基于RS/GIS的中尺度地区退耕变化及其坡度分异研究

应用遥感和地理信息系统相结合的办法,提取了黄土高原中尺度地区(延安示范区)2000-2003年间各土地利用数字图,进行动态监测,并与坡度图结合,对其土地利用及退耕合理性进行分析.结果表明,3年前后,坡耕地、疏林地、造林地、草地类间发生了用地调整.坡耕地面积大幅度减少,减少幅度为35.9%;园地增加比重达28.1%;造林地面积增大到了3年前的2.03倍;研究区生态环境质量得到改善.研究区坡度分异表明,沟沿线上以8～15°、15～25°的缓坡和稍陡坡地居多,沟沿线下以＞35°的陡沟坡和＜3°的平地比例居多.2003年的各利用类型中,70.73%的基本农田面积＜15°,63.61%的园地集中在＜25°,78.18%的乔灌林地分布在＞25°,草地则集中在＞25°的陡坡地,比重达75.49%,在地形上的分异比较合理.但是2000年坡耕地仍有64%未退耕,32.75%的面积大于侵蚀临界角25°,形成水土流失隐患.依据地形自然分异判定其合理性,加强科学规划和科技支撑是未来退耕中必需要解决的首要关键问题.

基于文脉的大尺度乡村地区发展空间对策研究——以湖州市南太湖特色村庄带发展规划为例

我国城镇化发展迈入中后期阶段,城乡关系正在从城市主导向城乡互动、城乡统筹转型。乡村地区发展需要新的思路引领和新的技术工具支撑。本文以湖州市南太湖特色村庄带规划实践为例,初步探索了跨越县域行政单元、保留有较为完整的乡村历史聚落和地域文化特征的大尺度乡村地区整体性空间规划方法。研究以文脉传承为主线,提出空间内涵认知和识别、空间魅力传承和复兴、空间布局统筹和管理三大核心对策。强调大尺度乡村地区的空间价值和特色主要体现在其整体空间结构和外部环境的发展关联、以及其自身各类空间要素的内在组织关系上。因此既要基于文脉传承开展有效的全域空间管理和特色呈现,又需要引导新的发展动力有序嵌入特色空间载体之中。

多要素影响下大尺度乡村地区历史演进规律探究——以南太湖特色村庄带为例

我国乡村地区类型多元、内涵丰富,其中有些乡村地区跨越县域行政单元、大尺度集中成片,历经漫长的历史演化,形成较为完整的乡村聚落和地域文化特征。本文以浙江省湖州市南太湖特色村庄带为例,通过实地踏勘、历史考据、空间图解等方法,重点梳理和揭示了大尺度乡村地带演化阶段划分、影响要素的提取、各要素内在的演化特征规律和动因机制。研究可为这些乡村地区特色要素内涵与形成机制的进一步发掘提供依据。

基于多目标的中尺度地区绿道选线规划方法探析——以上海市奉贤区为例

绿道是城市生态空间的重要组成部分。近年来,绿道已在国内外获得广泛的发展与实践。从国内绿道选线研究进展和中尺度地区绿道选线规划的挑战入手,构建中尺度地区的绿道选线规划技术路径。并以上海市奉贤区基于多目标的绿道选线规划为例,采用适宜性评价与GIS空间分析相结合的绿道选线方法,综合考虑政策导向的地区发展需求对绿道选线线路进行修正,最终形成兼具科学性和合理性的绿道选线规划方案。

国内外不同尺度的旱灾风险评价研究进展

作为旱灾风险管理实践的科学基础,旱灾风险评价愈来愈受到社会各界的广泛关注。在阅读大量文献的基础上,从4个不同的区域尺度对国内外旱灾风险评价研究进展作了综述。结果表明:(1)目前所有区域尺度研究中,农业旱灾风险评价研究较多;(2)地区尺度的旱灾风险评价是研究其他尺度的切入点,可为实现空间尺度上推(全球和国家尺度)和下推(县乡农户尺度)旱灾风险评价结果的转换提供依据;(3)随空间尺度从全球和大洲→国家→地区→地方尺度,旱灾风险评价的文献量逐渐增多,内容逐渐深入;(4)旱灾风险对饥荒和粮食安全的影响、农业系统和农作物承灾体的旱灾风险评价是目前研究的热点。在此基础上,指出旱灾发生频率较低但生态环境敏感区的旱灾风险评价需加强;从干旱灾害链的角度以及综合旱灾风险与脆弱性、恢复性、适应性的关系来研究旱灾风险是今后的重点。

On the criteria to create a susceptibility map to debris flow at a regional scale using Flow-R

Studies on susceptibility to debris flows at regional scale （ioo-looo km2） are important for the protection and management of mountain areas. To reach this objective, routing models, mainly based on land topography, can be used to predict susceptible areas rapidly while necessitating few input data. In this research, Flow-R model is implemented to create the susceptibility map for the debris flow of the Vizze Valley （BZ, North-Eastern Italy; 134 km^2）. The analysis considers the model application at local scale for three sub-catchments and then it explores the model upsealing at the regional scale by verifying two methods to generate the source areas of debris-flow initiation. Using data of an extreme event occurred in the Vizze Valley （4 August 2012） and historical information, the modeling verification highlights that the propagation parameters are relatively simple to set in order to obtain correct runout distances. A double DTM filtering - using a threshold for the upslope contributing area （0.1 km^2） and a threshold for the terrain-slope angle （15°） provides a satisfactory prediction of source areas and susceptibility map within the geological conditions of the Vizze Valley.

Use of Intensity Analysis to Measure Land Use Changes from 1932 to 2005 in Zhenlai County, Northeast China

Analyzing spatiotemporal dynamics of land use and land cover over time is widely recognized as important to better understand and provide solutions for social, economic, and environmental problems, especially in ecologically fragile region. In this paper, a case study was taken in Zhenlai County, which is a part of farming-pastoral ecotone of Northeast China. This study seeks to use multi-temporal satellite images and other data from various sources to analyze spatiotemporal changes from 1932 to 2005, and applied a quantitative methodology named intensity analysis in the time scale of decades at three levels: time interval, category, and transition. The findings of the case study are as follows: 1) the interval level of intensity analysis revealed that the annual rate of overall change was relatively fast in 1932–1954 and 1954–1976 time intervals. 2) The category level showed that arable land experienced less intensively gains and losses if the overall change was to have been distributed uniformly across the landscape while the gains and losses of forest land, grassland, water, settlement, wetland and other unused land were not consistent and stationary across the four time intervals. 3) The transition level illustrated that arable land expanded at the expense of grassland before 2000 while it gained intensively from wetland from 2000 to 2005. Settlement targets arable land and avoids grassland, water, wetland and other unused land. Besides, the loss of grassland was intensively targeted by arable land, forest land and wetland in the study period while the loss of wetland was targeted by water except for the time interval of 1976–2000. 4) During the early reclamation period, land use change of the study area was mainly affected by the policy, institutional and political factors, followed by the natural disasters.

Regional Scale Rainfall- and Earthquake-triggered Landslide Susceptibility Assessment in Wudu County, China

Wudu County in northwestern China frequently experiences large-scale landslide events. High-magnitude earthquakes and heavy rainfall events are the major triggering factors in the region. The aim of this research is to compare and combine landslide suseeptibility assessments of rainfall- triggered and earthquake-triggered landslide events in the study area using Geographical Information System （GIS） and a logistic regression model. Two separate susceptibility maps were produeed using inventories reflecting single landslide-triggering events, i.e., earthquakes and heavy rain storms. Two groups of landslides were utilized： one group eontaining all landslides triggered by extreme rainfall events between 1995 and 2003 and the other group containing slope failures caused by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Subsequently, the individual maps were combined to illustrate the loeations of maximum landslide probability. The use of the resulting three landslide susceptibility maps for landslide forecasting, spatial planning and for developing emergency response actions are discussed. The eombined susceptibility map illustrates the total landslide susceptibility in the study area.

Seasonal variability of Kuroshio intrusion northeast of Taiwan Island as revealed by self-organizing map

The self-organizing map method is applied to satellite-derived sea-level anomaly fields of1993-2012 to study variations of the Kuroshio intrusion northeast of Taiwan Island.Four major features are revealed,showing significant seasonal variability of the intrusion.In general,the intrusion increases(decreases) with a high(low) sea-level anomaly at the edge of the East China Sea shelf in winter(summer).Open-ocean mesoscale eddies play an additional role in modulating the seasonal variation of the intrusion.Further analyses are needed to study eddy-Kuroshio interaction dynamics.

A multiscale spatio-temporal framework to regionalize annual precipitation using k-means and self-organizing map technique

Determination of homogenous precipitation-based regions is a very important task in effective management of water resources. The present study tried to propose an effective precipitation-based regionalization methodology by conjugating both temporal pre-processing and spatial clustering approaches in a way to take advantage of multiscale properties of precipitation time series. Annual precipitation data of 51 years(1960-2010) for 31 rain gauges(RGs) were collected and used in proposed clustering approaches. Discreet wavelet transform(DWT) was used to capture the time-frequency attributes of the time series and multiscale regionalization was performed by using k-means and Self Organizing Maps(SOM) clustering techniques. Daubechies function(db) was selected as mother wavelet to decompose the precipitation time series. Also, proper boundary extensions and decomposition level were applied. Different combinations of the approximation(A) and detail(D) coefficients were used to determine the input dataset as a basis of spatial clustering. The proposed model's efficiency in spatial clustering stage was verified using three different indexes namely, Silhouette Coefficient(SC), Dunn index and Davis Bouldin index(DB). Results approved superior performance of k-means technique in comparison to SOM. It was also deduced that DWT-based regionalization methodology showed improvements in comparison to historical-based models. Cross mutual information was used to investigate the RGs of cluster 3's homogeneousness in DWT-k-means approach. Results of non-linear correlation approach verified homogeneity of cluster 3. Verifications based on mean annual precipitation values of rain gauges in each cluster also approved the capability of multiscale approach in precipitation regionalization.

Can Artificial Climate Trends in Global Reanalysis be Reduced by Dynamical Downscaling:A Case Study of China

In this study, the ability of dynamical downscaling for reduction of artificial climate trends in global reanalysis is tested in China. Dynamical downscaling is performed using a 60-km horizontal resolution Regional Integrated Environmental Model System （RIEMS） forced by the NCEP-Department of Energy （DOE） reanalysis II （NCEP-2）. The results show that this regional climate model （RCM） can not only produce dynamically consis- tent fine scale fields of atmosphere and land surface in the regional domain, but it also has the ability to minimize artificial climate trends existing in the global reanalysis to a certain extent. As compared to the observed 2-meter temperature anomaly averaged across China, our model can simulate the observed inter-annual variation and variability as well as reduce artificial climate trends in the reanalysis by approximately 0.10℃ decade-1 from 1980 to 2007. The RIEMS can effectively reduce artificial trends in global reanalysis for areas in western China, especially for regions with high altitude mountains and deserts, as well as introduce some new spurious changes in other local regions. The model simulations overesti- mated observed winter trends for most areas in eastern China with the exception of the Tibetan Plateau, and it greatly overestimated observed summer trends in the Si- chuan Basin located in southwest China. This implies that the dynamical downscaling of RCM for long-term trends has certain seasonal and regional dependencies due to imperfect physical processes and parameterizations.

Development of RAMS-CMAQ to Simulate Aerosol Optical Depth and Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing and Its Application to East Asia

The air quality modeling system RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System)-CMAQ (Models-3 Community Multi-scale Air Quality) is developed to simulate the aerosol optical depth (AOD) and aerosol direct forcing (DF). The aerosol-specific extinction, single scattering albedo, and asymmetry factor are parameterized based on Mie theory taking into account the aerosol size distribution, composition, refractive index, and water uptake of solution particles. A two-stream solar radiative model considers all gaseous molecular absorption, Rayleigh scattering, and aerosols and clouds. RAMSCMAQ is applied to simulate all major aerosol concentrations (e.g., sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, organic carbon, black carbon, fine soil, and sea salt) and AOD and DF over East Asia in 2005. To evaluate its performance, the simulated AOD values were compared with ground-based in situ measurements. The comparison shows that RAMSCMAQ performed well in most of the model domain and generally captured the observed variations. High AOD values (0.2 1.0) mainly appear in the Sichuan Basin as well as in central and southeastern China. The geographic distribution of DF generally follows the AOD distribution patterns, and the DF at the top-of-the-atmosphere is less than 25 and 20 W m 2 in clear-sky and all-sky over the Sichuan Basin. Both AOD and DF exhibit seasonal variations with lower values in July and higher ones in January The DF could obviously be impacted by high cloud fractions.

Ecological Responses to Holocene Millennial-Scale Climate Change at High Altitudes of East and Central Asia: A Case Study of Picea/Abies Pollen Changes in Lacustrine Sediments

Ecosystem response to climate change in high-altitude regions is a focus on global change research. Picea/Abies forests are widely distributed at high altitudes of East and Central Asia, and their distribution changes are sensitive to climate change. Humidity is an important climatic factor that affects high-altitude ecosystems; however, the relationship between distribution changes of Picea/Abies forests and millennial-scale variability of humidity is still not dear. Palynological records can provide insights into millennial-scale paleovegetation changes, which have been successfully used to reconstruct past climate change in East and Central Asia. In this study, we synthesized 24 Picea/Abies pollen and humidity/moisture changes based upon Holocene lake records in East and Central Asia in order to explore the response of high-latitude ecosystem to millennial-scale climate change. The changing pattern of Holocene lacustrine Picea/Abies pollen in arid Central Asia differs from that of monsoonal East Asia, which can be due to different millennial-scale climate change patterns between monsoonal and arid Central Asia. Then, the relationship between changes in Picea/Abies pollen and humidity/moisture conditions was examined based on a comparison of pollen and humidity/moisture records. The results indicate that millennial-scale Picea/Abies distribution changes aremainly controlled by moisture variability at high altitudes, while the temperature effect plays a minor role in Picea/Abies distribution changes. Moreover, this research proves that lacustrine Picea/Abies pollen can be used as an indicator of millennial-scale humidity/moisture evolution at high altitudes in East and Central Asia.

A Metapopulation Model with Patches Distributed in Two Geographical Scales

We propose a metapopulation model with two geographical scales. In a regional scale, the model describes the dynamics of a collection of habitats connected by migratory movements. In a local scale, we consider some granularity within each habitat, in the sense that each habitat is itself a collection of patches linked by dispersal. The whole ensemble can be seen as a metapopulation composed by local metapopulations. We analyze the synchronization of the model in the two geographical scales. We present an analytic criterion for synchronization where only the habitats in the regional scale evolve with the same dynamics. Through numerical simulations, we discuss the different synchronization modes. It depends on how the individuals are distributed in the local patches that compose a habitat after migration takes place in the regional scale.

Submonthly timescale oscillation characteristics of the East Asian winter monsoon and its effect on the temperature of southwest China in 2010

Using NCEP/NCAR R2 reanalysis daily data and daily meteorologicalobservational data of southwest China in 2010, this paper studied the submonthlytimescale oscillation characteristics of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and itseffect on the temperature of southwest China in 2010 by bandpass filtering, wavelettransformation, composite analysis and correlation analysis. The main conclusions areas follows: The EAWM in 2010 was dominated by low-frequency oscillations of about 7-,12-, and 30-day periods. There existed obviously negative correlation between theEAWM and the winter temperature in southwest China on submonthly, quasi-weeklyand quasi-biweekly timescales, and negative correlation was more obvious on thequasi-biweekly than the quasi-weekly timescale. There was significant difference in thedistribution of high, middle and low layer of the troposphere when the EAWM was onthe submonthly, quasi-one-week and quasi-two-week timescales in the positive andnegative phase. In the positive EAWM phase, the upper-level subtropical westerly jet isstronger and the East Asia trough is deeper, thus it is favorable for the dominance ofmore powerful north wind and lower temperature in southwest China. On the contrary,in the negative EAWM phase, the upper-level subtropical westerly jet is weaker and theEast Asia trough is shallower, thus unfavorable for the north wind and lowertemperature in southwest China.

A Study of Extratropical Transition and Re-Intensification of Typhoon Mindulle(2004)

In this study,the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU-NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) is used to simulate Typhoon Mindulle (2004) at high resolution (3-km grid size).The data from measurements show that in the upper atmosphere the existence of an upper jet is important to the transition cyclone.When Mindulle moved to the area of the upper jet entrance,where high-altitude divergence existed, the pumping of the high-altitude divergence would enhance the vertical motion and low-level cyclone convergence. The enhanced vertical motion was confirmed by the simulation results and indicated that the existence of upper divergence enhanced the vertical motion which was favorable for the maintenance of Typhoon Mindulle.The process of extratropical transition (ET) and re-intensification always accompanies the process of cold air invasion. This process enhances the baroclinicity of the atmosphere and the formation of front at high altitudes, which converts baroclinic potential energy into kinetic energy and strengthens the cyclone vortex.The distributions of equivalent potential temperature (θe) and temperature anomalies show that the warm-core of the typhoon at the tropopause aids the re-intensification of the system. As the typhoon reenters the ocean, latent heat flux (LHF) increases in the north and west and the strong reflectivity and vertical motion occur in the east and southeast,and the west.With the re-intensification of the typhoon the wind field evolves from an oval to a circle at the lower atmosphere, the area coverage by high winds increases, and the distribution of the tangential wind shows an asymmetric pattern.

Observed dryness and wetness variability in Shanghai during 1873-2005

Dryness and wetness variations on different time scales in Shanghai were analyzed using the Standardized Precipitation Index （SPI） based on monthly precipitation data for 1873-2005. The SPI on scales of 3, 6, 12 and 24 months has been calculated. The SPI on 3, 6, 12 and 24 months present 4 wet periods prevailed during 1873-1885, 1904-1923, 1938-1960 and 1983-2005, and 3 dry episodes during 1886-1903, 1924-1937 and 1961-1982. Significant periods of higher wavelet power in the SPI-24 months occurred on the time scales of 2-7-year band in around 1880-1890, 1910-1950 and 1970-1990, and at 8-15-year band in 1920-1960 and 1965-2000 respectively. Periodicities in the SOl and ENSO indices are similar to those in SPI-24 months with little difference, namely, in the SPI-24 months, there are significant periods at the 2-7- and 8-15-year bands during 1930-1940. The periodicity components in individual SPI-24 months, SOl and ENSO indices are more complicated, showing the wetness and dryness variability in Shanghai is controlled by more than one physical factors. The research results indicate that the Shanghai area has experienced dryness and wetness variability on different time scales during the past 133 years.

Reciprocal Effects of Plant-Soil Relationships at Two Spatial Scales in a Semiarid Land of Central Mexico

We studied the influence of soil heterogeneity on plant community structure in a semiarid region of Central Mexico using Bray-Curtis Ordination. The results showed that some edaphic factors, such as soil depth, organic matter, and potassium and calcium content, explained 80% of the total variation in structure of the studied communities. We found that soil resources were heterogeneously distributed in the study area, indicating that the edaphic variables considered in this study explain the existing plant community variability, moreover the presence of some shrubs as Krameria cytisoides influences the soil properties, suggesting that there is a reciprocal effect between plant and soil.

Modeling the global ionospheric total electron content with empirical orthogonal function analysis

In the present work we model the global ionospheric total electron content (TEC) with the analysis of empirical orthogonal functions (EOF). The obtained statistical eigen modes, which makeup the modeled TEC, consist of two factors: the eigen vectors mapping TEC patterns at latitude and longitude (or local time LT), and the corresponding coefficients displaying the TEC variations in different time scales, i.e., the solar cycle, the yearly (annual and semiannual) and the diurnal universal time variations. It is found that the EOF analysis can separate the TEC variations into chief processes and the first two modes illustrate the most of the ionospheric climate properties. The first mode contains both the semiannual component which shows the semiannual ionospheric anomaly and the annual component which shows the annual or non-seasonal ionospheric anomaly. The second mode contains mainly the annual component and shows the normal seasonal ionospheric variation at most latitudes and local time sectors. The annual component in the second mode also manifests seasonal anomaly of the ionosphere at higher mid-latitudes around noontime. It is concluded that the EOF analysis, as a statistical eigen mode method, is resultful in analyzing the ionospheric climatology hence can be used to construct the empirical model for the ionospheric climatology.

Optimum Solution for the Safe Drinking Water Crisis in Tala Upazila, Bangladesh

Coastal areas of Bangladesh are especially vulnerable due to their physiographic location and exposure to natural calamities. Around 35 million people living in coastal areas have no access or limited access to safe drinking water. Contamination of water sources by salinity, arsenic or iron are the principal causes of water scarcity. Rising sea levels and unevenness of climatic events due to climate change will exacerbate the situation in coastal areas, especially in the southwestern coastal zone. This study examines one of the vulnerable coastal upazila Tala at Satkhira(an 'upazila' is a medium level administrative unit in Bangladesh) in the southwestern zone of Bangladesh to understand the gravity of the problems. The study develops a GIS based multi-criteria analysis to identify suitable options and locations of fresh water as part of a current and future solution to the problems and further deterioration. To fulfill the objectives, a questionnaire-based GPS guided field survey was conducted to collect details of field level conditions in order to find a suitable solution. Because aquifers are considered the primary source of drinking water, field data have been analyzed for two distinct aquifers, one relatively shallow and one deeper, to understand aquifer quality. Potentiality of different water sources the socioeconomic status of communities, types of water use and corresponding sources and water demand are also evaluated. The analysis finds that alternative water sources that are safe are difficult to find, because both surface and groundwater-based sources are already contaminated, and there are no nearby, easily accessible safe sources. Groundwater-based sources are contaminated by arsenic, iron or salinity, and surface water-based sources are not in use due to maintenance and management issues. In some cases, surface water sources are polluted by flash flooding of high saline water during storm surges or seepage from saline water-based aquacultures. Multiple limitations identified during field observations and field data analysis were considered as an analytical parameter A GIS based multi-criteria analysis incorporated field data, including Geo-spatial and socioeconomic information for road networks, settlement locations, number of households, quality and quantity of existing water sources, water demand and business opportunities. The analysis found some potential options in distributed locations which are consistent with community demand. Suggested options made use of technologies that are already understood and commonly used by communities, like deep tubewells, PSFs(Pond Sand Filter) and WTPs(Water Treatment Plant). In the study area, PSF is the most commonly used method and to make this surface water-based technology sustainable some precautionary measurements are suggested.