The observation of geomagnetic field variations is an important approach to studying earthquake precursors.Since 1987,the China Earthquake Administration has explored this seismomagnetic relationship.In particular,the...The observation of geomagnetic field variations is an important approach to studying earthquake precursors.Since 1987,the China Earthquake Administration has explored this seismomagnetic relationship.In particular,they studied local magnetic field anomalies over the Chinese mainland for earthquake prediction.Owing to the years of research on the seismomagnetic relationship,earthquake prediction experts have concluded that the compressive magnetic effect,tectonic magnetic effect,electric magnetic fluid effect,and other factors contribute to preearthquake magnetic anomalies.However,this involves a small magnitude of magnetic field changes.It is difficult to relate them to the abnormal changes of the extremely large magnetic field in regions with extreme earthquakes owing to the high cost of professional geomagnetic equipment,thereby limiting large-scale deployment.Moreover,it is difficult to obtain strong magnetic field changes before an earthquake.The Tianjin Earthquake Agency has developed low-cost geomagnetic field observation equipment through the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei geomagnetic equipment test project.The new system was used to test the availability of equipment and determine the findings based on big data..展开更多
This paper analyzes the distribution characteristics of geomagnetic low-value displacement in Gansu and its adjacent areas from 1995 to 2003 on the basis of the data of the daily amplitude minimum value time of the ge...This paper analyzes the distribution characteristics of geomagnetic low-value displacement in Gansu and its adjacent areas from 1995 to 2003 on the basis of the data of the daily amplitude minimum value time of the geomagnetic vertical component. It is shown that in addition to the changing rules of geomagnetic low-value displacement itself, there is a better correlation between geomagnetic low-value displacement and the occurrence of moderately strong earthquakes. There appeared to be geomagnetic low-value displacement before the moderately strong earthquakes in Gansu in the 9 years from 1995 to 2003. This result indicates that geomagnetic low-value displacement is of instructive significance for earthquake prediction to some extents.展开更多
Derivation of equivalent current systems(ECS)from a global magnetospheric magnetohydrodynamics(MHD)model is very useful in studying magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling,ground induction effects,and space weather forecast...Derivation of equivalent current systems(ECS)from a global magnetospheric magnetohydrodynamics(MHD)model is very useful in studying magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling,ground induction effects,and space weather forecast.In this study we introduce an improved method to derive the ECS from a global MHD model,which takes account of the obliqueness of the magnetic field lines.By comparing the ECS derived from this improved method and the previous method,we find that the main characteristics of the ECS derived from the two methods are generally consistent with each other,but the eastward-westward component of the geomagnetic perturbation calculated from the ECS derived from the improved method is much stronger than that from the previous method.We then compare the geomagnetic perturbation as a function of the interplanetary magnetic field(IMF)clock angle calculated from the ECS derived from both methods with the observations.The comparison indicates that the improved method can improve the performance of the simulation.Furthermore,it is found that the incomplete counterbalance of the geomagnetic effect produced by the ionospheric poloidal current and field-aligned current(FAC)contributes to most of the eastward-westward component of geomagnetic perturbation.展开更多
A higher correlation tends to yield a more accurate prediction,so that a correlation as high as possible has been searched for and employed in the prediction of solar activity.Instead of using geomagnetic activity dur...A higher correlation tends to yield a more accurate prediction,so that a correlation as high as possible has been searched for and employed in the prediction of solar activity.Instead of using geomagnetic activity during the descending phase of the solar cycle,the minimum annual aa index (aa min) is used as an indicator for the ensuing maximum amplitude (R m) of the sunspot cycle.A four-cycle periodicity is roughly shown in the correlation between R m and aa min.The widely accepted Ohl's precursor prediction method often fails due to the prediction error relative to its estimated uncertainty.An accurate prediction depends on the positive variation of the correlation rather than a higher correlation.Previous experiences by using this method indicate that a prediction for the next cycle,R m (24)=80 ± 17,is likely to fail,implying that the sunspot maximum of Cycle 24 may be either smaller than 63 or greater than 97.展开更多
基金supported by the Spark Program of Earthquake Science and Technology(No.XH23003C).
文摘The observation of geomagnetic field variations is an important approach to studying earthquake precursors.Since 1987,the China Earthquake Administration has explored this seismomagnetic relationship.In particular,they studied local magnetic field anomalies over the Chinese mainland for earthquake prediction.Owing to the years of research on the seismomagnetic relationship,earthquake prediction experts have concluded that the compressive magnetic effect,tectonic magnetic effect,electric magnetic fluid effect,and other factors contribute to preearthquake magnetic anomalies.However,this involves a small magnitude of magnetic field changes.It is difficult to relate them to the abnormal changes of the extremely large magnetic field in regions with extreme earthquakes owing to the high cost of professional geomagnetic equipment,thereby limiting large-scale deployment.Moreover,it is difficult to obtain strong magnetic field changes before an earthquake.The Tianjin Earthquake Agency has developed low-cost geomagnetic field observation equipment through the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei geomagnetic equipment test project.The new system was used to test the availability of equipment and determine the findings based on big data..
基金sponsored by the Natural Science Foundation of Gansu Province (3ZS061-A25-008),China
文摘This paper analyzes the distribution characteristics of geomagnetic low-value displacement in Gansu and its adjacent areas from 1995 to 2003 on the basis of the data of the daily amplitude minimum value time of the geomagnetic vertical component. It is shown that in addition to the changing rules of geomagnetic low-value displacement itself, there is a better correlation between geomagnetic low-value displacement and the occurrence of moderately strong earthquakes. There appeared to be geomagnetic low-value displacement before the moderately strong earthquakes in Gansu in the 9 years from 1995 to 2003. This result indicates that geomagnetic low-value displacement is of instructive significance for earthquake prediction to some extents.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2012CB825602)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41231067&41204110) in part by the Specialized Research Fund for State Key Laboratories of China
文摘Derivation of equivalent current systems(ECS)from a global magnetospheric magnetohydrodynamics(MHD)model is very useful in studying magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling,ground induction effects,and space weather forecast.In this study we introduce an improved method to derive the ECS from a global MHD model,which takes account of the obliqueness of the magnetic field lines.By comparing the ECS derived from this improved method and the previous method,we find that the main characteristics of the ECS derived from the two methods are generally consistent with each other,but the eastward-westward component of the geomagnetic perturbation calculated from the ECS derived from the improved method is much stronger than that from the previous method.We then compare the geomagnetic perturbation as a function of the interplanetary magnetic field(IMF)clock angle calculated from the ECS derived from both methods with the observations.The comparison indicates that the improved method can improve the performance of the simulation.Furthermore,it is found that the incomplete counterbalance of the geomagnetic effect produced by the ionospheric poloidal current and field-aligned current(FAC)contributes to most of the eastward-westward component of geomagnetic perturbation.
基金supported by the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No.KGCX3-SYW-403-10)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.10973020,10673017 and 40890161)
文摘A higher correlation tends to yield a more accurate prediction,so that a correlation as high as possible has been searched for and employed in the prediction of solar activity.Instead of using geomagnetic activity during the descending phase of the solar cycle,the minimum annual aa index (aa min) is used as an indicator for the ensuing maximum amplitude (R m) of the sunspot cycle.A four-cycle periodicity is roughly shown in the correlation between R m and aa min.The widely accepted Ohl's precursor prediction method often fails due to the prediction error relative to its estimated uncertainty.An accurate prediction depends on the positive variation of the correlation rather than a higher correlation.Previous experiences by using this method indicate that a prediction for the next cycle,R m (24)=80 ± 17,is likely to fail,implying that the sunspot maximum of Cycle 24 may be either smaller than 63 or greater than 97.