The average rainfall in whole growth period of winter wheat to plus or minus several times of sample variance was used to define different grades of drought.The reduction rate of production in meteorological which was...The average rainfall in whole growth period of winter wheat to plus or minus several times of sample variance was used to define different grades of drought.The reduction rate of production in meteorological which was equal to or greater than the rate of 3% was taken as standards to define wheat drought disaster years.The average reduction ratio of production in the wheat drought years in Hebei-Shandong-Henan was calculated.The frequency distribution rule of wheat in different drought disaster strength of winter wheat in Hebei-Shandong-Henan was analyzed.According to the conception and calculation method of drought disaster risk index of winter wheat,the regional distribution law of drought disaster risk index of winter wheat was analyzed.The division technical methods of winter wheat drought disaster risk zones in Hebei-Shandong-Henan under the irrigated conditions were put forward.Taking the average reduction rate of production in drought years,drought disaster risk index and precipitation of winter wheat in growth periods as indices,using the statistical analysis and overlay function of GIS,the production reduction risk of winter wheat caused by drought disaster in winter wheat zones of Hebei-Shandong-Henan was divided and evaluated.The risk evaluation of production reduction of winter wheat in different risk zones under different climate conditions was realized.The disaster prevention and mitigation measures of winter wheat drought were given.展开更多
THE Loess Plateau of Shaanxi Province has traditionally been a poverty-stricken area.Local farmers would grow grains like winter wheat and spring corn,and every July,August,and September plow the fields and collect ra...THE Loess Plateau of Shaanxi Province has traditionally been a poverty-stricken area.Local farmers would grow grains like winter wheat and spring corn,and every July,August,and September plow the fields and collect rain water.The plateau featured desolate scenery with dry,powdery,wind-blown soil,with barely a trace of green.展开更多
The land fallow policy was adopted by central and local governments to encourage the abandonment of water-intensive crops, such as winter wheat, in groundwater over-exploited areas. At the same time, since the 1990s, ...The land fallow policy was adopted by central and local governments to encourage the abandonment of water-intensive crops, such as winter wheat, in groundwater over-exploited areas. At the same time, since the 1990s, many households in the North China Plain （NCP） have chosen to replace the winter wheat and summer maize double-cropping system with the spring maize single-cropping system. Therefore, it is crucial to identify target land parcels for winter wheat abandonment and to design reasonable and proper standards for ecological compensation prior to the implementation of the land fallow policy in the NCP. In this study, multi-level Iogit models were used with household survey data in order to detect determinants across land parcel, household and village levels on household cropping system decisions; the opportunity costs for winter wheat abandonment were also calculated using cost-benefit analysis. The results show that： （1） land quality and irrigation condition at parcel level are two essential elements influencing household cropping system decisions. Nearly 70% of the total area of poor land and more than 90% of the total area of unirrigated land has suffered winter wheat abandonment. Target land parcels for the land fallow policy should be those that are irrigated and of high quality. （2） There were no significant differences between net profits from spring maize and summer maize under similar farming conditions, and the opportunity cost for winter wheat abandonment should be equal to the net profit of winter wheat. （3） The primary purpose of the land fallow policy is to induce groundwater recovery and restoration as a preliminary stage. A higher level of 350 yuan/mu is recommended as subsidy for ecological compensation at this stage. Later, the primary purpose of the policy should be a transition to a balance between exploitation and supplementation of water resources, and a lower level of 280 yuan/mu is recommended as a subsidy at this stage.展开更多
基金Supported by The Ministry of Finance,Meteorological Industry Spe-cific(GYHY200706030)China Meteorological Administration 2009 Budget Item(CMATG2009M32)~~
文摘The average rainfall in whole growth period of winter wheat to plus or minus several times of sample variance was used to define different grades of drought.The reduction rate of production in meteorological which was equal to or greater than the rate of 3% was taken as standards to define wheat drought disaster years.The average reduction ratio of production in the wheat drought years in Hebei-Shandong-Henan was calculated.The frequency distribution rule of wheat in different drought disaster strength of winter wheat in Hebei-Shandong-Henan was analyzed.According to the conception and calculation method of drought disaster risk index of winter wheat,the regional distribution law of drought disaster risk index of winter wheat was analyzed.The division technical methods of winter wheat drought disaster risk zones in Hebei-Shandong-Henan under the irrigated conditions were put forward.Taking the average reduction rate of production in drought years,drought disaster risk index and precipitation of winter wheat in growth periods as indices,using the statistical analysis and overlay function of GIS,the production reduction risk of winter wheat caused by drought disaster in winter wheat zones of Hebei-Shandong-Henan was divided and evaluated.The risk evaluation of production reduction of winter wheat in different risk zones under different climate conditions was realized.The disaster prevention and mitigation measures of winter wheat drought were given.
文摘THE Loess Plateau of Shaanxi Province has traditionally been a poverty-stricken area.Local farmers would grow grains like winter wheat and spring corn,and every July,August,and September plow the fields and collect rain water.The plateau featured desolate scenery with dry,powdery,wind-blown soil,with barely a trace of green.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41571095,No.41271119
文摘The land fallow policy was adopted by central and local governments to encourage the abandonment of water-intensive crops, such as winter wheat, in groundwater over-exploited areas. At the same time, since the 1990s, many households in the North China Plain （NCP） have chosen to replace the winter wheat and summer maize double-cropping system with the spring maize single-cropping system. Therefore, it is crucial to identify target land parcels for winter wheat abandonment and to design reasonable and proper standards for ecological compensation prior to the implementation of the land fallow policy in the NCP. In this study, multi-level Iogit models were used with household survey data in order to detect determinants across land parcel, household and village levels on household cropping system decisions; the opportunity costs for winter wheat abandonment were also calculated using cost-benefit analysis. The results show that： （1） land quality and irrigation condition at parcel level are two essential elements influencing household cropping system decisions. Nearly 70% of the total area of poor land and more than 90% of the total area of unirrigated land has suffered winter wheat abandonment. Target land parcels for the land fallow policy should be those that are irrigated and of high quality. （2） There were no significant differences between net profits from spring maize and summer maize under similar farming conditions, and the opportunity cost for winter wheat abandonment should be equal to the net profit of winter wheat. （3） The primary purpose of the land fallow policy is to induce groundwater recovery and restoration as a preliminary stage. A higher level of 350 yuan/mu is recommended as subsidy for ecological compensation at this stage. Later, the primary purpose of the policy should be a transition to a balance between exploitation and supplementation of water resources, and a lower level of 280 yuan/mu is recommended as a subsidy at this stage.
