Annual Consultation on the Likelihood of Earthquakes in Continental China: Its Scientific and Practical Merits

Since the 1970s, Chinese seismologists have started to conduct the Annual Consultation on the Likelihood of Coming Earthquakes in the Next Year. This approach has unique scientific and practical merits either as an active response to the social needs in the situation that earthquake prediction research meets many difficulties, or as a real forward prediction test persistently conducted for 1/3 century. It is a pity that such an approach has not been well-known by international seismological community, and the scientific merits of such an endeavor is sometimes regrettably underestimated.

Storm surge disaster evaluation model based on an artificial neural network

Back propagation is employed to forecast the current of a storm with various characteristics of storm surge; the technique is thus important in disaster forecasting. One of the most fuzzy types of information in the prediction of geological calamity is handled employing the information diffusion method. First, a single-step prediction model and neural network prediction model are employed to collect influential information used to predict the extreme tide level. Second, information is obtained using the information diffusion method, which improves the precision of risk recognition when there is insufficient information. Experiments demonstrate that the method proposed in this paper is simple and effective and provides better forecast results than other methods. Future work will focus on a more precise forecast model.

Advanced prediction for multiple disaster sources of laneway under complicated geological conditions

The driving safety in the laneway is often controlled by multiple disaster sources which include fault fracture zone, water-bearing body, goaf and collapse column. The advanced prediction of them has become a hotspot. Based on analysis of physical characteristics of the disaster sources and comparative evaluation of accuracy of the main advanced geophysical detection methods, we proposed a comprehen- sive judging criterion that tectonic interface can be judged by the elastic wave energy anomaly, strata water abundance can be discriminated by apparent resistivity response difference and establish a reason- able advanced prediction system. The results show that the concealed disaster sources are detected effec- tively with the accuracy rate of 80% if we use advanced prediction methods of integrated geophysics combined with correction of seismic and electromagnetic parameters, moreover, applying geological data, we may then distinguish types of the disaster sources and fulfill the qualitative forecast. Therefore, the advanced prediction system pays an important referential and instructive role in laneway driving project.

Learning and Progressing Through Scientific Practices—Commemorating the 90th Anniversary of the Haiyuan Earthquake and Working to Improve the Ability of Earthquake Prediction and Seismic Hazard Reduction

The great Haiyuan earthquake occurred at 20:06:09 on December 16,1920 in the south of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region.The magnitude of this earthquake is 8.5,listed as one of the three greatest earthquakes to ever occur in Chinese continent.This devastating earthquake killed about 230,000 people according to previous reports.Recent studies show that total casualties may have reached 270,000.The study of this earthquake using modern scientific and technological methods is the first in the history of earthquake research in China.Significant breakthroughs took place in the middle of last century.The earthquake surface rupture,with 200km in length and prominent left-lateral strike-slip displacement,was discovered.The first monograph on the Haiyuan earthquake was published.In the 1980s,innovative large-scale geological mapping technology for active faults was developed during studies on the Haiyuan earthquake surface ruptures,with the publication of the first large-scale map of the Haiyuan active fault.Quantitative studies were carried out on the fine structure and geometry of the fault zone,Holocene slip rate,co-seismic displacement,paleoearthquake and recurrence intervals and future earthquake risk assessment.The innovative studies also included rupture propagation along the strike-slip fault,evolution of pull-apart basins,determination of total displacement of the strike-slip fault,transition equilibrium between strike-slip displacement along its major strand and crustal shortening at the end of the strike-slip fault,and the mechanism of deformation on Liupan Mountain.On the occasion of the 90th anniversary of the Haiyuan earthquake,careful retrospect of scientific progress achieved during the recent 20 years would be helpful in providing further direction in the study of active faults and earthquake hazard reduction.While taking this occasion to remember those lost by the Haiyuan earthquake,we aim to make greater contributions to earthquake prediction and seismic hazard reduction.