At present, there are no reliable methods to evaluate uncertainty of model representation of magnetic field （MF） in the whole volume of the Earth＇s magnetosphere. Cosmic ray intensity distribution on the Earth surf...At present, there are no reliable methods to evaluate uncertainty of model representation of magnetic field （MF） in the whole volume of the Earth＇s magnetosphere. Cosmic ray intensity distribution on the Earth surface contains information on the space distribution of magnetospheric MF through which charged particles propagate. Feasibility and limitations of cosmic ray data to be a tool for the validation of magnetospheric MF models have been analyzed. The authors＇ approach is based on the fact that time variations of magnetospheric cosmic ray are related to the changes in geomagnetic cutoff rigidities. The obtained cutoff rigidity changes by the trajectory tracing method in the MF model with those obtained on the base of experimental cosmic ray data have also been compared. The obtained results have shown that cosmic ray data can be successfully used for validation of models in presenting the dynamic structure of magnetospheric MF at mid latitudes.展开更多
Geological disasters not only cause economic losses and ecological destruction, but also seriously threaten human survival. Selecting an appropriate method to evaluate susceptibility to geological disasters is an impo...Geological disasters not only cause economic losses and ecological destruction, but also seriously threaten human survival. Selecting an appropriate method to evaluate susceptibility to geological disasters is an important part of geological disaster research. The aims of this study are to explore the accuracy and reliability of multi-regression methods for geological disaster susceptibility evaluation, including Logistic Regression(LR), Spatial Autoregression(SAR), Geographical Weighted Regression(GWR), and Support Vector Regression(SVR), all of which have been widely discussed in the literature. In this study, we selected Yunnan Province of China as the research site and collected data on typical geological disaster events and the associated hazards that occurred within the study area to construct a corresponding index system for geological disaster assessment. Four methods were used to model and evaluate geological disaster susceptibility. The predictive capabilities of the methods were verified using the receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve and the success rate curve. Lastly, spatial accuracy validation was introduced to improve the results of the evaluation, which was demonstrated by the spatial receiver operating characteristic(SROC) curve and the spatial success rate(SSR) curve. The results suggest that: 1) these methods are all valid with respect to the SROC and SSR curves, and the spatial accuracy validation method improved their modelling results and accuracy, such that the area under the curve(AUC) values of the ROC curves increased by about 3%–13% and the AUC of the success rate curve values increased by 15%–20%; 2) the evaluation accuracies of LR, SAR, GWR, and SVR were 0.8325, 0.8393, 0.8370 and 0.8539, which proved the four statistical regression methods all have good evaluation capability for geological disaster susceptibility evaluation and the evaluation results of SVR are more reasonable than others; 3) according to the evaluation results of SVR, the central-southern Yunnan Province are the highest sus-ceptibility areas and the lowest susceptibility is mainly located in the central and northern parts of the study area.展开更多
文摘At present, there are no reliable methods to evaluate uncertainty of model representation of magnetic field （MF） in the whole volume of the Earth＇s magnetosphere. Cosmic ray intensity distribution on the Earth surface contains information on the space distribution of magnetospheric MF through which charged particles propagate. Feasibility and limitations of cosmic ray data to be a tool for the validation of magnetospheric MF models have been analyzed. The authors＇ approach is based on the fact that time variations of magnetospheric cosmic ray are related to the changes in geomagnetic cutoff rigidities. The obtained cutoff rigidity changes by the trajectory tracing method in the MF model with those obtained on the base of experimental cosmic ray data have also been compared. The obtained results have shown that cosmic ray data can be successfully used for validation of models in presenting the dynamic structure of magnetospheric MF at mid latitudes.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41571077,No.41171318The Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities
文摘Geological disasters not only cause economic losses and ecological destruction, but also seriously threaten human survival. Selecting an appropriate method to evaluate susceptibility to geological disasters is an important part of geological disaster research. The aims of this study are to explore the accuracy and reliability of multi-regression methods for geological disaster susceptibility evaluation, including Logistic Regression(LR), Spatial Autoregression(SAR), Geographical Weighted Regression(GWR), and Support Vector Regression(SVR), all of which have been widely discussed in the literature. In this study, we selected Yunnan Province of China as the research site and collected data on typical geological disaster events and the associated hazards that occurred within the study area to construct a corresponding index system for geological disaster assessment. Four methods were used to model and evaluate geological disaster susceptibility. The predictive capabilities of the methods were verified using the receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve and the success rate curve. Lastly, spatial accuracy validation was introduced to improve the results of the evaluation, which was demonstrated by the spatial receiver operating characteristic(SROC) curve and the spatial success rate(SSR) curve. The results suggest that: 1) these methods are all valid with respect to the SROC and SSR curves, and the spatial accuracy validation method improved their modelling results and accuracy, such that the area under the curve(AUC) values of the ROC curves increased by about 3%–13% and the AUC of the success rate curve values increased by 15%–20%; 2) the evaluation accuracies of LR, SAR, GWR, and SVR were 0.8325, 0.8393, 0.8370 and 0.8539, which proved the four statistical regression methods all have good evaluation capability for geological disaster susceptibility evaluation and the evaluation results of SVR are more reasonable than others; 3) according to the evaluation results of SVR, the central-southern Yunnan Province are the highest sus-ceptibility areas and the lowest susceptibility is mainly located in the central and northern parts of the study area.
