A running mean bias （RMB） correction ap- proach was applied to the forecasts of near-surface variables in a seasonal short-range ensemble forecasting experiment with 57 consecutive cases during summer 2010 in the no...A running mean bias （RMB） correction ap- proach was applied to the forecasts of near-surface variables in a seasonal short-range ensemble forecasting experiment with 57 consecutive cases during summer 2010 in the northern China region. To determine a proper training window length for calculating RMB, window lengths from 2 to 20 days were evaluated, and 16 days was taken as an optimal window length, since it receives most of the benefit from extending the window length. The raw and 16-day RMB corrected ensembles were then evaluated for their ensemble mean forecast skills. The results show that the raw ensemble has obvious bias in all near-surface variables. The RMB correction can remove the bias reasonably well, and generate an unbiased ensemble. The bias correction not only reduces the ensemble mean forecast error, but also results in a better spreaderror relationship. Moreover, two methods for computing calibrated probabilistic forecast （PF） were also evaluated through the 57 case dates： 1） using the relative frequency from the RMB-eorrected ensemble; 2） computing the forecasting probabilities based on a historical rank histogram. The first method outperforms the second one, as it can improve both the reliability and the resolution of the PFs, while the second method only has a small effect on the reliability, indicating the necessity and importance of removing the systematic errors from the ensemble.展开更多
Based on the theory of sub-national governments＇ foreign affairs, this paper analyzes the role played by China＇s local governments at the time when China＇s central government was formulating polices to establish di...Based on the theory of sub-national governments＇ foreign affairs, this paper analyzes the role played by China＇s local governments at the time when China＇s central government was formulating polices to establish diplomatic relations with South Korea. China＇s local governments, with Shandong Province in particular, made strong attempts to lobby the central government on the economic need for enlarging bilateral trade and drawing investment from South Korea. These efforts played an active role on Sino-South Korean diplomatic normalization and further advanced the realization of diplomatic contacts already underway. Shandong Province＇s case shows that sub-national governments have been playing ever more important roles in China＇s overall diplomacy since the Reform and Opening Up of the economy, which began in 1978. In the multi-fold policy-making process by the central and local governments, it appears that the central government needs to respond to the reasonable interest case for engagement made by sub-national governments. How to accommodate the policy interests of the central and sub- national government entities is an important problem facing China＇s future diplomacy.展开更多
基金supported by a project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41305099)
文摘A running mean bias （RMB） correction ap- proach was applied to the forecasts of near-surface variables in a seasonal short-range ensemble forecasting experiment with 57 consecutive cases during summer 2010 in the northern China region. To determine a proper training window length for calculating RMB, window lengths from 2 to 20 days were evaluated, and 16 days was taken as an optimal window length, since it receives most of the benefit from extending the window length. The raw and 16-day RMB corrected ensembles were then evaluated for their ensemble mean forecast skills. The results show that the raw ensemble has obvious bias in all near-surface variables. The RMB correction can remove the bias reasonably well, and generate an unbiased ensemble. The bias correction not only reduces the ensemble mean forecast error, but also results in a better spreaderror relationship. Moreover, two methods for computing calibrated probabilistic forecast （PF） were also evaluated through the 57 case dates： 1） using the relative frequency from the RMB-eorrected ensemble; 2） computing the forecasting probabilities based on a historical rank histogram. The first method outperforms the second one, as it can improve both the reliability and the resolution of the PFs, while the second method only has a small effect on the reliability, indicating the necessity and importance of removing the systematic errors from the ensemble.
基金This paper was originally presented at ＂The Tenth China＇s Korean Studies Symposium＂ held at Fudan University in Shanghai on October 24-25, 2009. The author thanks the financial support from China Postdoctoral Science Foundation and Asia Research Center of Fudan University and the author would like to thank Mr. Liu Ji-de, Professor Chen Zhi-min at Ftldan University, Professor Zhang Dong-ming at Liaoning University, Professor Yu Nai-Min at National Chengchi University, Professor Jae Ho Chung at Seoul National University, and Dr. Indira Ravindran for their helpful comments.
文摘Based on the theory of sub-national governments＇ foreign affairs, this paper analyzes the role played by China＇s local governments at the time when China＇s central government was formulating polices to establish diplomatic relations with South Korea. China＇s local governments, with Shandong Province in particular, made strong attempts to lobby the central government on the economic need for enlarging bilateral trade and drawing investment from South Korea. These efforts played an active role on Sino-South Korean diplomatic normalization and further advanced the realization of diplomatic contacts already underway. Shandong Province＇s case shows that sub-national governments have been playing ever more important roles in China＇s overall diplomacy since the Reform and Opening Up of the economy, which began in 1978. In the multi-fold policy-making process by the central and local governments, it appears that the central government needs to respond to the reasonable interest case for engagement made by sub-national governments. How to accommodate the policy interests of the central and sub- national government entities is an important problem facing China＇s future diplomacy.
