Seismic Prediction of Prolific Oil Zones in Carbonate Reservoirs with Extremely Low Porosity and Permeability under Salt

The Carboniferous reservoir in KJ oilfield is a carbonate reservoir with extremely low porosity and permeability and high-pressure. The reservoir has severe heterogeneity, is deeply buried, has complex master control factors, is covered with thick salt, all of which result in the serious distortion of reflection time and amplitudes under the salt, the poor seismic imaging, and the low S/N ratio and resolution. The key to developing this kind of reservoir is to correctly predict the distribution of highly profitable oil zones. In this paper we start by analyzing the master control factors, perform seismic-log calibration, optimize the seismic attributes indicating the lithofacies, karst, petrophysical properties, and fractures, and combine these results with the seismic, geology, log, oil reservoir engineering, and well data. We decompose the seismic prediction into six key areas： structural interpretation, prediction of lithofacies, karst, petrophysical properties, fractures, and then perform an integrated assessment. First, based on building the models of faults and fractures, sedimentary facies, and karst, we predict the distribution of the most favorable reservoir zones qualitatively. Then, using multi-parameter inversion and integrated multi-attribute analysis, we predict the favorable reservoir distribution quantitatively and semi-quantitatively to clarify the distribution of high-yield zones. We finally have a reliable basis for optimal selection of exploration and development targets.

协作——社会主义新闻事业的本质特征

年初,坝上张北、尚义发生强烈地震,当夜,我和同事就赶赴灾区采访,在那里度过了终生难忘的20个日日夜夜。作为刚踏入报社大门的年轻记者,这次采访感受颇多。 此次地震面积波及2000多平方公里,应报道的东西很多,时效性又很强,新闻线索非常重要。

A Preliminary Study on the Datong Fault Belt

The Datong fault belt is a NE trending fault in the northern Qinghai-Xizang （Tibet） Plateau and controls the boundary of the Xining Basin and Datong Basin. It consists of the Maziying- Miaogou （F1） fault and the Laoye Mountain-Nanmenxia fault （F2）. There is obvious displacement in vertical direction along the belt. The field investigation results show that this belt has long-term activity. There are several meters long crushed zones and veins along the fault side in the basement rock. On the fault section, the Cambria system thrusts over the red- brick-colored Quaternary Period gravel, and there is a fault gouge of several centimeters thick developed on the fault plane. The fault gouge date （ESR） on the fault plane is 610 ± 61ka. The covering deluvial loess is not dislocated, and the OSL result is 14.6 ± 1.5ka. So it can be concluded that the fault belt was active in the middle Pleistocene, but inactive in the late Pleistocene according to the age data and geomorphologic features. Interior formations of the Datong basin features fold with the major axis orienting northwest. According to the relation of fault and fold deformation, Datong fault is a trausversal tear, which is due to uneven compression of the folds in different parts and NNE trending regional compressive stress. It is common among the NE trending faults in the northeast of Qinghai-Xizang （Tibet） Plateau. These NE trending faults aren＇t large, and most are located in the active plate. They are all nearly vertical to the axis of the folds and compressive basins.

Effect of Aftershocks on Assessment of Seismic Hazard for Hebei Seismic Zone,China

In this paper, the earthquake hazard parameters (λ m,b and M max) from the maximum likelihood method for the raw catalogue and declustered catalogues have been used to discuss the effect of the aftershocks on the earthquake hazard estimation. The declustered catalogues have been compiled from the raw catalogues by deleting the aftershocks in different time interval after main shock according to the criteria for the aftershock activity period. As an example, Hebei seismic zone is taken to show the effect of the aftershock on the earthquake hazard assessment because three strong earthquakes with the aftershocks occurred from 1966 to 1976. The results have been shown that the effect of the aftershocks on the parameters λ m,b is significant. The difference between the clustered and declustered catalogues has reached in seismic activity rate and recurrence period, at most, 45% and 90%, respectively. But the difference in M max is smaller. Based on this, the suggestion that the aftershocks should be omitted in the estimation of the earthquake hazard could be made, but how long the aftershocks activity duration is still left to the future research.

Fast algorithm and numerical simulation for ray-tracing in 3D structure

Beginning with the method of whole path iterative ray-tracing and according to the positive definiteness of the coefficient matrix of the systems of linear equations, a symmetry olock tridiagonal matrix was decomposed into the product of block bidiagonal triangular matrix and its transpose by means of Cholesky decomposition. Then an algorithm for solving systems of block bidiagonal triangular linear equations was given, which is not necessary to treat with the zero elements out of banded systems. A fast algorithm for solving the systems of symmetry block tridiagonal linear equations was deduced, which can quicken the speed of ray-tracing. Finally, the simulation based on this algorithm for ray-tracing in three dimensional media was carried out. Meanwhile, the segmentally-iterative ray-tracing method and banded method for solving the systems of block tridiagonal linear equations were compared in the same model mentioned above. The convergence condition was assumed that the L-2 norm summation for mk, 1 and mk. 2 in the whole ray path was limited in 10-6. And the calculating speeds of these methods were compared. The results show that the calculating speed of this algorithm is faster than that of conventional method and the calculated results are accurate enough. In addition, its precision can be controlled according to the requirement of ray-tracing.

The Statistical Analysis of Migration of Strong Earthquakes─Taking the North China Region as an Example

The migration of strong earthquakes is an important research topic because the migration phenomena reflect partly the seismic mechanism and involve the prediction of tendency of seismic activity. Research on migration of strong earthquakes has mostly focused on finding the phenomena. Some attempts on getting regularity were comparatively subjective. This paper suggests that there should be indices of migration in earthquake dataset and the indexes should have statistical meaning if there is regularity in the migration of strong earthquakes. In this study, three derivative attributes of migration, i.e., migration orientation, migration distance and migration time interval, were statistically analyzed. Results in the North China region show that the migration of strong earthquakes has statistical meaning. There is a dominant migration orientation (W by S to E by N), a dominant distance (≤100km and on the confines of 300～700km), and a dominant time interval (≤1a and on the confines of 3～4a). The results also show that the migration will differ slightly with different magnitude range or earthquake activity phase.

Research on the Probability of Earthquake Occurrence in the Daduhe Drainage Area

This paper applies the Seismic Hazard Analysis method for the cities of China to research on the probability of earthquake occurrence in the Daduhe drainage area,where the cascade dam system is located.This research is based on the potential seismic source scheme of the Seismic Ground Motion Parameter Zonation Map of China(2001),and uses Poisson distribution as an earthquake occurrence model.Earthquake magnitude obeys truncated exponential distribution.The spatial distribution function of the potential seismic source zone is taken as the first-class spatial probability distribution,and the homogeneous probability distribution in the potential seismic source zone as the second-class spatial probability distribution.Considering the seismic intensity attenuation relationship of western China,we compute the occurrence probability of an earthquake around magnitude 6.0(5.5～6.5),7.0(6.5～7.5)and over 7.5 in the Daduhe drainage area,where 22 series cascade dams will be built.The results can be used for hydropower plant planning,hydropower dam site selection and seismic fortification.

Some thoughts on seismotectonics of major earthquake occurrence zones in China

A major earthquake occurrence zone means a place where M ≥6 events have occurred since the Holocene and similar shocks may happen again in the future. The dynamic context of the major earthquake occurrence zones in China is primarily associated with the NNE-directed push of the India plate, next with the westward subduction of the Pacific plate. The Chinese mainland is a grand mosaic structure of many crust blocks bounded by faults and sutures. When it is suffered from boundary stresses, deformation takes place along these faults or sutures while the block interiors remain relatively stable or intact. Since the Quaternary, for example, left slip on the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault zone in southwestern China has produced a number of fault-depression basins in extensional areas during periods Q1 and Q2. In the Q3, the change of stress orientation and enhancement of tectonic movement made faults of varied trends link each other, and continued to be active till present day, producing active fanlt zones in this region. Usually major earthquakes occur at some special locations on these active fault zones. During these events, in the epicenter areas experience intensive deformation character- ized by large-amplitude rise and fall of neighboring sections, generation of horst-graben systems and dammed rivers. The studies on palaeoearthquakes suggest that major shocks of close magnitudes often repeated for several times at a same place. By comparison of the Chi-Chi, Taiwan event in 1999 and Yuza, Yunnan event in 1955, including contours of accelerations and intensities, destruction of buildings, and in contrast to the Xigeda formation in southwestern China, a sandwich model is established to account for the mechanism of deformation caused by major earthquakes. This model consists of three layers, i.e. the two walls of a fault and the ruptured zone intercalated between them. This ruptured zone is just the loci where stress is built up and released, and serves as a channel for seismic waves.

Surface Rupture and Coseismic Displacement of the M_S7.1 Yushu Earthquake

On April 14, 2010, a devastating earthquake measured 7.1 on the Richter scale struck Yushu county, Qinghai Province, China. Field geological investigation and remote sensing interpretation show that this earthquake generated an inverse ＂L-shaped＂ surface rupture zone, approximately 50km long. The surface rupture zone can be divided into three segments. Between the northern and middle segments of the surface rupture, there is a 16km-long segment, where no rupture was observed. The middle and the southern segments are arranged in a left-step manner, and there are right-step en echelon ruptures developed in the stepovers. The seismogenic structure is the Yushu fault, which is dominated by strike-slip with a small amount of thrust component. The earthquake results from the differential movements between the southern Qiangtang Block and northern Bayan Har Block. The earthquake recurrence interval is 185a^108a. Along an approximately 20km-long part of the Garze-Yushu fault, between the southern surface rupture of Yushu Ms7. 1 earthquake and the 1896 earthquake, there is no surface rupture, its seismic risk needs further research.

Seismic modelling of tracked-vehicle signals for monitoring and verifi cation

To better understand characteristics of seismic signals of tracked vehicles measured when passing a sensor line,we numerically modelled force-pulse responses of a layered soil that is similar in its seismic properties to that found at the original measurement site.The vertical-force pulses from the road wheels rolling over the track elements are fitted to the measured ones.Single-pulse seismic waves vary with distance due to diff erent wave types,refl ections at layer boundaries,vehicle velocity and relative position of the left and right track elements.They are computed by a modelling program and superposed at sensor positions with the appropriate slant distance and time shift for each track element.These sum signals are in qualitative agreement with those from the original measurements.However,they are several magnitudes weaker and much smoother.Furthermore,higher frequencies are damped much less at larger distances.Due to the large variability of the sum signals,recognition of tracked-vehicle types exclusively through their seismic signals seems diffi cult.

Research on the Seismotectonic Zones and Seismicity State in the Southern Xinjiang Region

Based on the studies of earthquake activity, tectonic movement, crustal shortening rate, fault activity, local stress field and historical characteristics of strong earthquake activities in Xinjiang, we divide the south part of Xinjiang into 4 seismotectonic zones, namely, the eastern segment of south Tianshan seismic belt, the Kalpin block, the Kashi-Wuqia junction zone, and the west Kunlun Mountains seismic belt. Using earthquake catalogues from Xinjiang since 1900, and on the basis of integrity analysis of earthquake records in different magnitude ranges, the seismicity state of different seismotectonic zones is analyzed quantificationaUy by calculating the mean value of annual strain energy release, annual rate of earthquakes with different lower limits of magnitude, b-value, and the parameter m of accelerating strain release model. The characteristic indexes of seismicity state for each of the seismic tectonic zones are then determined, which provide a quantitative basis for earthquake tendency analysis and judgment.

Main Factors Affecting the Distribution of the Macroscopic Destruction Field of Earthquake

It is proposed that some possible macroseismic epicenters can be determined quickly from the relationship that the microseismic epicenters located by instruments bear with faults. Based on these so-called macroseismic epicenters, we can make fast seismic hazard estimation after a shock by use of the empirical distribution model of seismic intensity. In comparison with the method that uses the microseismic epicenters directly, this approach can increase the precision of fast seismic hazard estimation. Statistical analysis of 133 main earthquakes in China was made. The result shows that the deviation distance between the microseismic epicenter and macroseismic epicenter falls within the range of 35 km for 88 % earthquakes of the total and within the range of 35 to 75 km for the remaining ones. Then, we can take the area that has the microseismic epicenter as its center and is 35 km in radius as the area for emphatic analysis, and take the area within 75 km around the microseismic epicenter as the area for general analysis. The relation between the 66 earthquake cases on the N-S Seismic Belt in China and the spatial distribution characteristics of faults and the results of focal mechanism solution were analyzed in detail. We know from the analysis that the error of instrumental epicenter determination is not the only factor that gives effects to the deviation of the macroseismic epicenter. In addition to it, the fault size, fault distribution, fault activity, fault intersection types, earthquake magnitude, etc. are also main affecting factors. By sorting out, processing and analyzing these affecting factors, the principle and procedures for quickly determining the possible position of the macroseismic epicenter were set up. Taking these as a basis and establishing a nationwide database of faults that contains relevant factors, it is possible to apply this method in practical fast estimation of seismic hazard.

Seismogram Analysis and Fitting of Three Earthquakes,West Papua,Recorded at Stations ENH and KMI,China

The S wave velocity structure of the earth below Eastern Southeast Asia has been investigated by analyzing the seismogram from surface wave to multiple depth waves in the time domain and three Cartesian components simultaneously.The wave passes across the front area of subduction zone between the Philippine plate and the Asian plate.The main data are waveform comparisons,instead of the arrival times.The synthetic seismogram is calculated using the GEMINI method.The synthetic seismogram constructed by PREMAN global earth model deviates greatly from the measured one.To solve this problem,corrections are needed for the β speed structure.Corrections cover the gradient change of β_h,which turns from negative to positive in upper mantle layers as in the PREMAN,change of earth crust depth and change of zero order coefficients of β velocity function in all earth mantle layers.So,the fitting is obtained,as well as the arrival time or the waveform of Love and Rayleigh surface waves,the S wave and the repetitive depth waves ScS_2 and ScS_3.This result reveals that the Southeast Asia,being stretched due to tectonic release,has a mantle in some parts with negative anomaly of S wave velocity and vertical anisotropy in all earth mantle layers.

Analysis on Completeness of Small Earthquake Data in the Northeast Seismic Zone and Its Influence on Seismicity Parameters

Taking the northeast seismic zone as an example and based on the magnitude-frequency distribution principles of the G-R relationship and the study on the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the minimum magnitude of completeness M C in each time interval,this paper makes a statistical analysis on the seismicity parameters of the research area and explores the influence of the completeness of small earthquake data on the seismicity parameters and seismic hazard analysis.It shows that the completeness analysis of the regional small earthquakes data provides a possible means for obtaining more accurate seismicity parameters that can better represent the actual regional seismicity level for areas of low seismicity.The research methods of this article and its conclusion can be used as a reference for the completeness analysis of earthquake data and seismic activity research.

The Study of Paleoearthquakes on the Weihe Fault Zone

It is indicated by historical records and the exploratory trench on the Weihe fault that the Yaodian-Zhangjiawan segment of the Weihe fault zone has experienced a historical earthquake and 3 paleoearthquake events in the past 9110a. The historical earthquake, namely, event Ⅳ, occurred between 1487 and 1568 AD. The date of paleoseismic event Ⅰ is （9110 ＋ 90） a, and the ages of events Ⅱ and Ⅲ are unknown. The coseismic vertical displacement of events Ⅰ, Ⅱ and Ⅲ is 0.5m, 0.5m and 0.2m, respectively. The exploratory trench also indicates that the Yaodian-Zhangjiawan segment of the Weihe fault was active in the Holocene.

An Analysis on Correlativity between Large Earthquakes in the Hindu Kush-Pamir and Tienshan Seismic Zone

In this paper,we introduce the tectonic setting,historical earthquake focal mechanisms and geodynamic environment of Tienshan and its neighboring regions, and draw a conclusion that large earthquakes in the Tienshan seismic zone are governed mainly by the pushing from Hindu Kush-Pamir syntax. Secondly,the relationship of large earthquakes in the Hindu Kush-Pamir region and the Tienshan seismic zone is investigated,and synchronization features are found existing in the grouped large earthquakes between the large earthquakes in two regions. The relationship between intermediate-focus large earthquakes in Hindu Kush-Pamir and shallow large earthquakes in the Tienshan seismic zone is also discussed. The same synchronization characteristics are found,and the intensity and frequency of intermediate-focus earthquakes are fiercer, while large earthquakes in the Tienshan seismic zone are more intense,with a wider distribution range. The above results confirm the geodynamic correlativity between Hindu Kush-Pamir and the Tienshan seismic zone from the viewpoint of seismicity.

The Migration Characteristics of Strong Earthquakes on the North-South Seismic Belt and Its Relation with the South Asia Seismic Belt

Migration of strong earthquakes (M≥7.0) along the North-South Seismic Belt of China since 1500 AD shows three patterns: Approximately equal time and distance interval migration from N to S, varied patterns of migration from S to N and grouped strong earthquake activity in a certain period over the entire seismic belt. Analysis of strong earthquakes in the past hundred years shows that the seismicity on the North-South Seismic Belt is also associated with strong earthquake activities on the South Asia Seismic Belt which extends from Myanmar to Sumatra, Indonesia. Strong earthquakes on the former belt often lag several months or years behind the quakes occurring on the later belt. So, after the occurrence of the December 26, 2004 M_S8.7 great earthquake off the western coast of Sumatra, Indonesia, the possibility of occurrence of strong earthquakes on the North-South Seismic Belt of China cannot be ignored. The above-mentioned migration characteristics of strong earthquakes are related to the northeastward collision and subduction of the India Plate as well as the interaction between the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau and the stable and hard Ordos and Alashan Massifs at its northeastern margin.

Characteristics of Late Quaternary Activity of the Gadê Segment in the Madoi-Gadê Fault Zone

Madoi-Gade fault is an active fault in the Bayan Har block. According to field investigation, there is an earthquake surface rupture fairly well preserved on the Gade segment of the Madoi-Gade fault zone. The length of the rupture is approximately 50km, with a general strike of NW. The maximum horizontal sinistral displacement is about 7.6m and the maximum vertical displacement is about 4m. A large number of earthquake traces are to be found along the rupture zone, and the phenomena on the surface rupture are also various. Field investigation and analysis on the geological and geomorphological phenomena show that the formation age of the surface rupture is relatively young. A series of linear arranged, triangular facets, fault scarps, fault springs, dislocated gullies, twisted mountain ridges, sag-ponds, dislocated ridges, etc. exist along the fault. Based on the analysis of field investigation and the data available, we believe that the surface rupture is due to a strong earthquake in the history of this area. And it is inferred that the Madoi- Gade fault within the Bayan Har block has been highly active since Late Quaternary and may still be active nowadays.

A Statistical Analysis on Recent Tidal Triggering of the Earthquake in the Tianshan Seismic Zone

A statistical analysis is done to study the spatio-temporai features of earthquake activity in the Tianshan seismic belt triggered by tide, based on Schuster＇s test. The data we choose is the ML ≥2. 0 earthquakes from January 1, 2010 to August 31, 2012 in eastern Tianshan, and the calculation is on tidal body stress. The results show that the p-value based on the time window smoothing of Schuster＇s test corresponds better with the strong earthquakes in the Tianshan seismic belt, especially for a long time before the November 1, 2011 Nilka Ms6. 0 earthquake, when the p-value of the Schuster＇s test was always lower than the threshold of 0. 05 for tidal trigger of earthquake, but after the Niika Ms6. 0 earthquake, that value was quickly restored to a high level, which reflects a close relationship between the Nilka Ms6. 0 earthquake and the Earth tide. According to the p-value based on the spatial window smoothing of Schuster＇s test, the Nilka Ms6. 0 earthquake was at or near the tidal triggering area. Thus we can see from the spatio-temporal results that the Nilka Ms6. 0 earthquake was obviously triggered by Earth fide.

Statistical Analysis on Depth Distribution Model of Earthquake Hypocenters

In order to improve reliability of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, shallow earthquake (depth <70 km) data, recorded with orientation precision grades 1 and 2 by modern instrument and containing depth information after 1970, are selected as statistical samples, meanwhile, North China seismic region, Central China seismic region, South China seismic region, Xinjiang seismic region and Qinghai-Xizang Plateau seismic region are chosen as statistical units to study the depth distribution characteristics of shallow earthquakes. Considering the differences of depth distribution characteristics of earthquakes with different magnitudes, the following magnitude intervals are adopted to analyze earthquakes with different magnitude scales, respectively: M S=2.0～2.9, M S=3.0～3.9, M S=4.0～4.9, M S=5.0～5.9 and M S=6.0～6.9. The results show that hypocenter depths are normally distributed by and large around the mean depth of the corresponding seismic region. The probabilistic distribution curves of earthquake depth in West China are wider than those in East China. The probabilistic distribution deviation, σ, of West China is greater than those of East China, that is, earthquakes in West China have a wider range in terms of depth. There is also a tendency that the absolute value of mean hypocenter depth increases with the magnitude by and large.