Our research topic is about the economic situation in the Middle East and North Africa （MENA） oil exporters after the global crisis in 2008. The authors tried to find the answers to the questions such as ＂How bad o...Our research topic is about the economic situation in the Middle East and North Africa （MENA） oil exporters after the global crisis in 2008. The authors tried to find the answers to the questions such as ＂How bad or good is the situation there？＂ and ＂what is the expectation about the future of the region？＂ Like other countries around the world, the MENA oil exporters, comprised of Algeria, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, United Arab Emirates, Yemen were adversely affected by the global crisis. The MENA oil exporters are recently recovering from their recession in 2009 when the global crisis was felt intensively there. GDP in the region has grown by 3.5 percent in 2010 after a low growth of 0.7 percent in 2009. The average real GDP growth excluding Libya is projected to reach 4.9 percent in 2011. Two developments mark the outlook： the unrest in the region and the surge in global fuel and food prices. For most oil exporters, the expected increase in oil prices and production volumes will lead to higher growth in 2011 and stronger fiscal and external balances, notwithstanding recent increases in government spending. The oil exporters＇ combined external current account surplus is estimated to increase. The effects of the political events in Tunisia and Egypt have spread in varying degrees to the MENA oil exporters in the region, and many of these countries are responding with public spending and job-creation measures to alleviate social tensions. The social unrest also highlights the need to pursue fundamental economic reforms--social policy, fiscal management, governance, business environment, labor markets, and financial sector access to facilitate more inclusive economic growth. While the MENA countries are generally divided into two sub-regions such as ＂oil exporters＂ and ＂oil importers＂ in the economic literature, the authors will deal with only the MENA oil exporters in this work. The negative effects of the global crisis in these countries on growth, inflation, current account balance, budget balance, and finally financial sector will be reviewed in this work and the expectations and the developments which occurred after the crisis in these countries will be dealt with especially in the context of the IMF reports.展开更多
The year 2016 marked the 25th anniversary of the end of the Cold War and the 15th anniversary of the 9/11 attack. Though international relations are constantly adjusted, the world is by no means more stable and orderl...The year 2016 marked the 25th anniversary of the end of the Cold War and the 15th anniversary of the 9/11 attack. Though international relations are constantly adjusted, the world is by no means more stable and orderly. International order reshaping triggered by the 2008 financial crisis is deepening, with chaos of various kinds popping up here and there. In the sociopolitical field, the"Trump phenomenon"and Brexit indicate serious weakening of the authority of traditional political systems and elites. In major country relations and international security, the world is witnessing the rise of emerging countries and the and fall of the West, fiercer US-Russia and Sino-US wrestling of strategic significance, and greater global and regional security risks. In global governance, while adjustment of UN-centered global governance is laboring along, national rivalries touch core issues, making global governance more urgent.展开更多
文摘Our research topic is about the economic situation in the Middle East and North Africa （MENA） oil exporters after the global crisis in 2008. The authors tried to find the answers to the questions such as ＂How bad or good is the situation there？＂ and ＂what is the expectation about the future of the region？＂ Like other countries around the world, the MENA oil exporters, comprised of Algeria, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, United Arab Emirates, Yemen were adversely affected by the global crisis. The MENA oil exporters are recently recovering from their recession in 2009 when the global crisis was felt intensively there. GDP in the region has grown by 3.5 percent in 2010 after a low growth of 0.7 percent in 2009. The average real GDP growth excluding Libya is projected to reach 4.9 percent in 2011. Two developments mark the outlook： the unrest in the region and the surge in global fuel and food prices. For most oil exporters, the expected increase in oil prices and production volumes will lead to higher growth in 2011 and stronger fiscal and external balances, notwithstanding recent increases in government spending. The oil exporters＇ combined external current account surplus is estimated to increase. The effects of the political events in Tunisia and Egypt have spread in varying degrees to the MENA oil exporters in the region, and many of these countries are responding with public spending and job-creation measures to alleviate social tensions. The social unrest also highlights the need to pursue fundamental economic reforms--social policy, fiscal management, governance, business environment, labor markets, and financial sector access to facilitate more inclusive economic growth. While the MENA countries are generally divided into two sub-regions such as ＂oil exporters＂ and ＂oil importers＂ in the economic literature, the authors will deal with only the MENA oil exporters in this work. The negative effects of the global crisis in these countries on growth, inflation, current account balance, budget balance, and finally financial sector will be reviewed in this work and the expectations and the developments which occurred after the crisis in these countries will be dealt with especially in the context of the IMF reports.
文摘The year 2016 marked the 25th anniversary of the end of the Cold War and the 15th anniversary of the 9/11 attack. Though international relations are constantly adjusted, the world is by no means more stable and orderly. International order reshaping triggered by the 2008 financial crisis is deepening, with chaos of various kinds popping up here and there. In the sociopolitical field, the"Trump phenomenon"and Brexit indicate serious weakening of the authority of traditional political systems and elites. In major country relations and international security, the world is witnessing the rise of emerging countries and the and fall of the West, fiercer US-Russia and Sino-US wrestling of strategic significance, and greater global and regional security risks. In global governance, while adjustment of UN-centered global governance is laboring along, national rivalries touch core issues, making global governance more urgent.
