缺点,提出了灰色与马尔柯夫相耦合的灰色马尔柯夫预报模型,最后以河南某地区地下水埋深为例,验证了该方法的可行性。

线性规划在地下水动态预报中的应用

本文在指出相关分析法预报地下水位不足的同时,提出了线性规划方法预报地下水位的依据和具体作法。并以实例说明线性规划法预测地下水位的精度高于相关分析法的预测精度。

地下水动态预报DAMSM模型的研究及应用

通过地下水位监测系统的建设和地下水动态预报DAMSM模型的建立,及时、准确地掌握地下水位的变化情况,为区域水资源总量分析和合理配置提供依据。

非平稳时序模型在地下水动态预报中的可行性分析

以陕西省宝鸡峡灌区一典型井的水位埋深数据为资料,运用回归分析,傅立叶级数频谱分析及自回归模型分析等方法,建立地下水埋深的非平稳时序模型。采用该模型对该典型井未来水位埋深进行预测,将预测结果与实测数据进行对比。分析该模型的预测精度及其误差来源,阐述其应用于地下水动态预报的可行性,从而对如何提高该模型预测精度提出建议。

Groundwater Dating and Its Application to Earthquake Monitoring

Monitoring and study of dynamic characteristics of groundwater are significant methods of earthquake monitoring and forecasting. For research on groundwater dynamics,groundwater dating can qualitatively and quantitatively provide scientific analysis on the characteristics of groundwater recharge and runoff as well as renewal capacity. This article illustrates the methods used globally and summarizes the main advances and achievements in groundwater dating. It also focuses on the relationships between groundwater renewal capacity and seismic monitoring,groundwater movement and seismic activity,shallow groundwater recharge and abnormal interference elimination. The studies show that groundwater dating plays an important role in water-rock interaction,and geological tectonic and seismic activity evaluation. Therefore,groundwater dating can be widely used to monitor and analyze the precursor information in seismic underground fluid observations in the near future.