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冕洞逐日运行图在地磁骚扰预报中的应用
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作者 牛增良 何大经 魏民军 《电波科学学报》 EI CSCD 1999年第4期462-468,共7页
着重对澳大利亚FLEURS天文台太阳扇形射束东西扫描资料进行了分析,并据此采用计算机处理系统建立起日面上冕洞位置逐日运行图。然后我们向冕洞逐日运行图输入了太阳活动低年的部分冕洞数据。
关键词 冕洞 地磁骚扰预报 逐日运行图
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国内外空间天气短期预报和警报及其现状 被引量:2
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作者 赵海娟 占腊生 戎永辉 《天文研究与技术》 CSCD 北大核心 2004年第1期28-46,共19页
综述了空间天气短期预报和警报所研究的内容和与之相对应的研究方法。同时,介绍了目前国内外在空间天气短期预报和警报方面的研究现状,及目前国内外从事这方面研究的主要机构或组织的概况。
关键词 太阳活动 空间天气 天气短期预报 地磁预报
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Design and implementation of low-cost geomagnetic field monitoring equipment for high-density deployment
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作者 Sun Lu-Qiang Bai Xian-Fu +3 位作者 Kang Jian Zeng Ning Zhu Hong Zhang Ming-Dong 《Applied Geophysics》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第3期505-512,618,共9页
The observation of geomagnetic field variations is an important approach to studying earthquake precursors.Since 1987,the China Earthquake Administration has explored this seismomagnetic relationship.In particular,the... The observation of geomagnetic field variations is an important approach to studying earthquake precursors.Since 1987,the China Earthquake Administration has explored this seismomagnetic relationship.In particular,they studied local magnetic field anomalies over the Chinese mainland for earthquake prediction.Owing to the years of research on the seismomagnetic relationship,earthquake prediction experts have concluded that the compressive magnetic effect,tectonic magnetic effect,electric magnetic fluid effect,and other factors contribute to preearthquake magnetic anomalies.However,this involves a small magnitude of magnetic field changes.It is difficult to relate them to the abnormal changes of the extremely large magnetic field in regions with extreme earthquakes owing to the high cost of professional geomagnetic equipment,thereby limiting large-scale deployment.Moreover,it is difficult to obtain strong magnetic field changes before an earthquake.The Tianjin Earthquake Agency has developed low-cost geomagnetic field observation equipment through the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei geomagnetic equipment test project.The new system was used to test the availability of equipment and determine the findings based on big data.. 展开更多
关键词 geomagnetic field earthquake prediction low cost high density big data
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地震预报值得研究
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作者 弗罗因德 苏小兰 《国际地震动态》 2000年第4期27-30,共4页
关键词 地震预报 误报 地磁预报 地震研究
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利用“ISF”方法于地磁扰动事件的预报试验 被引量:3
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作者 魏奉思 徐亚 +1 位作者 冯学尚 范全林 《中国科学(E辑)》 CSCD 北大核心 2003年第5期447-451,共5页
以1966~1982年期间有关太阳活动、行星际扰动和地磁扰动的观测为基础,综合行星际扰动过程的物理模型并运用模糊数学概念,提出一种预报由太阳风暴吹向地球而引起的地磁扰动的“ISF”方法.利用该方法对1980-1998年间24个较大的、曾引起... 以1966~1982年期间有关太阳活动、行星际扰动和地磁扰动的观测为基础,综合行星际扰动过程的物理模型并运用模糊数学概念,提出一种预报由太阳风暴吹向地球而引起的地磁扰动的“ISF”方法.利用该方法对1980-1998年间24个较大的、曾引起空间灾害事件的地磁暴进行了预报试验,在试验中考虑了每个扰动事件的三维传播特性、搜寻每个射电源的最佳贴近度和磁场南、北向分量的影响.主要结果是:(i)磁扰开始时间的预报值T预与观测值T观比较,相对误差△T预/T观≤10%的事件,占总事件的45.8%;△T预/T观≤30%的事件,占总事件的78.3%;△T预/T观>30%的事件,只占总事件的21.7%.(ii)磁扰幅度的预报,相对误差△Kp,预/Kp,观≤10%的事件,占总事件数的41.67%;△Kp,预/Kp,观≤30%的事件,占总事件数的79%;△Kp,预/Kp,观≤45%的事件,占总事件数的100%.作为一个例子,1998年4-5月事件的预报试验表明△T预/T观=7.4%,△ΣKp,预/ΣKp,观=15.3%.这表明该预报方法对空间天气事件中的地磁扰动预报有改善. 展开更多
关键词 空间灾害性天气 地磁扰动预报 “ISF”方法 天气预报 地磁 日地物理学
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Study on the Phenomenon of Geomagnetic Low-value Displacement before Moderately Strong Earthquakes in Gansu
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作者 Zhang Suping Feng Jiangang 《Earthquake Research in China》 2009年第2期200-209,共10页
This paper analyzes the distribution characteristics of geomagnetic low-value displacement in Gansu and its adjacent areas from 1995 to 2003 on the basis of the data of the daily amplitude minimum value time of the ge... This paper analyzes the distribution characteristics of geomagnetic low-value displacement in Gansu and its adjacent areas from 1995 to 2003 on the basis of the data of the daily amplitude minimum value time of the geomagnetic vertical component. It is shown that in addition to the changing rules of geomagnetic low-value displacement itself, there is a better correlation between geomagnetic low-value displacement and the occurrence of moderately strong earthquakes. There appeared to be geomagnetic low-value displacement before the moderately strong earthquakes in Gansu in the 9 years from 1995 to 2003. This result indicates that geomagnetic low-value displacement is of instructive significance for earthquake prediction to some extents. 展开更多
关键词 GANSU Geomagnetic vertical component Geomagnetic low-value displacement Moderately strong earthquake
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Improved method to derive equivalent current systems from global MHD simulations 被引量:3
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作者 ZHANG JiaoJiao WANG Chi TANG BinBin 《Science China Earth Sciences》 SCIE EI CAS 2014年第1期167-173,共7页
Derivation of equivalent current systems(ECS)from a global magnetospheric magnetohydrodynamics(MHD)model is very useful in studying magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling,ground induction effects,and space weather forecast... Derivation of equivalent current systems(ECS)from a global magnetospheric magnetohydrodynamics(MHD)model is very useful in studying magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling,ground induction effects,and space weather forecast.In this study we introduce an improved method to derive the ECS from a global MHD model,which takes account of the obliqueness of the magnetic field lines.By comparing the ECS derived from this improved method and the previous method,we find that the main characteristics of the ECS derived from the two methods are generally consistent with each other,but the eastward-westward component of the geomagnetic perturbation calculated from the ECS derived from the improved method is much stronger than that from the previous method.We then compare the geomagnetic perturbation as a function of the interplanetary magnetic field(IMF)clock angle calculated from the ECS derived from both methods with the observations.The comparison indicates that the improved method can improve the performance of the simulation.Furthermore,it is found that the incomplete counterbalance of the geomagnetic effect produced by the ionospheric poloidal current and field-aligned current(FAC)contributes to most of the eastward-westward component of geomagnetic perturbation. 展开更多
关键词 equivalent current systems global MHD model improved method
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Is a higher correlation necessary for a more accurate prediction? 被引量:1
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作者 DU ZhanLe WANG HuaNing 《Science China(Physics,Mechanics & Astronomy)》 SCIE EI CAS 2011年第1期172-175,共4页
A higher correlation tends to yield a more accurate prediction,so that a correlation as high as possible has been searched for and employed in the prediction of solar activity.Instead of using geomagnetic activity dur... A higher correlation tends to yield a more accurate prediction,so that a correlation as high as possible has been searched for and employed in the prediction of solar activity.Instead of using geomagnetic activity during the descending phase of the solar cycle,the minimum annual aa index (aa min) is used as an indicator for the ensuing maximum amplitude (R m) of the sunspot cycle.A four-cycle periodicity is roughly shown in the correlation between R m and aa min.The widely accepted Ohl's precursor prediction method often fails due to the prediction error relative to its estimated uncertainty.An accurate prediction depends on the positive variation of the correlation rather than a higher correlation.Previous experiences by using this method indicate that a prediction for the next cycle,R m (24)=80 ± 17,is likely to fail,implying that the sunspot maximum of Cycle 24 may be either smaller than 63 or greater than 97. 展开更多
关键词 solar activity sun spots solar cycles
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