基于因子分析的反洗钱地域风险分类监管

对洗钱风险的宏观分析而言,建立和完善"风险为本"的反洗钱地域风险分类监管体系,能够提高监管的针对性,有效解决地域洗钱风险的不均衡问题,保证监管资源的合理配置。以风险为本的反洗钱监管概念和必要性为出发点,探讨风险为本的反洗钱地域监管面临的现实问题,提出基于因子分析的洗钱地域风险管理的建模理论和思路,并就我国洗钱的地域风险进行探讨和分析。

对中国银行业购并重组的思考

近年来国际银行业购并浪潮对全球经济和金融产生了重要影响.目前,我国银行业也进入了结构调整的关键时期.借鉴国际经验,发现我国银行业购并重组是适应"入世"后国内外银行业激烈竞争的必然选择.

Simulation of Revised Puff Trajectory Model in Regional Atmospheric Environmental Risks

[Objective] The aim was to research application of revised puff trajectory model in atmospheric environmental risks simulation.[Method] In the research,theory of puff trajectory model for pollution diffusion in atmosphere in urban areas was analyzed and CALPUFF,a revised puff trajectory model,was applied in prediction on atmospheric environmental risks in Xining City.[Result] The simple puff trajectory model can not be applied for long-distance transport or in complex terrain and airflow field.In contrast,CALPUFF would be applied in urban areas,and complex terrain or underlying surface.With high resolution ratio,it would depict the beginning condition and detailed distribution of pollutants transport and diffusion.For prediction on atmospheric environmental risks in Xining City,northwest wind dominated in Huangshui Valley;north wind dominated in Beichuan Valley;temperature inversion occurred at high altitude.These had a significant effect on the downwind direction in Xining urban district.The simulation results indicated that puffs usually spread along Huangshui Valley and some non-steady phenomena occurred,such as blocking effect by mountains,deformation of puff by airflow field in ridges and influence of valley wind.[Conclusion] The research is of significance for precise prediction on characters,influence and extent of atmospheric environmental risks in cities.

Research on the Probability of Earthquake Occurrence in the Daduhe Drainage Area

This paper applies the Seismic Hazard Analysis method for the cities of China to research on the probability of earthquake occurrence in the Daduhe drainage area,where the cascade dam system is located.This research is based on the potential seismic source scheme of the Seismic Ground Motion Parameter Zonation Map of China(2001),and uses Poisson distribution as an earthquake occurrence model.Earthquake magnitude obeys truncated exponential distribution.The spatial distribution function of the potential seismic source zone is taken as the first-class spatial probability distribution,and the homogeneous probability distribution in the potential seismic source zone as the second-class spatial probability distribution.Considering the seismic intensity attenuation relationship of western China,we compute the occurrence probability of an earthquake around magnitude 6.0(5.5～6.5),7.0(6.5～7.5)and over 7.5 in the Daduhe drainage area,where 22 series cascade dams will be built.The results can be used for hydropower plant planning,hydropower dam site selection and seismic fortification.

Flood Risk Mitigation in the Tisza Valley by Deep Floodplain Reservoirs： The Effect on the Land Use

The actual situation of the Tisza Valley traditionally used for land farming is basically determined by the consequences of the river regulation of the nineteenth century which aimed at the extension of the intensive agriculture, by the extreme water regime of alternating periods of flood showing a deteriorating trend and drought related to the climatic change; and by several environmental problems induced mainly by the land use. The objective of the article is to prove the regional advantages of a proposed technical solution to mitigate the flood risk with a special regard to the land cover. Hydrodynamic modeling results prove that the best technical solution is given by a combination of different strategies containing the inundation of deep floodplains-areas regularly covered by water before the river regulation works and, globally, by an important mitigation of flood damages, the costs of solution would be surely covered in the longterm. By means of its natural-resembling operation, the regular water cover would allow a multiple use of water, contributing to the solution of the simultaneously existing aridity problem, and, the development of the floodplain landscape management would help improve the ecological and the economical upgrading of the region.

并未反转的全球治理——论全球化与全球治理地域性的关系

全球治理近年来出现全球性减弱而地域性和国家性增强的现象,但这并不意味着全球治理出现"倒退"或"反转"。由于全球化仍是当今世界不可逆转的潮流,因其而生的全球治理并没有丧失规范上的合法性,在实践层面,全球各地区协同治理也依然是国际政治的主流趋势。本文从经济全球化和政治上的全球治理的关系入手,论证了全球治理所具有的地域性特征。全球治理的这种地域性可以很好地解释当前全球治理中出现的"新"现象,在一定意义上,它们并非"新"现象,只是全球治理地域性特征的应有之义。