It is generally accepted that climate has changed greatly on a global scale, and that the earth's climate has already wanned by some degrees over the past century. Ample evidence shows that there have been apparent c...It is generally accepted that climate has changed greatly on a global scale, and that the earth's climate has already wanned by some degrees over the past century. Ample evidence shows that there have been apparent changes in avian population dynamics, life-history traits and geographic ranges in response to global climate change. This paper briefly reviews the possible effects of climate change on avian biology and ecology all over the world, with emphasis on new findings from several long-term studies in Europe and North America, which provide unique opportunities to investigate how long-term changes in climate affect birds at both individual and population levels. The implications of such long-term studies for future bird studies in China is discussed with hope that this review can contribute to the preparation and plan for studies of climatic effects on birds in China in the future.展开更多
Based on the meteorological data and production data of maize of 10 stations in Northeast China from 1961 to 2006,the primary climatic factors influencing maize yield in different region were studies by the method of ...Based on the meteorological data and production data of maize of 10 stations in Northeast China from 1961 to 2006,the primary climatic factors influencing maize yield in different region were studies by the method of Baier yields models.The result showed that the yield of maize in Heilongjiang and Jilin Province were mainly affected by temperatures,with air temperature increased,the meteorological yield of maize increased.The meteorological yield of maize in Liaoning Province was mainly affected by precipitation and sunshine duration,and different regions had different effects.展开更多
A regional model of vegetation dynamics was revised to include land use as a constraint to vegetation dynamics and primary production processes. The model was applied to a forest transect in eastern China (NSTEC, Nort...A regional model of vegetation dynamics was revised to include land use as a constraint to vegetation dynamics and primary production processes. The model was applied to a forest transect in eastern China (NSTEC, North-South transect of eastern China) to investigate the responses of the transect to possible future climatic change. The simulation result indicated that land use has profound effects on vegetation transition and primary production. In particular, land use reduced competition among vegetation classes and tended to result in less evergreen broadleaf forests but more shrubs and grasses in the transect area. The simulation runs with land use constraint also gave much more realistic estimation about net primary productivity as well as responses of the productivity to future climatic change along the transect. The simulations for future climate scenarios projected by general circulation models (GCM) with doubled atmospheric CO2 concentration predicted that deciduous broadleaf forests would increase, but conifer forests, shrubs and grasses would decrease. The overall effects of doubling CO2 and climatic changes on NSTEC were to produce an increased net primary productivity (NPP) at equilibrium for all seven GCM scenarios. The predicted range of NPP variation in the north is much larger than that in the south.展开更多
[Objective] The aim was to explore response characters of NDVI of different types of vegetation to climate change. [Method] Based on NDVI data acquired by SPOT/VGT and meteorological data of five meteorological statio...[Objective] The aim was to explore response characters of NDVI of different types of vegetation to climate change. [Method] Based on NDVI data acquired by SPOT/VGT and meteorological data of five meteorological stations during 19982011, the change trend of NDVI and the relevant correlation with meteorological factors were analyzed in the research area. [Result] NDVI of different types of vegetation in Zhalong wetland kept increasing, especially after 2004. Of the vegetations, NDVI was of significant positive correlation with average temperature, average minimum temperature, average maximum temperature, rainfall and average relative humidity in a ten-day period (P 0.01). In addition, NDVI responses are of different characters to meteorological factors. The responses of NDVI of vegetations were of lag phase to meteorological factors in Zhalong wetland. Specifically, the lag phase of ten-day average temperature and ten-day average minimum temperature was 10-20 d; the lag phase of ten-day average maximum temperature was 20 -30 d; the lag phase of ten-day rainfall was 20 d; the lag phase of ten-day averager relative humidity was 0-10 d. [Conclusion] The research provides references for further exploration of vegetations’ responses to climate change and formulation of vegetation protection and utilization under background of climate change.展开更多
Based on spatial climatic data of agriculture and the experiment data, the models of agro-ecological assessment of climate for agricultural suitability in this study were developed using the fuzzy mathematical method....Based on spatial climatic data of agriculture and the experiment data, the models of agro-ecological assessment of climate for agricultural suitability in this study were developed using the fuzzy mathematical method. Three coefficients, in- cluding the resource coefficient (Cr), the efficiency coefficient (Ce), and the utility co- efficient (K), were used in the models, which were calculated based on temperature, moisture, and sunshine duration data of Guanzhong region, Shaanxi Province. The results indicated that resource coefficient was higher in west of the region than that in east, and higher in south (especially in the Central Shaanxi Plain) than that in the Weibei plateau. The value of Cr changed from 6.5 to 9.2 from north to plain area. Spatial change of efficiency coefficient was obvious, lower in the northeast than in the central plain, and the value of Ce changed from 2.3 to 6.5 from the northeast to the central plain. As for utility coefficient, it was lower in northeastern part of the Weibei plateau and in southern mountain areas than that in the central plain, showing significant latitudinal zonality. Furthermore, the value of K increased from 0.35 to 0.78 from northeast to the central plain, and decreased from 0.78 to 0.53 from the central plain to southern mountain areas. These indicated that climate resource in the central plain region was more abundant and potential, compared with other regions. GuanZhong region was classified into three larger agricultural zones and three small independent zones, according to agro-ecological assessment. Light, heat and water resources should be made use of in an efficient way in spatial allo- cation of agricultural production. For example, water facilities should also be im- proved in Weibei plateau region where highly-qualified fruit should be enhanced and fruit processing industrial chain should be shaped. Large-scale production area of wheat should be increased in central irrigation region and more vegetable bases should be developed around large and medium-scale cities. Thanks for outstanding water conservation function, the three-dimensional agriculture including medicine and other sideline production should be developed in Qinling Mountains and the special- ized commercial agriculture should be accelerated in independent small zones, ac- cording to local conditions. In the research, different crop varieties were developed in corresponding regions as per current eco-climatic conditions.展开更多
Northeast China as one of important agricultural production bases is an area under reclamation and returning cultivated land to forests or pastures. Therefore, it is of great practical significance in guaranteeing the...Northeast China as one of important agricultural production bases is an area under reclamation and returning cultivated land to forests or pastures. Therefore, it is of great practical significance in guaranteeing the sustainable development and national food security to study the spatial and temporal variation of cultivated land in Northeast China under future climate scenarios. In this study, based on data of land use, natural environment and social-economy, dynamics of land system(DLS) model was used to to simulate the spatial distribution and changing trends of cultivated land in the typical areas of reclamation and returning cultivated land to forest or pastures in Northeast China during 2010-2030 under land use planning scenario and representative concentration pathways(RCPs) scenarios quantitatively.The results showed that the area of cultivated land had an overall decreasing trend under the land use planning scenario, but the area of upland field increased slightly from 2000 to 2010 and then declined greatly, while the area of paddy field continuously declined from 2000 to 2030. Under the Asia-Pacific Integrated model(AIM)scenario, the total area of cultivated land had a tendency to increase considerably,with the upland field expanding more obviously and the paddy field declining slightly.In addition, the cultivated land showed a greater decreasing trend under the model for energy supply strategy alternatives and their general environmental impact(MESSAGE) scenario compared to the land use planning scenario. Moreover, analysis on the conversion between different land use types indicated that the reclamation and returning cultivated land to forests or pastures was likely to continue under future scenarios, but the frequency of occurrence could decrease as the time goes by. The conclusions can provide significant decision-making information for the rational agricultural planning and cultivated land protection in Northeast China to adapt to the climate change.展开更多
Human-induced land use/cover change (LUCC) forms an important component of global environmental change. Therefore, it is important to study land use/cover and its change at local, regional and global scales. In this p...Human-induced land use/cover change (LUCC) forms an important component of global environmental change. Therefore, it is important to study land use/cover and its change at local, regional and global scales. In this paper we conducted the study of land use change in Northeast China, one of the most important agricultural zones of the nation. From 1986 to 2000, according to the study results obtained from Landsat images, widespread changes in land use/cover took place in the study area. Grassland, marsh, water body and woodland decreased by 9864, 3973, 1367 and 10,052km2, respectively. By comparison, paddy field, dry farmland, and built-up land expanded by 7339, 17193 and 700km2, respectively. Those changes bore an interactive relationship with the environment, especially climate change. On the one hand, climate warming created a potential environment for grassland and marsh to be changed to farmland as more crops could thrive in the warmer climate, and for dry farmland to paddy field. On the other hand, the changed surface cover modified the local climate. Those changes, in turn, have adversely influenced the local environment by accelerating land degradation. In terms of socio-economic driving forces, population augment, regional economic development, and national and provincial policies were confirmed as main driving factors for land use change.展开更多
After dividing the source regions of the Yellow River into 38 sub-basins, thepaper made use of the SWAT model to simulate streamflow with validation and calibration of theobserved yearly and monthly runoff data from t...After dividing the source regions of the Yellow River into 38 sub-basins, thepaper made use of the SWAT model to simulate streamflow with validation and calibration of theobserved yearly and monthly runoff data from the Tangnag hydrological station, and simulationresults are satisfactory. Five land-cover scenario models and 24 sets of temperature andprecipitation combinations were established to simulate annual runoff and runoff depth underdifferent scenarios. The simulation shows that with the increasing of vegetation coverage annualrunoff increases and evapotranspiration decreases in the basin. When temperature decreases by 2℃and precipitation increases by 20%, catchment runoff will increase by 39.69%, which is the largestsituation among all scenarios.展开更多
Combined with recent historical climate data and two periods of land use datasets from remote sensing data, we test the net primary productivity (NPP) data sets in North Chinamodelled by the satellite data-driven Glob...Combined with recent historical climate data and two periods of land use datasets from remote sensing data, we test the net primary productivity (NPP) data sets in North Chinamodelled by the satellite data-driven Global Production Efficiency Model (GLO-PEM) for detecting thewidespread spatial and temporal characteristics of the impacts of climate and land use change onthe regional NPP. Our results show that over the past 20 years, the mean annual temperature in thestudy region has remarkably increased by more than 0.064 ℃, but over the same period, there hasbeen a 1.49 mm decrease in annual precipitation and decrease in NPP by an annual rate of 6.9 TgC.The NPP changes in the study region were greatly affected by the average temperature andprecipitation by ten-day periods as well as the seasonal temperature and precipitation in the studyregion. The correlation between seasonal NPP and seasonal precipitation and temperature is highlyconsistent with land cover spatially, and the correlation coefficient changes with the changes ofvegetation types. The analysis reveals that the related areas in land use change only take up 5.45%of the whole studied region, so the climate changes dominate the impacts on the NPP in the wholestudy region (90% of the total). However, land use plays an absolute dominative role in areas withland cover changes, accounting for 97% of the total. From 1981 to 2000, the NPP in the whole studyregion remarkably reduced due to obvious precipitation decrease and temperature rise. Between twoperiods of land use (about 10 years), the changes in climate are predicted to promote a decrease inNPP by 78 ( + -0.6) TgC, and integrated impacts of climate changes and land use to promote adecrease in NPP by 87(+-0.8) TgC.展开更多
The historical simulation of phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ex- periments performed by the Beijing Climate Center cli- mate system model (BCC_CSM1.1) is evaluated regard- ing the t...The historical simulation of phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ex- periments performed by the Beijing Climate Center cli- mate system model (BCC_CSM1.1) is evaluated regard- ing the time evolutions of the global and China mean sur- face air temperature (SAT) and surface climate change over China in recent decades. BCC CSM1.1 has better capability at reproducing the time evolutions of the global and China mean SAT than BCC_CSM1.0. By the year 2005, the BCC_CSM1.1 model simulates a warming am- plitude of approximately I℃ in China over the 1961- 1990 mean, which is consistent with observation. The distributions of the warming trend over China in the four seasons during 1958-2004 are basically reproduced by BCC CSM1.1, with the warmest occurring in winter. Al- though the cooling signal of Southwest China in spring is partly reproduced by BCC_CSM1.1, the cooling trend over central eastern China in summer is omitted by the model. For the precipitation change, BCC_CSM1.1 has good performance in spring, with drought in Southeast China. After removing the linear trend, the interannual correlation map between the model and the observation shows that the model has better capability at reproducing the summer SAT over China and spring precipitation over Southeast China.展开更多
Ecosystem response to climate change in high-altitude regions is a focus on global change research. Picea/Abies forests are widely distributed at high altitudes of East and Central Asia, and their distribution changes...Ecosystem response to climate change in high-altitude regions is a focus on global change research. Picea/Abies forests are widely distributed at high altitudes of East and Central Asia, and their distribution changes are sensitive to climate change. Humidity is an important climatic factor that affects high-altitude ecosystems; however, the relationship between distribution changes of Picea/Abies forests and millennial-scale variability of humidity is still not dear. Palynological records can provide insights into millennial-scale paleovegetation changes, which have been successfully used to reconstruct past climate change in East and Central Asia. In this study, we synthesized 24 Picea/Abies pollen and humidity/moisture changes based upon Holocene lake records in East and Central Asia in order to explore the response of high-latitude ecosystem to millennial-scale climate change. The changing pattern of Holocene lacustrine Picea/Abies pollen in arid Central Asia differs from that of monsoonal East Asia, which can be due to different millennial-scale climate change patterns between monsoonal and arid Central Asia. Then, the relationship between changes in Picea/Abies pollen and humidity/moisture conditions was examined based on a comparison of pollen and humidity/moisture records. The results indicate that millennial-scale Picea/Abies distribution changes aremainly controlled by moisture variability at high altitudes, while the temperature effect plays a minor role in Picea/Abies distribution changes. Moreover, this research proves that lacustrine Picea/Abies pollen can be used as an indicator of millennial-scale humidity/moisture evolution at high altitudes in East and Central Asia.展开更多
As dominant biomes,forests play an important and indispensable role in adjusting the global carbon balance under climate change.Therefore,there are scientific and political implications in investigating the carbon bud...As dominant biomes,forests play an important and indispensable role in adjusting the global carbon balance under climate change.Therefore,there are scientific and political implications in investigating the carbon budget of forest ecosystems and its response to climate change.Here we synthesized the most recent research progresses on the carbon cycle in terrestrial ecosystems,and applied an individual-based forest ecosystem carbon budget model for China(FORCCHN) to simulate the dynamics of the carbon fluxes of forest ecosystems in the northeastern China.The FORCCHN model was further improved and applied through adding variables and modules of precipitation(rainfall and snowfall) interception by tree crown,understory plants and litter.The results showed that the optimized FORCCHN model had a good performance in simulating the carbon budget of forest ecosystems in the northeastern China.From 1981 to 2002,the forests played a positive role in absorbing carbon dioxide.However,the capability of forest carbon sequestration had been gradually declining during the the same period.As for the average spatial distri-bution of net carbon budget,a majority of the regions were carbon sinks.Several scattered areas in the Heilongjiang Province and the Liaoning Province were identified as carbon sources.The net carbon budget was apparently more sensitive to an increase of air temperature than change of precipitation.展开更多
Wetlands are sensitive to climate change, in the same time, wetlands can influence climate. This study analyzed the spa- rio-temporal characteristics of wetland change in the semi-arid zone of Northeast China from 198...Wetlands are sensitive to climate change, in the same time, wetlands can influence climate. This study analyzed the spa- rio-temporal characteristics of wetland change in the semi-arid zone of Northeast China from 1985 to 2010, and investigated the impact of large area of wetland change on local climate. Results showed that the total area of wetlands was on a rise in the study area. Although natural wetlands (marshes, riparians and lakes) decreased, constructed wetlands (rice fields) increased significantly, and the highest in- crease rate in many places exceeded 30%. Anthropogenic activities are major driving factors for wetland change. Wetland change pro- duced an impact on local climate, mainly on maximum temperature and precipitation during the period of May-September. The increase (or decrease) of wetland area could reduce (or increase) the increment of maximum temperature and the decrement of precipitation. The changes in both maximum temperature and precipitation corresponded with wetland change in spatial distribution. Wetland change played a more important role in moderating local climate compared to the contribution of woodland and grassland changes in the study area. Cold-humid effect of wetlands was main way to moderating local climate as well as alleviating climatic wanning and drying in the study area, and heterogeneity of underlying surface broadened the cold-humid effect of wetlands.展开更多
The regional observed temperature and precipitation changes and their abruptjumps disturbed by large-scale reclamation in the Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China were studied. Meanannual temperature of the region was tend...The regional observed temperature and precipitation changes and their abruptjumps disturbed by large-scale reclamation in the Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China were studied. Meanannual temperature of the region was tending to go up and has increased by 1.2-2.2℃ over the past50 years. A warming jump of mean annual temperature of the region occurred in the 1980s, which hadan increasg amplitude of 0.9℃. Linear tendency rates of annual precipitation were negative in mostof the region. The maximum of annual precipitation decrease was 155.8mm over the past 50 years. Anabrupt decrease of regional annual precipitation happened in the middle of the 1960s, which had adecrease of 102.1mm. Based on the fact of climatic change of the Sanjiang Plain over the past 50years, it is held that the region had larger warming amplitude than that of the surrounding areas inthe recent years, which resulted from the large-scale reclamation of various kinds of wetlands.展开更多
The Himalaya represents a vast mountain system and globally valued for its significant role in regulation of global as well as regional climate that has direct impact on biodiversity and ecosystem services crucial for...The Himalaya represents a vast mountain system and globally valued for its significant role in regulation of global as well as regional climate that has direct impact on biodiversity and ecosystem services crucial for sustenance of millions of people in Himalaya and adjoining areas. However, mountain regions worldwide are impacted by climate change and at the same time represent distinctive area for the assessment of climate related impacts. Climate change impacts in Himalayan region have its implications on food production, natural ecosystems,retreat of glacier, water supply, human and animal health and overall human well being. The livelihood and food security of the people inhabited in region largely depend on climate sensitive sectors i.e.agriculture, livestock, forestry and their interlinkages with each other, and has the potential to break down food and nutritional security as well as livelihood support systems. People's perception and understanding of climate can be an important asset when it comes to adaptation to climate change impact;however it is not taken into consideration for the development of policy design and implementation of modern mitigation and adaptation strategies by governments and other civil society organizations.The knowledge of local people and farming communities for rural landscape management and sustainable use of bioresources is gaining credence as a key strategy to cope up with the climate change.Therefore, the present study analyzes the indigenous knowledge of local people and their perceptions on climate change, and also documented adaptation approaches at local level in mountain ecosystem of western Himalaya. The study could be useful to policy makers to design appropriate adaptation strategies to cope up with the impacts of climate change.展开更多
Rapid economic growth in China has brought about great economic-social changes in rural areas, having considerable impact on the society in economy and environment. With a per capita possession of about 0.08 ha of cro...Rapid economic growth in China has brought about great economic-social changes in rural areas, having considerable impact on the society in economy and environment. With a per capita possession of about 0.08 ha of cropland, Chinese farmers in rural areas adopt various ways in response to these changes in a bit to maintain their livelihood, wherein the agricultural system is facing one more options possible. To understand how rural communities have used different mechanisms to adapt to the economic and natural changes, we joined a survey in dry valleys of the Min upriver area under Maoxian county of western Sichuan province, southwestern China and visited the local people. Changes in the main crop cultivation have shown up an important means to keep up their household income. Farm households start seeking economic growth through diversified cultivating of cereal and economic crops in five lines, namely cereal, apple monoculture, apple and vegetables, plum and vegetables, mixed fruits and vegetables. These new lines mirror farmers' flexibility to cope with today's economic-social and climatic changes. The farming operation has changed all the more from a subsistence on grain to special agricultural products. Economic reforms in the early 1980 s motivated theprogress first in conversion of production from grain to fruits, and the desire to increase family income turned out to be an impetus for the subsequent events. At present, more farmers moving out of the rural areas, uneasy availability of labor force, increased opportunity cost of labors and their wages, increased farm size, and the urgent demand for the agricultural labor force, all these combine into the trend of the agricultural system of China on facing further economic-social reforms and reconstruction of the countryside across China.展开更多
Climate change affected the agricultural expansion and the formation of farming-grazing transitional patterns during historical periods. This study analyzed the possible range of the boundary shift of the potential su...Climate change affected the agricultural expansion and the formation of farming-grazing transitional patterns during historical periods. This study analyzed the possible range of the boundary shift of the potential suitable agriculture area in the farming-grazing transitional zone in the northeastern China during the 20th century. Based on modem weather data, 1 km-resolution land cover data, historical climatic time series, and estimation by using similar historical climatic scenes, the following was concluded: 1) The climate conditions of suitable agriculture areas in the farming-grazing transitional zone in the northeastern China between 1971 and 2000 required an average annual temperature above 1℃ or ≥ 0℃ accumulated temperature above 2500℃-2700℃, and annual precipitation above 350 mm. 2) The northern boundary of the potential suitable agriculture area during the relatively warmer period of 1890-1910 was approximately located at the position of the 1961-2000 area. The northern boundary shifted back to the south by 75 km on average during the colder period of the earlier 20th century, whereas during the modem warm period of the 1990s, the area shifted north by 100 km on average. 3) The western and eastern boundaries of the suitable agricul^re area during the heaviest drought periods between 1920s and 1930s had shifted northeast by 250 km and 125 km, respectively, contrasting to the boundaries of 1951-2008. For the wettest period, that is, the 1890s to the 1910s, the shift of western and eastern boundaries was to the southwest by 125 km and 200 km, respectively, compared with that in the 1951-2008 period. This study serves as a reference for identifying a climatically sensitive area and planning future land use and agricultural production in the study area.展开更多
Land surface temperature(LST)is an important variable for assessing climate change and related environmental impacts observed in recent decades.Regular monitoring of LST using satellite sensors such as MODIS has the a...Land surface temperature(LST)is an important variable for assessing climate change and related environmental impacts observed in recent decades.Regular monitoring of LST using satellite sensors such as MODIS has the advantage of global coverage,including topographically complex regions such as Nepal.In order to assess the climatic and environmental changes,daytime and nighttime LST trend analysis from 2000 to 2017 using Terra-MODIS monthly daytime and nighttime LST datasets at seasonal and annual scales over the territory of Nepal was performed.The magnitude of the trend was quantified using ordinary linear regression,while the statistical significance of the trend was identified by the Modified Mann—Kendall test.Our findings suggest that the nighttime LST in Nepal increased more prominently compared to the daytime LST,with more pronounced warming in the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons.The annual nighttime LST increased at a rate of 0.05 K yr-1(p<0.01),while the daytime LST change was statistically insignificant.Spatial heterogeneity of the LST and LST change was observed both during the day and the night.The daytime LST remained fairly unchanged in large parts of Nepal,while a nighttime LST rise was dominant all across Nepal in the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons.Our results on LST trends and their spatial distribution can facilitate a better understanding of regional climate changes.展开更多
Based on the simulation with the Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Model CCSM and Ocean Model POP under the green- house gas emission scenario of the IPCC SRES A2 (IPCC, 2001), and on the earth crust subsidence and glacier m...Based on the simulation with the Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Model CCSM and Ocean Model POP under the green- house gas emission scenario of the IPCC SRES A2 (IPCC, 2001), and on the earth crust subsidence and glacier melting data, the relative sea level change is obtained along the coast of China in the 21 st century. Using the SRTM elevation data the submergence of coastal low land is calculated under the extreme water level with a 100-year retum period. The total flooding areas are 98.3× 10^3 and 104.9× 10^3 km2 for 2050 and 2080, respectively. For the three regions most vulnerable to extreme sea level rise, i.e., the coast of Bohai Bay, the Yangtze River Delta together with neighboring Jiangsu Province and northern Zhejiang Province, and the Pearl River Delta, the flooded areas are 5.0× 10^3, 64.1×10^3 and 15.3 × 10^3 km2 in 2050 and 5.2 × 10^3, 67.8×10^3 and 17.2 × 10^3 km2 in 2080, respectively.展开更多
文摘It is generally accepted that climate has changed greatly on a global scale, and that the earth's climate has already wanned by some degrees over the past century. Ample evidence shows that there have been apparent changes in avian population dynamics, life-history traits and geographic ranges in response to global climate change. This paper briefly reviews the possible effects of climate change on avian biology and ecology all over the world, with emphasis on new findings from several long-term studies in Europe and North America, which provide unique opportunities to investigate how long-term changes in climate affect birds at both individual and population levels. The implications of such long-term studies for future bird studies in China is discussed with hope that this review can contribute to the preparation and plan for studies of climatic effects on birds in China in the future.
基金Supported by National Science and Technology R&D Program(2006BAD04B02)~~
文摘Based on the meteorological data and production data of maize of 10 stations in Northeast China from 1961 to 2006,the primary climatic factors influencing maize yield in different region were studies by the method of Baier yields models.The result showed that the yield of maize in Heilongjiang and Jilin Province were mainly affected by temperatures,with air temperature increased,the meteorological yield of maize increased.The meteorological yield of maize in Liaoning Province was mainly affected by precipitation and sunshine duration,and different regions had different effects.
文摘A regional model of vegetation dynamics was revised to include land use as a constraint to vegetation dynamics and primary production processes. The model was applied to a forest transect in eastern China (NSTEC, North-South transect of eastern China) to investigate the responses of the transect to possible future climatic change. The simulation result indicated that land use has profound effects on vegetation transition and primary production. In particular, land use reduced competition among vegetation classes and tended to result in less evergreen broadleaf forests but more shrubs and grasses in the transect area. The simulation runs with land use constraint also gave much more realistic estimation about net primary productivity as well as responses of the productivity to future climatic change along the transect. The simulations for future climate scenarios projected by general circulation models (GCM) with doubled atmospheric CO2 concentration predicted that deciduous broadleaf forests would increase, but conifer forests, shrubs and grasses would decrease. The overall effects of doubling CO2 and climatic changes on NSTEC were to produce an increased net primary productivity (NPP) at equilibrium for all seven GCM scenarios. The predicted range of NPP variation in the north is much larger than that in the south.
基金Supported by the Special Fund for Meteorological-Scientific Research in the Public Interest (GYHY201306036)Heilongjiang Science Technology Department Key Program (GZ09C102)~~
文摘[Objective] The aim was to explore response characters of NDVI of different types of vegetation to climate change. [Method] Based on NDVI data acquired by SPOT/VGT and meteorological data of five meteorological stations during 19982011, the change trend of NDVI and the relevant correlation with meteorological factors were analyzed in the research area. [Result] NDVI of different types of vegetation in Zhalong wetland kept increasing, especially after 2004. Of the vegetations, NDVI was of significant positive correlation with average temperature, average minimum temperature, average maximum temperature, rainfall and average relative humidity in a ten-day period (P 0.01). In addition, NDVI responses are of different characters to meteorological factors. The responses of NDVI of vegetations were of lag phase to meteorological factors in Zhalong wetland. Specifically, the lag phase of ten-day average temperature and ten-day average minimum temperature was 10-20 d; the lag phase of ten-day average maximum temperature was 20 -30 d; the lag phase of ten-day rainfall was 20 d; the lag phase of ten-day averager relative humidity was 0-10 d. [Conclusion] The research provides references for further exploration of vegetations’ responses to climate change and formulation of vegetation protection and utilization under background of climate change.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(4113074841101162+2 种基金4100137441101165)Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(KZCX2-YW-QN304)~~
文摘Based on spatial climatic data of agriculture and the experiment data, the models of agro-ecological assessment of climate for agricultural suitability in this study were developed using the fuzzy mathematical method. Three coefficients, in- cluding the resource coefficient (Cr), the efficiency coefficient (Ce), and the utility co- efficient (K), were used in the models, which were calculated based on temperature, moisture, and sunshine duration data of Guanzhong region, Shaanxi Province. The results indicated that resource coefficient was higher in west of the region than that in east, and higher in south (especially in the Central Shaanxi Plain) than that in the Weibei plateau. The value of Cr changed from 6.5 to 9.2 from north to plain area. Spatial change of efficiency coefficient was obvious, lower in the northeast than in the central plain, and the value of Ce changed from 2.3 to 6.5 from the northeast to the central plain. As for utility coefficient, it was lower in northeastern part of the Weibei plateau and in southern mountain areas than that in the central plain, showing significant latitudinal zonality. Furthermore, the value of K increased from 0.35 to 0.78 from northeast to the central plain, and decreased from 0.78 to 0.53 from the central plain to southern mountain areas. These indicated that climate resource in the central plain region was more abundant and potential, compared with other regions. GuanZhong region was classified into three larger agricultural zones and three small independent zones, according to agro-ecological assessment. Light, heat and water resources should be made use of in an efficient way in spatial allo- cation of agricultural production. For example, water facilities should also be im- proved in Weibei plateau region where highly-qualified fruit should be enhanced and fruit processing industrial chain should be shaped. Large-scale production area of wheat should be increased in central irrigation region and more vegetable bases should be developed around large and medium-scale cities. Thanks for outstanding water conservation function, the three-dimensional agriculture including medicine and other sideline production should be developed in Qinling Mountains and the special- ized commercial agriculture should be accelerated in independent small zones, ac- cording to local conditions. In the research, different crop varieties were developed in corresponding regions as per current eco-climatic conditions.
基金Supported by the Major Research Project of National Natural Science Foundation Committee(91325302)China Postdoctoral Foundation(2014M560110)Hebei Social Science Foundation(HB15GL087)~~
文摘Northeast China as one of important agricultural production bases is an area under reclamation and returning cultivated land to forests or pastures. Therefore, it is of great practical significance in guaranteeing the sustainable development and national food security to study the spatial and temporal variation of cultivated land in Northeast China under future climate scenarios. In this study, based on data of land use, natural environment and social-economy, dynamics of land system(DLS) model was used to to simulate the spatial distribution and changing trends of cultivated land in the typical areas of reclamation and returning cultivated land to forest or pastures in Northeast China during 2010-2030 under land use planning scenario and representative concentration pathways(RCPs) scenarios quantitatively.The results showed that the area of cultivated land had an overall decreasing trend under the land use planning scenario, but the area of upland field increased slightly from 2000 to 2010 and then declined greatly, while the area of paddy field continuously declined from 2000 to 2030. Under the Asia-Pacific Integrated model(AIM)scenario, the total area of cultivated land had a tendency to increase considerably,with the upland field expanding more obviously and the paddy field declining slightly.In addition, the cultivated land showed a greater decreasing trend under the model for energy supply strategy alternatives and their general environmental impact(MESSAGE) scenario compared to the land use planning scenario. Moreover, analysis on the conversion between different land use types indicated that the reclamation and returning cultivated land to forests or pastures was likely to continue under future scenarios, but the frequency of occurrence could decrease as the time goes by. The conclusions can provide significant decision-making information for the rational agricultural planning and cultivated land protection in Northeast China to adapt to the climate change.
基金Under the auspices of the Knowledge Innovation Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX2-YW-341)National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40871187, 40801208)
文摘Human-induced land use/cover change (LUCC) forms an important component of global environmental change. Therefore, it is important to study land use/cover and its change at local, regional and global scales. In this paper we conducted the study of land use change in Northeast China, one of the most important agricultural zones of the nation. From 1986 to 2000, according to the study results obtained from Landsat images, widespread changes in land use/cover took place in the study area. Grassland, marsh, water body and woodland decreased by 9864, 3973, 1367 and 10,052km2, respectively. By comparison, paddy field, dry farmland, and built-up land expanded by 7339, 17193 and 700km2, respectively. Those changes bore an interactive relationship with the environment, especially climate change. On the one hand, climate warming created a potential environment for grassland and marsh to be changed to farmland as more crops could thrive in the warmer climate, and for dry farmland to paddy field. On the other hand, the changed surface cover modified the local climate. Those changes, in turn, have adversely influenced the local environment by accelerating land degradation. In terms of socio-economic driving forces, population augment, regional economic development, and national and provincial policies were confirmed as main driving factors for land use change.
基金National Key Project for Basic Sciences (973) No. G1999043601
文摘After dividing the source regions of the Yellow River into 38 sub-basins, thepaper made use of the SWAT model to simulate streamflow with validation and calibration of theobserved yearly and monthly runoff data from the Tangnag hydrological station, and simulationresults are satisfactory. Five land-cover scenario models and 24 sets of temperature andprecipitation combinations were established to simulate annual runoff and runoff depth underdifferent scenarios. The simulation shows that with the increasing of vegetation coverage annualrunoff increases and evapotranspiration decreases in the basin. When temperature decreases by 2℃and precipitation increases by 20%, catchment runoff will increase by 39.69%, which is the largestsituation among all scenarios.
基金National 973 Project No.2002CB412507+5 种基金 National Natural Science Foundation of China No.90202002 Knowledge Innovation Project of IGSNRR CAS No.CXIOG-E01-02-04 One Hundred Talents Program of CAS.
文摘Combined with recent historical climate data and two periods of land use datasets from remote sensing data, we test the net primary productivity (NPP) data sets in North Chinamodelled by the satellite data-driven Global Production Efficiency Model (GLO-PEM) for detecting thewidespread spatial and temporal characteristics of the impacts of climate and land use change onthe regional NPP. Our results show that over the past 20 years, the mean annual temperature in thestudy region has remarkably increased by more than 0.064 ℃, but over the same period, there hasbeen a 1.49 mm decrease in annual precipitation and decrease in NPP by an annual rate of 6.9 TgC.The NPP changes in the study region were greatly affected by the average temperature andprecipitation by ten-day periods as well as the seasonal temperature and precipitation in the studyregion. The correlation between seasonal NPP and seasonal precipitation and temperature is highlyconsistent with land cover spatially, and the correlation coefficient changes with the changes ofvegetation types. The analysis reveals that the related areas in land use change only take up 5.45%of the whole studied region, so the climate changes dominate the impacts on the NPP in the wholestudy region (90% of the total). However, land use plays an absolute dominative role in areas withland cover changes, accounting for 97% of the total. From 1981 to 2000, the NPP in the whole studyregion remarkably reduced due to obvious precipitation decrease and temperature rise. Between twoperiods of land use (about 10 years), the changes in climate are predicted to promote a decrease inNPP by 78 ( + -0.6) TgC, and integrated impacts of climate changes and land use to promote adecrease in NPP by 87(+-0.8) TgC.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program,2010CB951903)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41105054)the China Meteorological Administration (GYHY200706010)
文摘The historical simulation of phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ex- periments performed by the Beijing Climate Center cli- mate system model (BCC_CSM1.1) is evaluated regard- ing the time evolutions of the global and China mean sur- face air temperature (SAT) and surface climate change over China in recent decades. BCC CSM1.1 has better capability at reproducing the time evolutions of the global and China mean SAT than BCC_CSM1.0. By the year 2005, the BCC_CSM1.1 model simulates a warming am- plitude of approximately I℃ in China over the 1961- 1990 mean, which is consistent with observation. The distributions of the warming trend over China in the four seasons during 1958-2004 are basically reproduced by BCC CSM1.1, with the warmest occurring in winter. Al- though the cooling signal of Southwest China in spring is partly reproduced by BCC_CSM1.1, the cooling trend over central eastern China in summer is omitted by the model. For the precipitation change, BCC_CSM1.1 has good performance in spring, with drought in Southeast China. After removing the linear trend, the interannual correlation map between the model and the observation shows that the model has better capability at reproducing the summer SAT over China and spring precipitation over Southeast China.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41371009)the Fundamental Research Fund for the Central Universities of China (Grant No. lzujbky2013-127)
文摘Ecosystem response to climate change in high-altitude regions is a focus on global change research. Picea/Abies forests are widely distributed at high altitudes of East and Central Asia, and their distribution changes are sensitive to climate change. Humidity is an important climatic factor that affects high-altitude ecosystems; however, the relationship between distribution changes of Picea/Abies forests and millennial-scale variability of humidity is still not dear. Palynological records can provide insights into millennial-scale paleovegetation changes, which have been successfully used to reconstruct past climate change in East and Central Asia. In this study, we synthesized 24 Picea/Abies pollen and humidity/moisture changes based upon Holocene lake records in East and Central Asia in order to explore the response of high-latitude ecosystem to millennial-scale climate change. The changing pattern of Holocene lacustrine Picea/Abies pollen in arid Central Asia differs from that of monsoonal East Asia, which can be due to different millennial-scale climate change patterns between monsoonal and arid Central Asia. Then, the relationship between changes in Picea/Abies pollen and humidity/moisture conditions was examined based on a comparison of pollen and humidity/moisture records. The results indicate that millennial-scale Picea/Abies distribution changes aremainly controlled by moisture variability at high altitudes, while the temperature effect plays a minor role in Picea/Abies distribution changes. Moreover, this research proves that lacustrine Picea/Abies pollen can be used as an indicator of millennial-scale humidity/moisture evolution at high altitudes in East and Central Asia.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.31101073)National Basic Research Program of China (No.2010CB950903)+1 种基金Special Fund for Meteorological-scientific Research in the Public Interest (No.GYHY201106020)Key Projects in National Science & Technology Pillar Program during the Twelfth Five-year Plan Period (No.2011BAD32B01)
文摘As dominant biomes,forests play an important and indispensable role in adjusting the global carbon balance under climate change.Therefore,there are scientific and political implications in investigating the carbon budget of forest ecosystems and its response to climate change.Here we synthesized the most recent research progresses on the carbon cycle in terrestrial ecosystems,and applied an individual-based forest ecosystem carbon budget model for China(FORCCHN) to simulate the dynamics of the carbon fluxes of forest ecosystems in the northeastern China.The FORCCHN model was further improved and applied through adding variables and modules of precipitation(rainfall and snowfall) interception by tree crown,understory plants and litter.The results showed that the optimized FORCCHN model had a good performance in simulating the carbon budget of forest ecosystems in the northeastern China.From 1981 to 2002,the forests played a positive role in absorbing carbon dioxide.However,the capability of forest carbon sequestration had been gradually declining during the the same period.As for the average spatial distri-bution of net carbon budget,a majority of the regions were carbon sinks.Several scattered areas in the Heilongjiang Province and the Liaoning Province were identified as carbon sources.The net carbon budget was apparently more sensitive to an increase of air temperature than change of precipitation.
基金Under the auspices of National Environmental Protection Public Welfare Industry Research Fund(No.2011467032)
文摘Wetlands are sensitive to climate change, in the same time, wetlands can influence climate. This study analyzed the spa- rio-temporal characteristics of wetland change in the semi-arid zone of Northeast China from 1985 to 2010, and investigated the impact of large area of wetland change on local climate. Results showed that the total area of wetlands was on a rise in the study area. Although natural wetlands (marshes, riparians and lakes) decreased, constructed wetlands (rice fields) increased significantly, and the highest in- crease rate in many places exceeded 30%. Anthropogenic activities are major driving factors for wetland change. Wetland change pro- duced an impact on local climate, mainly on maximum temperature and precipitation during the period of May-September. The increase (or decrease) of wetland area could reduce (or increase) the increment of maximum temperature and the decrement of precipitation. The changes in both maximum temperature and precipitation corresponded with wetland change in spatial distribution. Wetland change played a more important role in moderating local climate compared to the contribution of woodland and grassland changes in the study area. Cold-humid effect of wetlands was main way to moderating local climate as well as alleviating climatic wanning and drying in the study area, and heterogeneity of underlying surface broadened the cold-humid effect of wetlands.
文摘The regional observed temperature and precipitation changes and their abruptjumps disturbed by large-scale reclamation in the Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China were studied. Meanannual temperature of the region was tending to go up and has increased by 1.2-2.2℃ over the past50 years. A warming jump of mean annual temperature of the region occurred in the 1980s, which hadan increasg amplitude of 0.9℃. Linear tendency rates of annual precipitation were negative in mostof the region. The maximum of annual precipitation decrease was 155.8mm over the past 50 years. Anabrupt decrease of regional annual precipitation happened in the middle of the 1960s, which had adecrease of 102.1mm. Based on the fact of climatic change of the Sanjiang Plain over the past 50years, it is held that the region had larger warming amplitude than that of the surrounding areas inthe recent years, which resulted from the large-scale reclamation of various kinds of wetlands.
基金Task Force 3‘Forest Resources and Plant Biodiversity’under National Mission for Sustaining Himalayan Ecosystem(NMSHE)funded by Department of Science and Technology(DST),Govt.of India for financial support(DST/SPLICE/CCP/NMSHE/TF/GBPIHED/2014[G]dated 2/09/14)to conduct the study
文摘The Himalaya represents a vast mountain system and globally valued for its significant role in regulation of global as well as regional climate that has direct impact on biodiversity and ecosystem services crucial for sustenance of millions of people in Himalaya and adjoining areas. However, mountain regions worldwide are impacted by climate change and at the same time represent distinctive area for the assessment of climate related impacts. Climate change impacts in Himalayan region have its implications on food production, natural ecosystems,retreat of glacier, water supply, human and animal health and overall human well being. The livelihood and food security of the people inhabited in region largely depend on climate sensitive sectors i.e.agriculture, livestock, forestry and their interlinkages with each other, and has the potential to break down food and nutritional security as well as livelihood support systems. People's perception and understanding of climate can be an important asset when it comes to adaptation to climate change impact;however it is not taken into consideration for the development of policy design and implementation of modern mitigation and adaptation strategies by governments and other civil society organizations.The knowledge of local people and farming communities for rural landscape management and sustainable use of bioresources is gaining credence as a key strategy to cope up with the climate change.Therefore, the present study analyzes the indigenous knowledge of local people and their perceptions on climate change, and also documented adaptation approaches at local level in mountain ecosystem of western Himalaya. The study could be useful to policy makers to design appropriate adaptation strategies to cope up with the impacts of climate change.
基金financially supported by the Program of Introducing Talents of Discipline to Universities or "111 Project" of China (B08037)
文摘Rapid economic growth in China has brought about great economic-social changes in rural areas, having considerable impact on the society in economy and environment. With a per capita possession of about 0.08 ha of cropland, Chinese farmers in rural areas adopt various ways in response to these changes in a bit to maintain their livelihood, wherein the agricultural system is facing one more options possible. To understand how rural communities have used different mechanisms to adapt to the economic and natural changes, we joined a survey in dry valleys of the Min upriver area under Maoxian county of western Sichuan province, southwestern China and visited the local people. Changes in the main crop cultivation have shown up an important means to keep up their household income. Farm households start seeking economic growth through diversified cultivating of cereal and economic crops in five lines, namely cereal, apple monoculture, apple and vegetables, plum and vegetables, mixed fruits and vegetables. These new lines mirror farmers' flexibility to cope with today's economic-social and climatic changes. The farming operation has changed all the more from a subsistence on grain to special agricultural products. Economic reforms in the early 1980 s motivated theprogress first in conversion of production from grain to fruits, and the desire to increase family income turned out to be an impetus for the subsequent events. At present, more farmers moving out of the rural areas, uneasy availability of labor force, increased opportunity cost of labors and their wages, increased farm size, and the urgent demand for the agricultural labor force, all these combine into the trend of the agricultural system of China on facing further economic-social reforms and reconstruction of the countryside across China.
基金Under the auspices of China Global Change Research Program(No.2010CB950103)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.40901099)
文摘Climate change affected the agricultural expansion and the formation of farming-grazing transitional patterns during historical periods. This study analyzed the possible range of the boundary shift of the potential suitable agriculture area in the farming-grazing transitional zone in the northeastern China during the 20th century. Based on modem weather data, 1 km-resolution land cover data, historical climatic time series, and estimation by using similar historical climatic scenes, the following was concluded: 1) The climate conditions of suitable agriculture areas in the farming-grazing transitional zone in the northeastern China between 1971 and 2000 required an average annual temperature above 1℃ or ≥ 0℃ accumulated temperature above 2500℃-2700℃, and annual precipitation above 350 mm. 2) The northern boundary of the potential suitable agriculture area during the relatively warmer period of 1890-1910 was approximately located at the position of the 1961-2000 area. The northern boundary shifted back to the south by 75 km on average during the colder period of the earlier 20th century, whereas during the modem warm period of the 1990s, the area shifted north by 100 km on average. 3) The western and eastern boundaries of the suitable agricul^re area during the heaviest drought periods between 1920s and 1930s had shifted northeast by 250 km and 125 km, respectively, contrasting to the boundaries of 1951-2008. For the wettest period, that is, the 1890s to the 1910s, the shift of western and eastern boundaries was to the southwest by 125 km and 200 km, respectively, compared with that in the 1951-2008 period. This study serves as a reference for identifying a climatically sensitive area and planning future land use and agricultural production in the study area.
基金supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences [grant numbers XDA2006010103 and XDA19070301]the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant numbers 41830650,91737205,91637313,and 41661144043]
文摘Land surface temperature(LST)is an important variable for assessing climate change and related environmental impacts observed in recent decades.Regular monitoring of LST using satellite sensors such as MODIS has the advantage of global coverage,including topographically complex regions such as Nepal.In order to assess the climatic and environmental changes,daytime and nighttime LST trend analysis from 2000 to 2017 using Terra-MODIS monthly daytime and nighttime LST datasets at seasonal and annual scales over the territory of Nepal was performed.The magnitude of the trend was quantified using ordinary linear regression,while the statistical significance of the trend was identified by the Modified Mann—Kendall test.Our findings suggest that the nighttime LST in Nepal increased more prominently compared to the daytime LST,with more pronounced warming in the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons.The annual nighttime LST increased at a rate of 0.05 K yr-1(p<0.01),while the daytime LST change was statistically insignificant.Spatial heterogeneity of the LST and LST change was observed both during the day and the night.The daytime LST remained fairly unchanged in large parts of Nepal,while a nighttime LST rise was dominant all across Nepal in the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons.Our results on LST trends and their spatial distribution can facilitate a better understanding of regional climate changes.
基金supported by the National Key Technology R&D Program(No.2007BAC03A06)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)project(No.40976006)+2 种基金the National Marine Public Welfare Research Project of China(No.201005019)Key Laboratory Project(Key Laboratory of Coastal Disasters and Defence,Ministry of Education,No.200808)Laboratory of Coastal Disasters and Defence,Ministry of Education)(No.200802)
文摘Based on the simulation with the Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Model CCSM and Ocean Model POP under the green- house gas emission scenario of the IPCC SRES A2 (IPCC, 2001), and on the earth crust subsidence and glacier melting data, the relative sea level change is obtained along the coast of China in the 21 st century. Using the SRTM elevation data the submergence of coastal low land is calculated under the extreme water level with a 100-year retum period. The total flooding areas are 98.3× 10^3 and 104.9× 10^3 km2 for 2050 and 2080, respectively. For the three regions most vulnerable to extreme sea level rise, i.e., the coast of Bohai Bay, the Yangtze River Delta together with neighboring Jiangsu Province and northern Zhejiang Province, and the Pearl River Delta, the flooded areas are 5.0× 10^3, 64.1×10^3 and 15.3 × 10^3 km2 in 2050 and 5.2 × 10^3, 67.8×10^3 and 17.2 × 10^3 km2 in 2080, respectively.