旱灾的地气环流形势分类

旱灾与地气环流有很好的相关,根据对近50多年旱灾成因的普查,可将形成旱灾的地气环流形势分成4类:(1)大地冷涡;(2)月(季)际地温的大片负变温区;(3)大震前的大旱(旱震关系);(4)强震地热涡出现之后的地冷涡区。研究发现,大地冷涡因其波长较长,故移动缓慢,造成的干旱一般均较严重。T′_(32)的月际负变温区一般是表示该地区地下热活动减弱,故可预测下月将少雨;T′_(32)的季际负变温区,同理也可预测下季将少雨。强地震对正常地热活动是一个强干扰,我国的大旱大涝几乎均与强地震有关。

2007年地气图方法预测总结和北京奥运期间降水预测

对2007年做出的各项气候预测进行了回顾,汛期预报中预测的西北大部、淮河流域和福建3块多雨区基本正确,它们都是根据地气图的基本原理预测得到。月降水预报取得平均70.5分的好成绩,这得益于地气系统的活动规律较单纯;年度预报则基本上失败了,这是因为2008年1月我国发生了6.9级强震,破坏了地气系统的正常运行规律,使预报准确率大为降低。最后还对2008年8月的月降水预测进行了讨论。

地壳中气体运动的大尺度特征

地壳内流体的运动与地球动力学、地震、地球排气及气候变化等密切相关。本文利用我国239个气象站0～3.2m地温资料,用3种方法计算了地气界面的年平均热通量,发现30°N以南的低纬地区表现为地热的净积累,30°N以北的中高纬地区为地热净放散,其量值达到2 W/m2,表明在岩石圈中有热量从低纬输向高纬,形成地气环流。岩石圈裂隙中地下流体（地气）的运行速度要达到10～30cm/s才可完成热量的纬向输送。本文统计了2003—2007年中国大陆地热涡的逐月移动速度,发现以300～600km/月（10～20cm/s）为最多。

Possible connection between anomalous activity of Scandinavian Atmospheric Teleconnection Pattern and winter snowfall in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin of China

The temporal and spatial characteristics of winter snowfall in the Yangtze–Huaihe River Basin (YHRB) of China and its possible connection with Scandinavian Atmospheric Teleconnection Pattern (SCAND) anomalies are explored based on daily meteorological data contained in the Daily Surface Climate Dataset for China (V3.0) during the period 1960–2012. Results show that winter snowfall in the YHRB exhibits consistent anomalies over the whole region for the interannual variation during 1960–2012. Further analysis suggests that winter snowfall anomalies in the YHRB are closely linked to the anomalous wintertime SCAND activity. When there is more winter snowfall in the YHRB, SCAND is usually in a positive phase, accompanied by a strengthened Urals blocking high and East Asian trough, which is conducive to strengthened cold-air activity, intensified vertical motions, and more water vapor transport in the YHRB. In contrast, less winter snowfall in the YHRB usually happens in the negative phase of SCAND. Our results provide useful information to better understand the relevant mechanism responsible for anomalous winter snowfall in this area.

Vegetation Feedback at the Mid-Pliocene

A global atmospheric general circulation model and an asynchronously coupled global atmosphere-biome model are used to simulate vegetation feedback at the mid-Pliocene approximately 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago.For that period,the simulated vegetation differed from present conditions at 62％ of the global ice-free land surface.Vegetation feedback had little overall impact on the global climate of the mid-Pliocene.At the regional scale,however,the interactive vegetation led to statistically significant increases in annual temperature over Greenland,the high latitudes of North America,the mid-high latitudes of eastern Eurasia,and westem Tibet,and reductions in most of the land areas at low latitudes,owing to vegetation-induced changes in surface albedo.

Statistically Downscaled Summer Rainfall over the Middle-Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

The summer rainfall over the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (YRSR) has been estimated with a multi-linear regression model using principal atmospheric modes derived from a 500 hPa geopotential height and a 700 hPa zonal vapor flux over the domain of East Asia and the West Pacific.The model was developed using data from 1958 92 and validated with an independent prediction from 1993 2008.The independent prediction was efficient in predicting the YRSR with a correlation coefficient of 0.72 and a relative root mean square error of 18%.The downscaling model was applied to two general circulation models (GCMs) of Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model (FGOALS) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled climate model version 2.1 (GFDL-CM2.1) to project rainfall for present and future climate under B1 and A1B emission scenarios.The downscaled results pro-vided a closer representation of the observation compared to the raw models in the present climate.In addition,compared to the inconsistent prediction directly from dif-ferent GCMs,the downscaled results provided a consistent projection for this half-century,which indicated a clear increase in the YRSR.Under the B1 emission scenario,the rainfall could increase by an average of 11.9% until 2011 25 and 17.2% until 2036 50 from the current state;under the A1B emission scenario,rainfall could increase by an average of 15.5% until 2011 25 and 25.3% until 2036 50 from the current state.Moreover,the increased rate was faster in the following decade (2011 25) than the latter of this half-century (2036 50) under both emissions.

Performance of Regional Integrated Environment Modeling System (RIEMS) in the Simulation of Surface Air Temperature over East Asia

Regional climate models (RCMs) have the potential for more detailed surface characteristic and mesoscale modeling results than general circulation models (GCMs).These advantages have drawn significant focus on RCM development in East Asia.The Regional Integrated Environment Modeling System,version 2.0 (RIEMS2.0),has been developed from an earlier RCM,RIEMS1.0,by the Key Laboratory of Regional ClimateEnvironment for Temperate East Asia (RCE-TEA) and Nanjing University.A numerical experiment covering 1979 to 2008 (simulation duration from 1 January 1978 to 31 December 2008) with a 50-km spatial resolution was performed to test the ability of RIEMS2.0 to simulate long-term climate and climate changes in East Asia and to provide a basis for further development and applications.The simulated surface air temperature (SAT) was compared with observed meteorological data.The results show that RIEMS2.0 simulation reproduced the SAT spatial distribution in East Asia but that it was underestimated.The simulated 30-year averaged SAT was approximately 2.0°C lower than the observed SAT.The annual and interannual variations in the averaged SAT and their anomalies were both well reproduced in the model.A further analysis of three sub-regions representing different longitudinal ranges showed that there is a good correlation and consistency between the simulated results and the observed data.The annual variations,interannual variations for the averaged SAT,and the anomalies in the three sub-regions were also captured well by the model.In summary,RIEMS2.0 shows stability and does well both in simulating the long-term SAT in East Asia and in expressing sub-regional characteristics.

Subpolar Gyre Index and the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a Coupled Climate Model

The subpolar gyre index (SPG), derived from the analysis of sea surface height (SSH), is proposed to be a potential indicator for the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) based on observation as well as the Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM). We investigated the correspondence between the SPG and the AMOC in a coupled climate model. Our results confirm that the SPG can be used as an early indicator for the AMOC in the subtropical North Atlantic. Changes in the SPG are closely related to variations in the air-sea heat exchange in the Labrador Sea, and variations in deep water formation and southward dense water transport with the deep western boundary current (DWBC) in the North Atlantic.

Variability Modes of the Winter Upper-Level Wind Field over Asian MidHigh Latitude Region

In this study,the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset was used to analyze the variability modes of the winter upper-level wind field over Asian mid-high latitude region.As shown by the results,the dominant variability modes of the winter upper-level wind field over Asian mid-high latitude region are characterized by the out-of-phase variation in the intensity of the subtropical and temperate jets over East Asia and the meridional shift of the subtropical jet axis,on interannual and multiannual scales,respectively.The first leading variability mode can be used as a good measure to represent the integral variation of atmospheric general circulation in Asian mid-latitude region.Composite analyses suggest that the first leading variability mode of the winter upper-level wind field is intimately related to the atmospheric circulation and temperature anomalies in the northern hemispheric mid-latitude region.

ENSO cycle and climate anomaly in China

The inter-annual variability of the tropical Pacific Subsurface Ocean Temperature Anomaly （SOTA） and the associated anomalous atmospheric circulation over the Asian North Pacific during the E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） were investigated using National Centers for Environmental Prediction/ National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP/NCAR） atmospheric reanalysis data and simple ocean data simulation （SODA）. The relationship between the ENSO and the climate of China was revealed. The main results indicated the following： 1） there are two ENSO modes acting on the subsurface tropical Pacific. The first mode is related to the mature phase of ENSO, which mainly appears during winter. The second mode is associated with a transition stage of the ENSO developing or decaying, which mainly occurs during summer; 2） during the mature phase of E1Nifio, the meridionality of the atmosphere in the mid-high latitude increases, the Aleutian low and high pressure ridge over Lake Baikal strengthens, northerly winds prevail in northern China, and precipitation in northern China decreases significantly. The ridge of the Ural High strengthens during the decaying phase of E1 Nifio, as atmospheric circulation is sustained during winter, and the northerly wind anomaly appears in northern China during summer. Due to the ascending branch of the Walker circulation over the western Pacific, the western Pacific Subtropical High becomes weaker, and south-southeasterly winds prevail over southern China. As a result, less rainfall occurs over northern China and more rainfall over the Changjiang River basin and the southwestern and eastern region of Inner Mongolia. The flood disaster that occurred south of Changjiang River can be attributed to this. The La Nifm event causes an opposite, but weaker effect; 3） the ENSO cycle can influence climate anomalies within China via zonal and meridional heat transport. This is known as the ＂atmospheric-bridge＂, where the energy anomaly within the tropical Pacific transfers to the mid-high latitude in the northern Pacific through Hadley cells and Rossby waves, and to the western Pacific-eastern Indian Ocean through Walker circulation. This research also discusses the special air-sea boundary processes during the ENSO events in the tropical Pacific, and indicates that the influence of the subsurface water of the tropical Pacific on the atmospheric circulation may be realized through the sea surface temperature anomalies of the mixed water, which contact the atmosphere and transfer the anomalous heat and moisture to the atmosphere directly. Moreover, the reason for the heavy flood within the Changjiang River during the summer of 1998 is reviewed in this paper.

Impact of European Black Carbon on East Asian Summer Climate

The remote response of the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） to European black carbon （EUBC） aerosols was studied by using an ensemble of sensitivity experiments with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory （GFDL） atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM） Atmospheric Model version 2.1 （AM2.1）.The results show that EUBC causes an enhanced EASM.The resulted enhanced southwesterly brings more moisture supply from the Bay of Bengal,which causes an increase in precipitation over the Yangtze River valley,northeastem China,the eastern part of the Yellow River valley,and the Tibetan Plateau.Diagnostic examination suggests that EUBC induces enhanced tropospheric heating over most of the Eurasian Continent through a propagating wave train and horizontal air temperature advection.This phenomenon results in intensified thermal contrast between land and ocean,which accounts for the enhanced EASM.Moreover,reductions in EUBC emission in 1992 may have contributed to decadal weakening of the EASM in the early 1990s.

Changes in Air Temperatures and Atmosphere Circulation in High Mountainous Parts of Bulgaria for the Period 1941-2008

Changes of air temperatures and atmosphere circulation at three high mountainous stations in Bulgaria are investigated for the period of 1941-2008.The three stations are located on peaks Musala,Cherni vrah and Botev,where air temperature data have good quality.Some missing data were recovered using the method of differences. A significant mean annual air temperature rise happened in high mountainous parts of Bulgaria- the warming is in the order of 0.7°C for the entire period.The increase is very prominent particularly in the last 30 years.Main contributors to this overall tendency are summer months-June,July and August.To some degree,January also could be included in this group.November trend shows temperature rise at the beginning of the investigated period.One of the causes for such a tendency is atmosphere circulation in respective months.It also shows signs of considerable reorganization in both winter and summer.There is an increase of the cases of warm atmosphere patterns typical for winter, summer and autumn seasons in Bulgaria.Meridional circulation has essential significance for air temperatures during the cold half of the year.In January and June atmosphere circulation has a substantial influence on the thermal regime of air in high mountains of Bulgaria.In July,August and November this influence is reduced.There are no cycles in air temperatures for the investigated period.

Influence on shallow ground water by nitrogen in polluted river

The main purpose of the research is to discuss the influence on ground water by NH4-N in polluted river and river bed.In the lab-scale experiment three kinds of natural sand were chosen as infiltration medium,and polluted rivers were simulated by domestic sewage,after 10-month sand column test it was found that NH_4-N came to adsorption sa- turation on the 17th day in coarse sand and on the 130～140th day in medium sand,then had a higher effluent concentration because of desorption.It is concluded that NH_4-N eas- ily moved to ground water.When the concentration of NH_4-N in Liangshui River were 46.86,26.95 mg/L,that in groundwater are less than 1.10 mg/L.It is found that Liangshui River have a little influence on groundwater because of bottom mud,thickness and char- acter of the infiltration medium under the river bed and seepage quantity of river water. Clean water leaching test states that after the silt is cleared away and clean water is poured,NH_4-N in the penetration media under the polluted river is obviously carried into ground water,and ground water is polluted secondly.

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF SSTA IMPACTS OVER THE GLOBAL OCEAN ON THE ANOMALOUS CIRCULATION OVER EURASIA IN JANUARY 2008

In this paper, we discussed the features of atmospheric circulations over Eurasia as a response to sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTAs） over the tropical Indian Ocean, the equatorial Pacific, Kuroshio and the North Atlantic. Our results are shown as follows： （1） CAM3.0, driven by the combined SSTAs over the four oceanic regions, can simulate well the features of anomalous atmospheric circulations over Eurasia in January 2008, indicating that the effects of the SSTAs over these four regions were one of the key causes of the anomalous systems over Eurasia. （2） The SSTAs over each key region contributed to the intensification of blocking over the Urals Mountains and a main East Asian trough. However, the influence of the SSTAs over individual oceanic regions differed from one another in other aspects. The SSTAs over the North Atlantic had an impact on the 500-hPa anomalous height （Z500A） over the middle-high latitudes and had a somewhat smaller effect over the low latitudes. For the warm SSTAs over Kuroshio, the subtropical high was much stronger, spread farther north than usual, and had an anomalous easterly that dominated the northwest Pacific Ocean. The warm SSTAs over the tropical Indian Ocean could have caused a negative Z500A from West Asia to Middle Asia, a remarkably anomalous southwesterly from the Indian Ocean to the south of China and an anomalous anticyclone circulation over the South China Sea-Philippine Sea region. Because of the La Nifia event, the winter monsoon was stronger than normal, with an anomalously cooler northerly over the southeastern coastal areas of China. （3） The combined effects of the SSTAs over the four key regions were likely more important to the atmospheric circulation anomalies of January 2008 over Eurasia than the effects of individual or partly combined SSTAS. This unique SSTA distribution possibly led to the circulation anomalies over Eurasia in January 2008, especially the atmospheric circulation anomalies over the subtropics, which were more similar to those of the winter E1 Nifio events than to the circulation anomalies following La Nifia.

PREVIOUS CONVECTION ANOMALY IN AUTUMN AND WINTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE GENERAL CIRCULATION OVER EAST ASIA IN WINTER AND SPRING AND APRIL PRECIPITATION IN SHANDONG

Using OLR and 850 hPa and 200 hPa wind fields data (1979 - 2006), this paper diagnoses the characteristics of convection over the tropical area in preceding autumns and winters in association with April precipitation anomalies in Shandong province. It is found that preceding convection anomalies over the Western Pacific Warm Pool in December have close relationships with the April precipitation in Shandong. Further analysis of the relationship with the general circulation over the East Asia shows that the convection anomaly over the Western Pacific Warm Pool has close relationships with the Main East Asian Trough, the Hadley cell over East Asia and the Walker cell. The characteristics of East Asian atmospheric circulation anomalies accompanied with stronger (weaker) convection are consistent with those of less (more) April precipitation anomalies in Shandong. Therefore, the convection anomaly over the tropics in December may be an important indicator for April precipitation in Shandong.

Arctic Oscillation Responses to Black Carbon Aerosols Emitted from Major Regions

The responses of the Arctic Oscillation(AO) to global black carbon(BC) and BC emitted from major regions were compared using the atmospheric general circulation model Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory(GFDL) atmospheric general circulation model(AGCM) Atmospheric Model version 2.1(AM2.1). The results indicated that global BC could induce positive-phase AO responses, characterized by negative responses over the polar cap on 500 h Pa height fields, and zonal mean sea level pressure(SLP) decreasing while zonal wind increasing at 60°, with the opposite responses over midlatitudes. The AO indices distribution also shifted towards positive values. East Asian BC had similar impacts to that of global BC, while the responses to European BC were of opposite sign. South Asian BC and North American BC did not affect the AO significantly. Based on a simple linear assumption, we roughly estimated that the global BC emission increase could explain approximately 5% of the observed positive AO trend of +0.32 per decade during 1960 to 2000.

Response of Northern Hemispheric Air Temperature to Arctic Sea Ice Decline

Two numerical experiments were performed by using the Community Atmosphere Model version 3 （CAM3） with different sea ice datasets to assess the con- tribution of the decline of Arctic sea ice to warming in the Northern Hemisphere. One observed sea ice cover data; experiment was driven by for the other one, the authors used the sea ice data of the 4xCO2 scenario simulated by the fourth-generation European Centre Hamburg atmos- pheric general circulation Model of Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Italy （1NGV ECHAM4）. The comparison of the two experiments indicates that the de- cline of the Arctic sea ice leads to a dramatic wanning over the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, char- acterized by a maximum warming of more than 26~C over the Arctic region. The significant warming is closely re- lated to the enhanced atmospheric heat source. A 40-60 W m-2 increase in the apparent heat source was simulated in winter due to the decline of Arctic sea ice. In contrast, no significant change was found in the atmospheric ap- parent heat source in summer. As a result, the summer temperature change induced by the decline of Arctic sea ice appears to be weak. This study suggests that accurate sea ice cover data is crucial for future climate projection of air temperature in high latitudes.

Calculation of stratosphere–troposphere exchange in East Asia cut-off lows:cases from the Lagrangian perspective

In this study,the authors focus on the cut-off low pressure systems（COLs）lingering over East Asia in late spring and early summer and quantify the two-way stratosphere–troposphere exchange（STE）by 3D trajectory integrations,achieved using a revised version of the UK Universities Global Atmospheric Modelling Programme Offline Trajectory Code（Version 3）.By selecting 10 typical COLs and calculating the cross-tropopause air mass fluxes,it is found that stratosphere-to-troposphere transport（STT）fluxes exist in the center of COLs;and in the periphery of the COL center,troposphereto-stratosphere transport（TST）fluxes and STT fluxes are distributed alternately.Net transport fluxes in COLs are from stratosphere to troposphere,and the magnitude is about 10-4 kg m-2 s-1.The ratio between the area-averaged STT and TST fluxes increases with increasing strength of the COLs.By adopting appropriate residence time,the spurious transports are effectively excluded.Finally,the authors compare the results with previous studies,and find that the cross-tropopause fluxes（CTFs）induced by COLs are about one to two orders of magnitude larger than global CTFs.COLs play a significant role in local,rapid air mass exchanges,although they may only be responsible for a fraction of the total STE.

Subthermocline anticyclonic gyre east of Mindanao and its relationship with the Mindanao Undercurrent

The quasi-permanent anticyclonic gyre （ACG） east of Mindanao is a dominant feature of the subthermocline circulation in the southem Philippine Sea, and it is believed closely associated with the continuous northward alongshore flow of the Mindanao Undercurrent （MUC）. In this study, the structure and variability of this ACG were investigated using the 1950-2012 output of the Oceanic General Circulation Model for the Earth Simulator （OFES）, which can reproduce well the structure of the climatological intermediate-layer circulation and satellite-observed sea level variations in the southern Philippine Sea. Between 26.8-27.3 ao, the ACG covers a large area from the Mindanao coast to 131 ~E and from 3~N to 10~N. Its anticyclonic flow structure is unrelated to the surface Halmahera Eddy. The eddy-resolving simulation of the OFES revealed that the ACG consists of two components. The southern ACG （SACG） is centered at -6~N, while the northern ACG （NACG） is centered at -10~N. Seasonal and interannual variations of the ACG are linked to the variations of the northward MUC transport along the Mindanao coast, and the role of the SACG is more important than the NACG. Stronger （weaker） ACGs lead to greater （smaller） MUC transport. On the interannual timescale, the SACG shows a spectrum peak at 4-8 years, while the NACG has enhanced power within the 3-5-year band. A lead-lag correlation analysis indicates that interannual variations of the ACGs and the MUC transport are partly associated with the E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation. Possible causes for the ACG variability are discussed.

Inter-decadal variations of springtime rainfall over southern China mainland for 1979-2004 and its relationship with Eurasian snow

This study analyzes the inter-decadal variations of rainfall over southern China in spring (March-April-May) using the observed precipitation data for 1979-2004. The result shows that the variations of spring rainfall over southeastern China are opposite to those over and southwestern China in both inter-annual and inter-decadal time scales. The precipitation over south- ern China exhibits an apparent inter-decadal shift in the late 1980s. The accumulated spring rainfall has reduced 30% over southeastern China after the late 1980s, whereas it has increased twice as much over southwestern China. The atmospheric circulations related to this shift show that an abnormal high at lower and middle troposphere appears over Asian middle and high latitudes, accompanied by stronger-than-normal northerly wind over eastern China. Consequently, the wet air flows from tropical oceans are weakened over southern China, resulting in less rainfall over southeastern China and more rainfall over southwestern China. Furthermore, the anomalous atmospheric circulation over Asian middle and high latitudes is closely related to the inter-decadal downward shift of Eurasian spring snow in the late 1980s, indicating that the inter-decadal shift of Eurasian spring snow in the late 1980s is probably an important factor in the decadal shift of spring rainfall over southern China.