据中国地震台网测定，2014年2月12日17时19分在新疆维吾尔自治区和田地区于田县（36．1°N，82．5°E）发生 MS 7．3地震，震源深度12 km．于田 MS 7．3地震前，新疆地区5、6级地震异常活跃．2011年6月-2014年1月连续发生了23次...据中国地震台网测定，2014年2月12日17时19分在新疆维吾尔自治区和田地区于田县（36．1°N，82．5°E）发生 MS 7．3地震，震源深度12 km．于田 MS 7．3地震前，新疆地区5、6级地震异常活跃．2011年6月-2014年1月连续发生了23次5级以上地震，这些地震在时间上呈连发态势、在空间上呈多带分布．2011年年底发现了这组地震活动异常现象，讨论了其对新疆地区未来发生7级地震的地震前兆预测意义．在跟踪研究的基础上，对新疆强震发生趋势提出了前瞻性的动态预测意见，较为准确地把握了2012-2013年新疆中强地震活动趋势和预测了2014年新疆发生7级地震的危险性。展开更多
Earthquake precursor data have been used as an important basis for earthquake prediction.In this study,a recurrent neural network(RNN)architecture with long short-term memory(LSTM)units is utilized to develop a predic...Earthquake precursor data have been used as an important basis for earthquake prediction.In this study,a recurrent neural network(RNN)architecture with long short-term memory(LSTM)units is utilized to develop a predictive model for normal data.Furthermore,the prediction errors from the predictive models are used to indicate normal or abnormal behavior.An additional advantage of using the LSTM networks is that the earthquake precursor data can be directly fed into the network without any elaborate preprocessing as required by other approaches.Furthermore,no prior information on abnormal data is needed by these networks as they are trained only using normal data.Experiments using three groups of real data were conducted to compare the anomaly detection results of the proposed method with those of manual recognition.The comparison results indicated that the proposed LSTM network achieves promising results and is viable for detecting anomalies in earthquake precursor data.展开更多
By scanning modulated or un-modulated earthquakes spatio-temporally in the region of Sichuan-Yunnan,short-term non-stationary seismic precursory patterns were extracted with significant difference and the characterist...By scanning modulated or un-modulated earthquakes spatio-temporally in the region of Sichuan-Yunnan,short-term non-stationary seismic precursory patterns were extracted with significant difference and the characteristic of non-stationary short-term seismic anomalies were analyzed as well as prediction efficiency of modulated small earthquakes before a strong earthquake. Besides,small earthquake modulation ratios near the region of the epicenter were calculated and sorted by time. The results indicated that there were significant effects using the modulated earthquake method to predict earthquakes greater than MS6. 0 in a short time. Before the MS8. 0 Wenchuan earthquake,there were obvious short-term precursory seismicity gap patterns of modulated small earthquakes.展开更多
文摘据中国地震台网测定，2014年2月12日17时19分在新疆维吾尔自治区和田地区于田县（36．1°N，82．5°E）发生 MS 7．3地震，震源深度12 km．于田 MS 7．3地震前，新疆地区5、6级地震异常活跃．2011年6月-2014年1月连续发生了23次5级以上地震，这些地震在时间上呈连发态势、在空间上呈多带分布．2011年年底发现了这组地震活动异常现象，讨论了其对新疆地区未来发生7级地震的地震前兆预测意义．在跟踪研究的基础上，对新疆强震发生趋势提出了前瞻性的动态预测意见，较为准确地把握了2012-2013年新疆中强地震活动趋势和预测了2014年新疆发生7级地震的危险性。
基金supported by the Science for Earthquake Resilience of China(No.XH18027)Research and Development of Comprehensive Geophysical Field Observing Instrument in China's Mainland(No.Y201703)Research Fund Project of Shandong Earthquake Agency(Nos.JJ1505Y and JJ1602)
文摘Earthquake precursor data have been used as an important basis for earthquake prediction.In this study,a recurrent neural network(RNN)architecture with long short-term memory(LSTM)units is utilized to develop a predictive model for normal data.Furthermore,the prediction errors from the predictive models are used to indicate normal or abnormal behavior.An additional advantage of using the LSTM networks is that the earthquake precursor data can be directly fed into the network without any elaborate preprocessing as required by other approaches.Furthermore,no prior information on abnormal data is needed by these networks as they are trained only using normal data.Experiments using three groups of real data were conducted to compare the anomaly detection results of the proposed method with those of manual recognition.The comparison results indicated that the proposed LSTM network achieves promising results and is viable for detecting anomalies in earthquake precursor data.
基金supported by the National Basic ResearchProgram (973 Program),entitled Global deep geophysical field and the relation between its geodynamic effect and Wenchuan Earthquake
文摘By scanning modulated or un-modulated earthquakes spatio-temporally in the region of Sichuan-Yunnan,short-term non-stationary seismic precursory patterns were extracted with significant difference and the characteristic of non-stationary short-term seismic anomalies were analyzed as well as prediction efficiency of modulated small earthquakes before a strong earthquake. Besides,small earthquake modulation ratios near the region of the epicenter were calculated and sorted by time. The results indicated that there were significant effects using the modulated earthquake method to predict earthquakes greater than MS6. 0 in a short time. Before the MS8. 0 Wenchuan earthquake,there were obvious short-term precursory seismicity gap patterns of modulated small earthquakes.
