碳酸盐岩裂缝性储层地震预测方法

近年的地震研究结果表明，对于裂缝性储层，地震纵波同样具有方位各向异性。根据向赂异性地层介质的基本特性，介绍了利用地震纵波资料研究储层波动力学特征参数的方位横向变化规律和预测碳酸盐储层裂缝发育带的层速度法和振幅反演法。

地震学异常度预测法在天山及周边地区的应用

以我国南北天山、塔里木盆地及昆仑山脉北缘地区的地震学资料为例 ,运用地震学异常度预测法 ,对由地震频度 N值、蠕变值、缺震值、η值、Rm 值和 GL值等地震学预报参量进行空间扫描所得出的数据进行综合异常判定 ,得出了近几年的综合预测图。内符检验结果表明 :(1)除了新疆、青海、西藏三省区交界地区由于地震台网较稀而监控能力偏低外 ,其他地区 ,对于 5级以上地震的监控能力在综合预测图上可以达到 80 %以上 ,6级以上地震在综合预测图上也均有较好的异常显示。 (2 )所有异常区有 5级以上地震的概率为 73.7% ;大于 2°× 2°的大异常区所对应的 6级以上地震的概率为55.6 %。

地震学异常度预测法的年度预测与检验

采用作者提出的地震学异常度预测法 ,取地震频度和蠕变量两个完全独立的地震学参量 ,在时间序列的变化上演化出 10个判断地震学异常的预测参量 ,以待定系数法和平均法两种数学模型组成所有空间扫描点的数字预测解析式 ,形成 2 0 0 2年度的空间预测图像。经 1998～ 2 0 0 1年四年的预测结果检验 。

Prediction of the Hualian Earthquakes in Taiwan and an Extended Discussion on the Method of Commensurability

The method of commensurability was used by the authors to predict the great earthquake of magnitude 7.5 that occurred on March 31,2002 in Taiwan 70km away from Hualian. Analyzing the earthquakes of magnitude≥7.0 which occurred in the Hualian area of Taiwan within the 20th century, the authors discovered that the occurrences of the earthquakes are commensurable. The earthquakes of magnitude 7.6 which occurred in Hualian of Taiwan, on September 20th, 1999 and of magnitude 7.5 which occurred 70 km away from Hualian, on March 31th, 2002 appeared at the commensurable point of K=2 and the period times the golden section, respectively. An extended discussion is carried out on the method of commensurability and its implied physical significance, especially on the contribution of the commensurable periodic extension made by Prof. Weng Wenbo.

Seismological method for prediction of areal rockbursts in deep mine with seismic source mechanism and unstable failure theory

The research on the rock burst prediction was made on the basis of seismology,rock mechanics and the data from Dongguashan Copper Mine(DCM) ,the deepest metal mine in China.The seismic responses to mining in DCM were investigated through the analyses of the spatio-temporal distribution of hypocenters,apparent stress and displacement of seismic events,and the process of the generation of hazardous seismicity in DCM was studied in the framework of the theory of asperity in the seismic source mechanism.A method of locating areas with hazardous seismicity and a conceptual model of hazardous seismic nucleation in DCM were proposed.A criterion of rockburst prediction was analyzed theoretically in the framework of unstable failure theories,and consequently,the rate of change in the ratio of the seismic stiffness of rock in a seismic nucleation area to that in surrounding area,dS/dt,is defined as an index of the rockburst prediction.The possibility of a rockburst will increase if dS/dt>0,and the possibility of rock burst will decrease if dS/dt<0.The correctness of these methods is demonstrated by analyses of rock failure cases in DCM.

Seismic attributes optimization and application in reservoir prediction

Petroleum geophysicists recognize that many parameters related to oil and gas reservoirs are predicted using seismic attribute data. However, how best to optimize the seismic attributes, predict the character of thin sandstone reservoirs, and enhance the reservoir description accuracy is an important goal for geologists and geophysicists. Based on the theory of main component analysis, we present a new optimization method, called constrained main component analysis. Modeling estimates and real application in an oilfield show that it can enhance reservoir prediction accuracy and has better applicability.

A Study on the Prediction Method of Strong Earthquakes Based on Dynamic Seismicity Patterns with Dynamic Implications

Seismic gap method is one of the effective earthquake prediction methods using seismicity patterns. However, this method has some limitations and uncertainty when using it singly in predicting earthquakes. This paper puts forward the prediction method using the dynamic seismicity pattern with dynamic implications. This method considers the formation and evolution of the seismic gap on the basis of plate movement and structural characteristics. Through analysis of 26 cases of earthquakes of MS≥5.0 occurring in East China and South China, this paper obtains the relationship between the main shock with seismic gap and active fault's location, as well as the relationship between the seismic gap and location and strike of active faults. Meanwhile, this paper provides a dynamic explanation of the differences in the formation and evolution patterns of the seismic gap between the two regions, thus providing the physical basis for and reducing the uncertainty of predicting earthquakes using the seismic gap method.

Discussion on Earthquake Forecasting and Early Warning

Through analysis of natural and social attributes of earthquake forecasting,the relationship between the natural and social attributes of earthquake forecasting(early warning)has been discussed.Regarding the natural attributes of earthquake forecasting,it only attempts to forecast the magnitude,location and occurrence time of future earthquake based on the analysis of observational data and relevant theories and taking into consideration the present understanding of seismogeny and earthquake generation.It need not consider the consequences an earthquake forecast involves,and its purpose is to check out the level of scientific understanding of earthquakes.In respect of the social aspect of earthquake forecasting,people also focus on the consequence that the forecasting involves,in addition to its natural aspect,such as the uncertainty of earthquake prediction itself,the impact of earthquake prediction,and the earthquake resistant capability of structures(buildings),lifeline works,etc.In a word,it highlights the risk of earthquake forecasting and tries to mitigate the earthquake hazard as much as possible.In this paper,the authors also discuss the scientific and social challenges faced in earthquake prediction and analyze preliminarily the meanings and content of earthquake early warning.

Techniques for Surveying Urban Active Faults by Seismic Methods

Using the seismic method to detect active faults directly below cities is an irreplaceable prospecting technique. The seismic method can precisely determine the fault position. Seismic method itself can hardly determine the geological age of fault. However, by considering in connection with the borehole data and the standard geological cross-section of the surveyed area, the geological age of reflected wave group can be qualitatively (or semi-quantitatively) determined from the seismic depth profile. To determine the upper terminal point of active faults directly below city, it is necessary to use the high-resolution seismic reflection technique. To effectively determine the geometric feature of deep faults, especially to determine the relation between deep and shallow fracture structures, the seismic reflection method is better than the seismic refraction method.

Current Earthquake Early Warning Technology and Its Development in China

Earthquake Early Warning ( EEW) has come to attention,as earthquake prediction is still unreliable. The paper comprehensively illustrates the research status and important issues of EEW from the aspects of concept,composition and method. By analyzing the status of EEW in China,we find that the essential requirements have been met for building earthquake early warning systems in the country in terms of government and social needs, network construction and basic research. The technical difficulties and non-technical challenges in implementing EEW in China are evaluated, and some suggestions are proposed regarding the relevant legal measures,public education and protection against earthquake disasters. so as to bring into full play the role of the EEW system in earthquake disaster prevention and reduction.