地球信息科学研究的进展——记IGU-CMGS & IWGIS2004会议在京召开

1 IGU-CMGS&IWGIS会议简况 国际地理联合会(IGU)地理系统建模委员会(CMGS)与中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所(IGSNRR)资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室(LREIS)联合举办的"国际地球信息与地理系统建模会议暨第五届北京国际地理信息系统研讨会(International Conference on Geo-informatics & Geographical Systems Modeling and Fifth Beijing International Workshop in GIS,简称IGU-CMGS＆IWGIS/Beijing2004)",2004年4月2～4日在北京中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所成功举行.

Modelling spatial vagueness based on type-2 fuzzy set

The modelling and formal characterization of spatial vagueness plays an increasingly important role in the imple- mentation of Geographic Information System (GIS). The concepts involved in spatial objects of GIS have been investigated and acknowledged as being vague and ambiguous. Models and methods which describe and handle fuzzy or vague (rather than crisp or determinate) spatial objects, will be more necessary in GIS. This paper proposes a new method for modelling spatial vagueness based on type-2 fuzzy set, which is distinguished from the traditional type-1 fuzzy methods and more suitable for describing and implementing the vague concepts and objects in GIS.

Relocation Selection for Poverty Alleviation:Factor Analysis and GIS Modeling

Resettlement is considered a major policy measure in two major Chinese policy programs,the "Great Development of the West" and poverty alleviation in the new century,and the "New Countryside Development".The selection of the target location of resettlement sites for poverty-stricken villages is of critical importance to the success of resettlement projects,yet the selection process is challenged by the need for analyzing a variety of contributing factors,and the need for many rounds of tedious data processing.So in this paper we present an in-depth analysis of the major factors and data processing model concerning mountainous povertystricken villages,which also takes a major part of China's poor villages.Our analysis shows the following factors bear the most importance in resettlement selection:1) topography:candidate areas should have slope less than 25 degrees and altitude less than 2400 meters.2) accessibility:close to market conventions places and transportation facilities.3) farming resources:with abundant land and water resources.4) non-intrusiveness:interests of receiving villages should be considered and negative impact minimized.A simple measure could be having the candidate area 1000 m away from the receiving residents.5) Minimal ecological and political footprint:candidate areas shall not conflict with nature conservation areas or nationally planned key land use projects.6) Social and cultural compatibility:residents will better off if relocated in the same county,considering language,religion,ethnic culture and other factors.Taking Makuadi,Lushui County of Nujiang Prefecture as a case study,we demonstrate how GIS analysis and modeling tools can be used in the selection process of resettlement projects in mountainous areas.

Land-Cover Change Monitoring in Obuasi, Ghana： An Integration of Earth Observation, Geoinformation Systems and Stochastic Modelling

For over twenty years, Obuasi Municipality, Ghana, has experienced land-cover change arising from gold mining and urbanisation. This project quantified the land-cover changes that have taken place and projected likely future land-cover. An integration of EO （earth observation）, GIS （geographical information science） and Stochastic Modelling was examined. Post-classification Change Detection employed Landsat TM or ETM＋ images in 1986, 2002 and 2008. Subsequently, Markov Chain Analysis projected the land-cover distribution for 2020. Seven broad land-use and land-cover classes were identified and mapped, namely： built-up areas, mine sites tailing ponds barren land forestland farmland and rangeland. The results obtained for the 2008 to 2020 projection revealed a continuous expansion of built-up areas （1.63%）, mine sites （0.89%） and farmland （3.4%）, and a reduction of forestland （4.17%） and rangeland （2.59%）. Despite the advent of very high resolution satellite imagery, this use of EO and GIS technology focussed on low-cost and lower resolution satellite imagery, coupled with Markov Modelling and was found to be beneficial in describing and analysing land-cover change processes in the study area, and was hence potentially useful for strategic planning purposes.

System Dynamics Modeling for Sustainable Water Management of a Coastal Area in Shandong Province, China

Water is one of the basic materials in human existence and the development of society and economy. Its sustainable management has always been an eternal subject for the management of human society and also a complex systemic problem. How to take advantages of water has been a big event in such an agricultural country like China. As economically developed areas, coastal areas are facing water shortage problems due to the rapid economic and social development and inappropriate and unsustainable water management measures. To fully understand and study such problems faced by the coastal areas needs a systematic and integrated framework to consider the various social-economic, natural and engineering factors that affect the sustainable development of water in those areas. The SD （system dynamics） methodology, which is an approach that has been successfully used in solving complex systematic problems in general, and in solving water management problems in particular for more than 50 years, was applied to a typical coastal area, Longkou City in Shandong Province of China, to study and analyze the future sustainable water management of this city. Then the quantitative modeling and analysis of the water development were carried out through scenario analysis. Four different scenarios （business as usual, economic development, water resources protection, and comprehensive） were designed by changing the values of decision-making variables. The total water demand in 2030 of these four scenarios are 0.455 billion m3, 0.793 billion m3, 0.412 billion m3 and 0.487 billion m3, respectively; the corresponding water deficit of these scenarios are 0.292 billion m3, 0.634 billion m3, 0.254 billion m3 and 0.329 billion m3, respectively. The comparison results indicated that the comprehensive scenario is the optimal one among these designed scenarios. To totally solve the water shortage problem with the economy developed in Longkou City needs to take more effective measures to reduce water consumption and improve water conservation technologies.

Sensitivity studies of a high accuracy surface modeling method

The sensitivities of the initial value and the sampling information to the accuracy of a high accuracy surface modeling(HASM) are investigated and the implementations of this new modeling method are modified and enhanced. Based on the fundamental theorem of surface theory, HASM is developed to correct the error produced in geographical information system and ecological modeling process. However, the earlier version of HASM is theoretically incomplete and its initial value must be produced by other surface modeling methods, such as spline, which limit its promotion. In other words, we must use other interpolators to drive HASM. According to the fundamental theorem of surface theory, we modify HASM, namely HASM.MOD, by adding another important nonlinear equation to make it independent of other methods and, at the same time, have a complete and solid theory foundation. Two mathematic surfaces and monthly mean temperature of 1951–2010 are used to validate the effectiveness of the new method. Experiments show that the modified version of HASM is insensitive to the selection of initial value which is particular important for HASM. We analyze the sensitivities of sampling error and sampling ratio to the simulation accuracy of HASM.MOD. It is found that sampling information plays an important role in the simulation accuracy of HASM.MOD. Another feature of the modified version of HASM is that it is theoretically perfect as it considers the third equation of the surface theory which reflects the local warping of the surface. The modified HASM may be useful with a wide range of spatial interpolation as it would no longer rely on other interpolation methods.

Grid systems for geographic modelling and simulation:A review

Geography requires a comprehensive understanding of both natural and human factors,as well as their interactions.Due to the complexity and multiplicity of geographic problems,various theories and methods for geographic modelling and simulation have been proposed.Currently,geography has entered an era in which quantitative analysis and modelling are essential for understanding the mechanisms of geographic processes.As the basic idea of quantitative spatial analysis,the specified space often needs to be partitioned by a series of small computational units(cells),i.e.,grids.Thus,there is a close relationship between the grids and geographic modelling.This article reviews the mainstream and typical grids used for modelling and simulation.In addition to classification,the derived theories and technologies,including grid generation methods,data organization strategies,multi-dimensional querying methods,and grid adaptation techniques,are discussed.For integrated geographic simulation to explore comprehensive geographic problems,we argued that it is reasonable to build bridges among different types of grids(e.g.,transformation strategies),and more powerful grids that can support multi-type of numerical computation are urgently needed.