The temporal-spatial distribution of mid-small earthquakes in Italy and its surroundings from January 1 to April 5,2009 shows that there were significant foreshocks before the moderate L'Aquila earthquake of April...The temporal-spatial distribution of mid-small earthquakes in Italy and its surroundings from January 1 to April 5,2009 shows that there were significant foreshocks before the moderate L'Aquila earthquake of April 6,2009.The enhancement of frequency and intensity of small earthquakes and their concentrating tendency to the future main shock have provided a comprehensive case for digging methods of earthquake forecasting with foreshocks.展开更多
Coordinated scheduling of multimode plays a pivotal role in the rapid gathering and dissipating of passengers in transport hubs. Based on the survey data, the whole-day reaching time distribution at transfer points of...Coordinated scheduling of multimode plays a pivotal role in the rapid gathering and dissipating of passengers in transport hubs. Based on the survey data, the whole-day reaching time distribution at transfer points of passengers from the dominant mode to the connecting mode was achieved. A GI/M K/1 bulk service queuing system was constituted by putting the passengers' reaching time distribution as the input and the connecting mode as the service institution. Through queuing theory, the relationship between average queuing length under steady-state and headway of the connecting mode was achieved. By putting the minimum total cost of system as optimization objective, the headway as decision variable, a coordinated scheduling model of multimode in intermodal transit hubs was established. At last, a dynamic scheduling strategy was generated to cope with the unexpected changes of the dominant mode. The instance analysis indicates that this model can significantly reduce passengers' queuing time by approximately 17% with no apparently increase in departure frequency, which provides a useful solution for the coordinated scheduling of different transport modes in hubs.展开更多
An epidemic model with a class of nonlinear incidence rates and distributed delay is analyzed. The nonlinear incidence is used to describe the saturated or the psychological effect of certain serious epidemics on the ...An epidemic model with a class of nonlinear incidence rates and distributed delay is analyzed. The nonlinear incidence is used to describe the saturated or the psychological effect of certain serious epidemics on the community when the number of infectives is getting larger. The distributed delay is derived to describe the dynamics of infectious diseases with varying immunity. Lyapunov functionals are used to show that the diseasefree equilibrium state is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number is less than or equal to one. Moreover, it is shown that the disease is permanent if the basic reproduction number is greater than one. Furthermore, the sufficient conditions under which the endemic equilibrium is locally and globally asymptotically stable are obtained.展开更多
基金supported by the State Key Program of"Exploring Radar Tomography with Seismic Waves:4D-Mapping the Regional Continental Crustal Structureswith Artificial Seismic Sources"from the National Natural Science Foundation (40730318),China
文摘The temporal-spatial distribution of mid-small earthquakes in Italy and its surroundings from January 1 to April 5,2009 shows that there were significant foreshocks before the moderate L'Aquila earthquake of April 6,2009.The enhancement of frequency and intensity of small earthquakes and their concentrating tendency to the future main shock have provided a comprehensive case for digging methods of earthquake forecasting with foreshocks.
基金Projects(51278221,51378076)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Coordinated scheduling of multimode plays a pivotal role in the rapid gathering and dissipating of passengers in transport hubs. Based on the survey data, the whole-day reaching time distribution at transfer points of passengers from the dominant mode to the connecting mode was achieved. A GI/M K/1 bulk service queuing system was constituted by putting the passengers' reaching time distribution as the input and the connecting mode as the service institution. Through queuing theory, the relationship between average queuing length under steady-state and headway of the connecting mode was achieved. By putting the minimum total cost of system as optimization objective, the headway as decision variable, a coordinated scheduling model of multimode in intermodal transit hubs was established. At last, a dynamic scheduling strategy was generated to cope with the unexpected changes of the dominant mode. The instance analysis indicates that this model can significantly reduce passengers' queuing time by approximately 17% with no apparently increase in departure frequency, which provides a useful solution for the coordinated scheduling of different transport modes in hubs.
文摘An epidemic model with a class of nonlinear incidence rates and distributed delay is analyzed. The nonlinear incidence is used to describe the saturated or the psychological effect of certain serious epidemics on the community when the number of infectives is getting larger. The distributed delay is derived to describe the dynamics of infectious diseases with varying immunity. Lyapunov functionals are used to show that the diseasefree equilibrium state is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number is less than or equal to one. Moreover, it is shown that the disease is permanent if the basic reproduction number is greater than one. Furthermore, the sufficient conditions under which the endemic equilibrium is locally and globally asymptotically stable are obtained.
